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I think far more goes on behind the scenes than you could ever imagine .
The recent Swiss peg removal was deemed to be a fiasco , but I suspect it was well thought out and agreed with the ECB well in advance .
Why ? Well I don’t think it’s coincidence that one of the largest holders of EU bonds are the Swiss . Hence , the Swiss agree to drop the peg , providing they can sell their bonds back to the ECB . The hundreds of millions lost on the peg are miraculously replaced by the profits made on the bonds .
The Swiss win , as they don’t lose a cent and the peg is gone . The ECB win , as they don’t want the peg and they get to initiate QE , without worrying about who is going to sell them the bonds – after all most banks won’t as they get cash in return yielding less than zero . The whole QE thing in Europe will be an illusion , but not before the DAX has got to 13,xxx -lol
Anyway , you’ll be pleased to hear I’ve gone long gold over the last few days . As long as 1180 holds , it looks interesting…
good luck with that cimac . sticking to longs only in Europe , given the likely flows.
Won’t be surprised if the dax eventually prints 13,xxx. Just need another dip to get in again.
scalped a few pts yesterday & have raised the stop on my swing trades . want to see 2102 , then a big test at 2085/6 before changing course.
shorted spx 2115 and ftse ath.
will stop out above 2120.
if we can’t close negative tonight , I think another 20-30 pts are coming this week and MUCH high prices longer term. If we close neg later , bears have chance of a 1-2 wk retrace imo.
for now , decent risk/reward…with a +/-5 pt stop.
gold carnage today ….just closed a few gold miner shorts , but alas not short the metal.
1200 will be interesting if we get there
ur target hit last night Baaa 2025, thiought u banked by now…I missed it
had some limits hit , but still have most of original position…
inflexion point now & feeling like we’re about to tank or take off to the upside. betting the former for now…
Europe weak this morning , so 6900 still put off for another day
spoos shorts underwater by 8 pts and looking as if spx wants a crack at either 2065 or 2075. will add thereabouts if we get a spike tomorrow.
be nice if the ftse printed 6900 in the morning…maybe dax 11000 too
nice pop last night gave a perfect fib short entry into spoos and added ftse at 6900 and o/night a large asx short.
first stop for a retrace should be 2025, but hoping for more into payrolls
closed my dax longs on limits this morning and now closed my spoos longs , which I’ve been running for a few weeks from 1990
not shorting Europe for all the tea in china , but building a short term s&p short today , looking for another dip into payrolls . who knows beyond that , but still higher prices more likely imo…
also building an asx short position – that looks much better risk/reward than most other indices and providing we don’t take out 5800 , I may keep that one for a while .
shame about gold, …
the Dax is just mad – every 20 pt dip gets bought back up. On about my 20th dip trade for the day -lol .
Think this volatility is all about a few marginal sellers of US stocks reinvesting into Europe . After all , they saw the Nikkei go up 40% on QE , so it’s got to be the same right!
crude not helping either – which means the GDP tomorrow should see a +20/-20 day . take your pick which way…
got a rather larger dip than I was planning for -lol
closed all remaining short hedges now , so long dax and s&P .
looks like some rotation from US stocks into core Europe…if it persists , the Dax might have a bit to go…
took off more shorts & added to dax long. might be a bit bumpy today , but still a chance of new highs by Friday/Monday imo……
