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“both 2012 and 2013 were gap up years , where the opening gap was never recovered .
last consecutive gap up and go occurrence was 1975 and 1976.
1977 also saw the opening gap never recovered …this time down.
2014……..?????
good stats with v low risk ,so went 200% swing short at the close on 31/12/13 and added dax and ftse shorts this morning . stops just above Friday’s highs .
my last attempt at a swing short cost me 10 pts and we’ll see if we get the gap down today to set it up.
in any event will look to reduce the shorts to lock something in if we trade negative for 1-3 days , before the inevitable bounce.
Good Luck and HNY”
it’s a moot point whether this is still in play – cash gap filled , futures backtested and some wider indices exceeded , some not ….
anyway , I’ve just closed my 31/12/13 swing position . Lots of eyes in the 1770’s , probably too many , so better to take the profit and try not be too clever.
might have a stab long at 1775 ish , but otherwise flat pending the next swing short
apologies gecko – I don’t have the time I used to and hence only post infrequently when the ideas seem worth sharing. leave the day to day stuff to K now!
if today’s gap holds then I hope we stay in a range of 1550-1850 all year. if it doesn’t then I guess we could see 1890/1900 before a correction. Jan/Feb might get v volatile imo
have cut half my dax short here to make sure I have a + result , but will run the rest for a bit.
be interesting to see where K has support – maybe in the low 181x’s if it wants to follow through before a bigger bounce….
both 2012 and 2013 were gap up years , where the opening gap was never recovered .
last consecutive gap up and go occurrence was 1975 and 1976.
1977 also saw the opening gap never recovered …this time down.
2014……..?????
good stats with v low risk ,so went 200% swing short at the close on 31/12/13 and added dax and ftse shorts this morning . stops just above Friday’s highs .
my last attempt at a swing short cost me 10 pts and we’ll see if we get the gap down today to set it up.
in any event will look to reduce the shorts to lock something in if we trade negative for 1-3 days , before the inevitable bounce.
Good Luck and HNY
looking to short for a crooks hr sell-off later to set up a dddd tomorrow. a close below the 68/70 cash level should be enough to signal some form of high is in
nice one paps & there might still be some expiry nonsense into the close to get you the real cigar.
buying corn here – perfect bottoming pattern and low risk with a stop below the low of three days ago . long some sugar also , but running this tighter as it’s a few cents lower than a perfect 2/b.
most interesting move of the day was the sell off in JGB’s. Might be nowt , but one to watch early doors next week. catalyst maybe.
I was (at least) one degree out in my ss entry , but averaged at 1772 now and staying put with that .
I see all the reasons for 177x and clearly anything is possible .
Next week and the delayed release of all the data looks key to a reversal or an acceleration and i’m prepared to risk a few handles on a scale-in , having no idea where it will ultimately top. But I have a plan with a min hit of 1744 , so that’s where I’ll start .
I do think we’ll see 1800 and more in 2014 after everyone is surprised by the dip and thinks the bull is over ….
Mind you , I ‘m sure the Systems have it all mapped out in a rather more defined way!
best regards
afternoon all,
for what little it’s worth, I’m looking at a turn windown from here to tuesday and hoping to see 1744cash min. If it happens( & possibly if it doesn’t) , I want to be swing short to catch what I expect to be the largest decline since the 1074 low . Not sure I want to be posting targets , but the largest intra-period decline was c160 pts and it should exceed that.
don’t think the bull is over , but a mix of rubbish earnings , rate issues and macro nonsense should be sufficient to get it going & it might be quite speedy.
nice to see you’re still on form K
