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for the bugs here …..long platinum from the 1080’s . It’s been leading the other precious metals & looks to me like we could have put in a medium term low last few days . wrong much below 1070 so I deemed risk/reward was decent.
not sure about gold as the pattern suggests one more low – which would be unsurprising given how plat has been leading.
In 5 out of last 6 years , we’ve seen a dip into the April expiry . In 4/5 of those the low came on the Monday after expiry , the 5th on the Friday of expiry week . The window for a high before that dip was 4th-14th April . Yesterday’s high came in on the 13th… Size of the dip is c 2.5-4.5% . An “average ” 3% would get us to the 2040 support level, the level targeted ( & failed) from last week. In the year this didn’t work, there was an early month dip of 4% which bottomed on the 11th. Largest high to low dip this month is less than 1% so far . either this is statistical nonsense or we have a 2-3% dip due in the next 5 sessions … I remain short & a tad u/water.
got a 2% dip and closed two thirds of my shorts on Friday. If we rally into tomorrow , I shall prob add them back…have a cit due Friday/Monday fwiw
added shorts back at 2109 – wrong much above 2112
took 12 pts from a quarter position. stop on the rest at 2114, to lock some in . next few days should be interesting…
pulled my stop for now , as it feels like just a stop run. pleased I’ve banked along the way. thought the cit was a low , maybe a high -lol
In 5 out of last 6 years , we’ve seen a dip into the April expiry . In 4/5 of those the low came on the Monday after expiry , the 5th on the Friday of expiry week . The window for a high before that dip was 4th-14th April . Yesterday’s high came in on the 13th… Size of the dip is c 2.5-4.5% . An “average ” 3% would get us to the 2040 support level, the level targeted ( & failed) from last week. In the year this didn’t work, there was an early month dip of 4% which bottomed on the 11th. Largest high to low dip this month is less than 1% so far . either this is statistical nonsense or we have a 2-3% dip due in the next 5 sessions … I remain short & a tad u/water.
got a 2% dip and closed two thirds of my shorts on Friday. If we rally into tomorrow , I shall prob add them back…have a cit due Friday/Monday fwiw
added shorts back at 2109 – wrong much above 2112
took 12 pts from a quarter position. stop on the rest at 2114, to lock some in . next few days should be interesting…
In 5 out of last 6 years , we’ve seen a dip into the April expiry . In 4/5 of those the low came on the Monday after expiry , the 5th on the Friday of expiry week . The window for a high before that dip was 4th-14th April . Yesterday’s high came in on the 13th… Size of the dip is c 2.5-4.5% . An “average ” 3% would get us to the 2040 support level, the level targeted ( & failed) from last week. In the year this didn’t work, there was an early month dip of 4% which bottomed on the 11th. Largest high to low dip this month is less than 1% so far . either this is statistical nonsense or we have a 2-3% dip due in the next 5 sessions … I remain short & a tad u/water.
got a 2% dip and closed two thirds of my shorts on Friday. If we rally into tomorrow , I shall prob add them back…have a cit due Friday/Monday fwiw
added shorts back at 2109 – wrong much above 2112
In 5 out of last 6 years , we’ve seen a dip into the April expiry . In 4/5 of those the low came on the Monday after expiry , the 5th on the Friday of expiry week . The window for a high before that dip was 4th-14th April . Yesterday’s high came in on the 13th… Size of the dip is c 2.5-4.5% . An “average ” 3% would get us to the 2040 support level, the level targeted ( & failed) from last week. In the year this didn’t work, there was an early month dip of 4% which bottomed on the 11th. Largest high to low dip this month is less than 1% so far . either this is statistical nonsense or we have a 2-3% dip due in the next 5 sessions … I remain short & a tad u/water.
got a 2% dip and closed two thirds of my shorts on Friday. If we rally into tomorrow , I shall prob add them back…have a cit due Friday/Monday fwiw
In 5 out of last 6 years , we’ve seen a dip into the April expiry . In 4/5 of those the low came on the Monday after expiry , the 5th on the Friday of expiry week . The window for a high before that dip was 4th-14th April . Yesterday’s high came in on the 13th…
Size of the dip is c 2.5-4.5% . An “average ” 3% would get us to the 2040 support level, the level targeted ( & failed) from last week.
In the year this didn’t work, there was an early month dip of 4% which bottomed on the 11th.
Largest high to low dip this month is less than 1% so far .
either this is statistical nonsense or we have a 2-3% dip due in the next 5 sessions …
I remain short & a tad u/water.
system said we’d print sub 2056 by today & was clearly wrong – first failure in several years . will give shorts a bit more room into Monday/Tuesday, but this grind/chop higher could be persistent.
spx system post payrolls and after a quarterly expiration says high of the week in at y’days high and should now be down into a thurs/probably Friday low.
Hence , shorted y’day all day and hope to close every short this Friday on a dip below 2040.
depending on the shape of any fall this week , that may be all bears get for a while .
either that or the system is kaput.
would’ve rather seen a gap down & go today . still , there is a signal for a 205x print or lower by Friday and I’m short for that , as the odds are good( nothing in life is certain) maybe the odds blow-up this time round , but for now I’ll only reconsider on a close above 2120.
system nailed it & closed half my shorts for 54 pts this morning. hope for a gap fill later , then time to see if she wants a 2020 print tomorrow….
added bit back on the fill..should close lower than this later & worth a shot imo
would’ve rather seen a gap down & go today . still , there is a signal for a 205x print or lower by Friday and I’m short for that , as the odds are good( nothing in life is certain) maybe the odds blow-up this time round , but for now I’ll only reconsider on a close above 2120.
system nailed it & closed half my shorts for 54 pts this morning. hope for a gap fill later , then time to see if she wants a 2020 print tomorrow….
would’ve rather seen a gap down & go today .
still , there is a signal for a 205x print or lower by Friday and I’m short for that , as the odds are good( nothing in life is certain)
maybe the odds blow-up this time round , but for now I’ll only reconsider on a close above 2120.
half size short on the dax 12130 . will add the rest on another pop in the morning if it comes. high risk , but been waiting for the last +2000 pts …
cut half of it for 90 pts, leave the (small) balance to run…
half size short on the dax 12130 . will add the rest on another pop in the morning if it comes.
high risk , but been waiting for the last +2000 pts …
