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ASX 200 @ Wed 20 May 15 – Intraday
From May 6th: “The count shown from the March 3rd high (5996) projects a bottom for this move around 5380 (green horizontal).”
The DAILY chart shows an alternative count, elevating the positions of waves-i and -ii to better account for the price action to date.
The initial bottoming target for this move (lower green horizontal) rises to 5520 (previously 5380). The upper green horizontal marks the level where wave-v equals wave-i.
The internal wave count for wave-v suggests this pullback could already be complete at today’s low.
Confirmation of the larger count remains a breach of the wave-4 low, well below at 5122 (magenta horizontal).
Light Crude @ Wed 6 May 15
From December 12th: “Further selling would favour the more bearish count shown, projecting an eventual bottom around US$15.”
See the MONTHLY chart. The prospective 3rd wave bottomed at US$43.58 late in January. The 3rd was 172% of the 1st (typically 162.8%).
If the larger count shown is correct the current 4th wave rally is expected to top soon. The green horizontal at US$64 marks the typical 30% retracement of the 3rd. It’s worth noting that 4th waves sometimes play out as triangles.
If the 4th tops at US$64 the target range for the eventual bottom would be US$24 – US$15.
ASX 200 @ Wed 6 May 15
From March 3rd: “A breach of the February 13th low at 5739 (a potential 4th wave low) would increase confidence in this count.”
Today’s price action took out that 5739 low (blue horizontal).
Confirmation of the larger count remains a breach of the wave-4 low, well below at 5122 (magenta horizontal).
The count shown from the March 3rd high (5996) projects a bottom for this move around 5380 (green horizontal).
SPX @ Tue 28 Apr 15 … and DAX @ Fri 17 Apr 15
See the MONTHLY charts. The starting point for the wave-(C) ending diagonal has been repositioned on both charts from the 2010 to the 2009 pivot low to better account for the developing price action.
For the SPX the initial topping target for wave-(C ) is 2130, based on wave-1’s length (red horizontal).
The latest high was 2125 on April 27th.For the DAX, the initial topping target for wave-(C ) is 12260 (red horizontal).
The latest high was 12389 on April 10th.At the latest highs, the ratios of the actionary waves (1:3:5) were:
• SPX – 100 : 188 : 61 (typically 100 : 162-200 : 62-100);
• DAX – 100 : 165 : 131.Confirmation of a lasting top is a breach of the 4th wave low (magenta horizontal), well below at:
• SPX – 1820;
• DAX – 8356.ASX 200 @ Tue 3 Mar 15
The MONTHLY chart shows an alternative count for the price action from the August 2011 low (3765) that better accounts for the recent price action.
While it doesn’t alter the larger ending diagonal pattern it does elevate the target range for the top to 5820 – 5940 (red horizontals) from 5482 – 5825 previously.
The index printed a 5996 high today, very close to a Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of the GFC sell-off. At today’s high the ratio of waves 1:3:5 is 100:165:107, very close to the ideal ratio of 100:163:100.
A breach of the February 13th low at 5739 (a potential 4th wave low) would increase confidence in this count.
Confirmation of the larger count reverts to a breach of the 4th wave low at 5122 (magenta horizontal).
Interesting chart … if interested, use the link below to see the article:
ASX 200 @ Fri 6 Feb 15 – Intraday
From the December 8th update: “ … a breach of last February’s 5052 wave-4 low would likely confirm that the rally from March 2009 has topped.”
5052 was not breached and the index advanced impressively over the intervening two months.A modification to the established count is necessitated by the recent price action.
The terminus of the 4th wave triangle shifts to the 5142 Dec 2014 low (previously 5052 Feb 2014 low). Both are valid termini for the triangle but 5142 is a better fit to the pattern that has developed since.
Although the initial topping target (based on the length of wave-1) remains unchanged at 5482, the other element of the topping range increases by the 90 point difference between the 4th wave triangle termini, that is from 5735 to 5825 (where wave-5 equals wave-1).
The WEEKLY chart shows the index printing a 5850 high today where w5 is 25 points or 3.7% longer than w1, a good place for caution while awaiting evidence of a top.
The target range is marked by red horizontals.
A breach of December’s 5142 wave-4 low (magenta horizontal) would likely confirm that the rally from March 2009 has topped.
Light Crude @ Fri 12 Dec 14
From the 3rd January 2014 update: “If a C wave is in play here, the 1st and 2nd waves shown project a US$61 bottoming target (35% below today’s close).”
Light crude plunged through that $61 target on Wednesday (red horizontal).
For that count (shown in grey) to remain viable the 4th and 5th must play out into a bottom around this level; the MONTHLY chart shows the significant diagonal and horizontal support here.
Further selling that takes out that support would favour the more bearish count shown on the chart, a count that projects an eventual bottom around US$15 (blue horizontal). Light crude’s last secular bear market bottomed at US$10.65 late in 1998.
ASX 200 @ Mon 8 Dec 14
From the September 2nd post: “ … the (EW) topping range for the count shown is 5480 – 5735 (red horizontals). Price must not advance significantly beyond 5735 and must eventually take out the 5052 4th wave terminus for this count to remain viable (magenta horizontal).”
The WEEKLY chart shows the index topping in the target range at 5680 on August 21st.
The momentum change and price action since suggest that an A-B-C correction could be in play here, with A and B done and the first of C’s five waves now underway (in an A-B-C move Elliott Wave Theory posits that waves A & B are always ‘threes’ and C is always a ‘five’).
A breach of the 5122 wave-A low would boost confidence in this count; a breach of last February’s 5052 wave-4 low would likely confirm that the rally from March 2009 has topped.
At this early stage only a low confidence guess at where the larger count might be heading is possible. If the 5052 wave-4 low is taken out look for this move to bottom around 4825 (red horizontal on chart). In the event that this move turns out to be just wave-1 of C, look for an eventual wave-C bottom around 3730.
ASX 200 @ Tue 2 Sep 14
The preferred EW count has a three wave advance in play from March 2009 (A-B-C). There is no change to the 5480 initial topping target for wave-C (based on the length of the 1st wave).
In a three wave move wave C is always a ‘five’. Because triangles only develop as the 4th wave in a ‘five’, their appearance in this position adds confidence to the larger count.
See the attached weekly chart. A 4th wave triangle appears to have completed at last February’s 5052 low.
Once the 4th completes, the other element of the topping target range is calculated by adding the length of the 1st wave to the terminus of the 4th, that is 683 + 5052 = 5735.
So the topping range for the count shown is 5480 – 5735 (red horizontals).
Price must not advance significantly beyond 5735 and must eventually take out the 5052 4th wave terminus for this count to remain viable (magenta horizontal).
Copper @ Fri 14 Mar 14
This week’s breach of the June 2013 low (wave-1) supports the count identified in the January 3rd update: “ … the 1st and 2nd waves shown project a bottoming target of US146c per pound (56% below today’s close)”.The MONTHLY chart counts the action since the top on May 1st 2006 as a series of 3-wave moves. The red horizontal marks the US146c target.
Apple @ Fri 31 Jan 14
The WEEKLY chart shows one way to count the price action since the 705 ATH in September 2012.
The 3-wave sell-off labelled (A) bottomed in the support/resistance zone highlighted by the green rectangle.
The 3-wave rally labelled (B) could be complete following this week’s breach of C’s 4th wave low (magenta horizontal).
If bearish forces prevail, look for the 1st of a 5-wave (C) to also bottom in the green rectangle.
SPX @ Fri 24 Jan 14
The MONTHLY chart shows the preferred count, projecting a top around 1915 (superceding the earlier 1620 target). The SPX printed 1850 on January 15th.
The same count works for the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite, projecting tops around 17800 and 4150 respectively. The DJIA printed 16588 on December 31st and the Nasdaq 4246 on January 22nd.
A breach of the potential 4th wave low at SPX 1560 (magenta horizontal) would confirm the 3-wave rally from March 2009 is complete.
Copper & Light Crude @ Fri 3 Jan 14
Since its early 2011 all-time-high copper has traced out what counts well as A and B of a potential A-B-C corrective pattern; light crude sports the same pattern. See the WEEKLY charts.
If C waves are in play here, the 1st and 2nd waves shown on the charts project bottoming targets as follows:
• US 146 cents per pound for copper (56% below today’s close);
• US$61 per barrel for light crude (35% below today’s close).Note that C waves always comprise 5 sub-waves; the three advancing elements (1,3 & 5) typically relate to each other in the ratio 100:162:100.
