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about time. The daily DEC SPOOS has a lovely RSI divergence on that last peak, but I’ll be honest I have just put trailing stop in place based on the recent support here. I wouldn’t be surprised if they zoomed it back up for December expiry, its that CAUTION flag of a contract expiring soon time…
ASX 200 @ Mon 8 Dec 14
From the September 2nd post: “ … the (EW) topping range for the count shown is 5480 – 5735 (red horizontals). Price must not advance significantly beyond 5735 and must eventually take out the 5052 4th wave terminus for this count to remain viable (magenta horizontal).”
The WEEKLY chart shows the index topping in the target range at 5680 on August 21st.
The momentum change and price action since suggest that an A-B-C correction could be in play here, with A and B done and the first of C’s five waves now underway (in an A-B-C move Elliott Wave Theory posits that waves A & B are always ‘threes’ and C is always a ‘five’).
A breach of the 5122 wave-A low would boost confidence in this count; a breach of last February’s 5052 wave-4 low would likely confirm that the rally from March 2009 has topped.
At this early stage only a low confidence guess at where the larger count might be heading is possible. If the 5052 wave-4 low is taken out look for this move to bottom around 4825 (red horizontal on chart). In the event that this move turns out to be just wave-1 of C, look for an eventual wave-C bottom around 3730.
so trailing stop obviously taken out, just after open, tempted to re-enter based on downtrend from peak but will wait for now I think….. expiry on the horizon = craziness
Apologies for the outage guys. The idiots at our webhosts decided to do something really stupid.
As always a real pain to deal with total thicko’s
Glad we are back now.
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
Cheers WND
Well is the low for a buy into quad oe nailed or
have we just seen a high for a sell into quad oe.Now most of the time it’s a low for a buy but we
did see an example of the high for a sell since
we moved to the new kpad.Only time and care with stops will see traders
get through this sea of sharks.Never give up, never surrender.
Only time and care with stops will see traders get through this sea of sharks.
Nah, there’s no sharks, the crocs ate ’em all. 🙂
We may not see a bottom until Monday, would still give the crooks (oops sorry I mean traders), a week to rally it.
Well a roller coaster day….
made some points both ways but am losing out by 180 on an oil long at 61.30…. Grrrr….
Paps … the crocs and the sharks are eating each other lol. Vultures circling too 🙂 Wondering if I need my tin helmet yet… Might get one with stars on since it’s Christmas….
Still dropping like a stone, FTSE dropped 60 points and S&P 20 handles since 8.30
When the inevitable bounce does come it could be hard and fast like the one a week ago.
I mean a REAL bounce. I would expect a lot more than 30 handles when this reverses. 30 handles is just a bear flag
The daily chart still looks like nothing other than a blip down so far since the low back in October.
really impressed you got some long side earlier Dan, I did a trade this morning s&p +8 down to about +2 closed it, fell asleep on the sofa and woke at 3pm and wondered WTF had happened to warrant a vertical white candle !! I thought it might potentially grind up but went with the short option instead, phew…. Right now though I have no ideas and as the 19th (expiry) draws closer I think I might limit stakes to 25% normal because this isn’t moving around in baby steps !!
I put a little into natural gas today also (boost 3x fund in pension). I’m really tempted with oil 3x long fund in the pension but am scared to dip that toe, would like to see a massive red candle capitulation to end the run (obviously not while your long Dan).
US and euroland ooh quotes show we are likely to test a few
long stops early doors. Ftse 6400 – Dow 17500 – Dax 9700
and maybe just below where the peeps tend to keep stops
just a bit below big round numbers.Odds are in favour we bounce after the stops are eaten
but you would need big do da’s to play this.Never give up, never surrender.
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