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Welcome to the new month’s traders thread.
Never give up, never surrender.
As goes January so goes the year is one of many
variations on the idea that the first month
sets the tone for the next eleven.Never give up, never surrender.
well what a recovery over the pond!
paps, dont u think its a sign of strenght? u commented it didnt bode well or was that before the dipsters came in??
Gordon, I was referring to the sell-off from just before 8pm to close. The daily cash RTH rallied about 21 handles from low but then sold off half of it at the end. Not good, it needed to hang on to at least most of the gains. Could be a weak WNER Monday or even another drop. Than again, wtf do I know. 🙂
Early doors monday in europe will make it crystal clear
and the US should follow that lead re direction etc.I have a busy week away from the markets.
Never give up, never surrender.
<b>Today’s U.S. Blue Chip Stock Market Comments:</b>
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<b>Stocks fell hard again Friday, January 31<sup>st</sup>, ending a bad first month for 2014. The Industrials lost 878 points in January, about 5.3 percent. There was a great deal of power behind the decline, and it does not look over this weekend. All of our key Blue Chip indicators remain on a Sell signal this weekend. The NASDAQ 100 remains on a sideways signal. None of the internal measures look terribly oversold, no sign of selling capitulation, so that supports more downside over the short and intermediate term.</b>
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<b>This decline is coming on the heels of a December 2013 five observation Hindenburg Omen. All the major Bear Markets over the past 28 years have been accompanied by a Hindenburg Omen.</b>
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<b>The price action in January has largely been up and down, the oscillations violent, almost daily. In the charts on pages 34 and 35 we show that this is because both the Industrials and S&P 500 have had consecutive Declining Wedges, Sideways triangles, and are now poised for another Declining Wedge which should bring about a temporary reprieve, a countertrend bounce that lasts a few weeks. However, before that wave 2-up bounce, stocks look to need another decline, possibly into the coming February 7<sup>th</sup>phi mate turn date. We could see another couple hundred point drop in the Industrials before the pattern finishes, and wave 1-down of this new Bear Market in stocks completes.</b>
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<b>The NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline Line Indicator has formed, and completed, an ominous Rising Bearish Wedge pattern, telling us the majority of stocks are starting downtrends that should last a long time. See the chart on page 27.</b>
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<b>Our Primary Trend Indicator as of January 31<sup>st</sup>, 2014 has not yet confirmed a new Primary Bear market. That is not unusual, as confirmation usually takes at least 6 months to occur. Bear Markets usually start several months before this lagging indicator confirms. However, once a Sell signal is generated, and a Bear Market confirmation arrives, we know from past history that most of the Bear market decline will lie ahead of us, and not behind us. The indicator is useful for long term investors, as they will then know for sure to get out of stocks before a lot more damage arrives.</b>
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<b>We believe that Grand Supercycle degree wave {III} up completed in the Industrials on December 31<sup>st</sup>, 2013, and that Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down has started. Could this January decline be a fake out? Possibly, but we believe this decline is different from those seen over the past year. There are too many coincident topping patterns completing in major stock markets globally at the same time, along with bottoming patterns in Treasuries and precious metals, along with the aforementioned topping pattern in the NYAD. This at the same time the Fed is tapering its monetization of debt. What a shame. The Fed pumps $4.0 trillion of new cash into Wall Street over the past several years only to see it go up in flames, disintegr ate during this coming Bear Market. Can you imagine if that $4.0 trillion went into infrastructure, new highways, bridges, rails? Can you imagine the jobs that would have been created, the benefit to society that would have resulted, the benefit to commerce? What foolish domestic economic policy that has been followed. Now we pay the piper.</b>
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<b>The powerful decline coming off of these topping patterns is something we would expect to see at the start of the next Great Bear market and Economic Recession/Depression. All the pieces of the puzzle fit.</b>
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<b>Looking at an important Wedge pattern, Gold’s wave 4-up was a Rising Bearish Wedge, a five wave rally that looks complete (see chart on page 49), and should now be followed by a strong wave 5 down, toward 1,100ish. If this is correct, Gold has topped and a decline that lasts for several weeks has started.</b>
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<b>Once the bottom arrives in Gold, a significant rally, large intermediate degree wave 5-up, will begin. Once Gold has bottomed, Gold should streak for $3,000 an ounce or more (over many years) because it will be entering its large degree wave 5-up. Wave fives are typically the largest wave for precious metals. What could kick off a powerful rally in precious metals? A sharp decline in stocks driving folks to the safehaven of Gold would do the trick.</b><b><i><span style=”font-family: ‘Times New Roman’;”> McH</span></i></b>
Thanks for that hog, nothing really surprising there but good to read for confirmation of one’s own thoughts. i posted on here two or three weeks ago that a huge decline was about to start – and it has.
We are only in wave A yet – wait until wave C gets going !! Hope you’ve all got hard hats at the ready. 🙂
Looking at the Ftse over the weekend and I still think
we are trying somekind of retrace from which we get a
good short entry.Timing is everything and tricky.
Never give up, never surrender.
Ftse bulls still have a chance of holding the friday lod
but they now need a ‘c’ to complete an ‘abc’ retrace
and that needs legs into 6650 zone.No trades for me as too busy.
Never give up, never surrender.
I doubt there will be many Ftse longs held overnight
if this US whacking day continues 🙂Cable being seen to aswell.
Never give up, never surrender.
One for Pap, could the ‘B’ wave of an ABC correction in ES be the sideways to slightly down chop we’ve had since the 27<sup>th</sup>? And have we started ‘C’ with today’s break of approx 1760?
Yup. Maybe Dax gonna copy Nikkei and do a 10% retrace ? Or are we gonna get an afternoon WNER bouncy bouncy !
Vrost, Yes I suspect we are now in c of A, B up to come at some point then the big one, C down, get yer hard hat ready.
My guess is that it has a MINIMUM of another 30 handles to fall before c of A is complete.
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