- This topic has 210 replies, 4 voices, and was last updated 4 years, 10 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Small short Dow at 26800 … stop 28000 … limit 18000
Reasons as per previous posts.
Stop and limit are just for completeness.
Never give up, never surrender.
“We are in the midst of several contradictory geocosmic signatures. The major aspect looming ahead is that third and final passage of the Jupiter/Neptune waning square on September 21. Between September 8 and 14, both the Sun and Mars will make a mutable T-square to the Jupiter/Neptune square. Last week, September 2-4, Venus did the same. This may be the geocosmic explanation as to why stock prices are rallying, for one of the often-mentioned themes of this aspect is false hopes and wishes, leading to “irrational exuberance.” In the mundane realm, this no doubt pertains to the announcement last week that trade talks between the U.S. and China will resume. However, such optimism has been misguided before, so we shall see if this time will be any different under the Jupiter/Neptune contact. With both the Sun and Mars forming a square to Jupiter this week, and Jupiter symbolizing exaggeration, we could see very strong price moves either way. If “irrational exuberance” dominates, the direction will continue to be up. But if the Saturn stationary direct of September 18 starts to dominate, the mood could quickly shift to hysteria and panic, which is the other side of Jupiter and Neptune when reality strikes and hopes and wishes turn to disillusionment and disappointment.
Regarding the prospect of an October meeting between the U.S. and China, one period to keep a close eye on will be September 12-22, when the transit of Mars in Virgo will make a T-square to President Trump’s natal Sun/Uranus in Gemini, in opposite to his natal Moon in Sagittarius (he was born under lunar eclipse). Will he be able to control his impulse to strike out at the Chinese just before the next meetings get underway, thereby leading the Chinese to cancel the talks, as they have made it quite clear that they demand respect and civility to move forward with negotiations? It is a pattern that has soured these talks in prior instances. That is, just before the meetings take place, the U.S. finds it necessary to issue sharp rebukes against the Chinese, as if this is some sort of strategy designed to get a favorable outcome. In effect, it undermines the hopes and wishes of the world for a positive outcome. No agreement has resulted from these tactics, and it is doubtful such tactics will result in an agreement this time either. In fact, initiating this pattern again could very well result in a sense of finality – the termination – to any future talks before the 2020 election. But then again, maybe that is the goal of these tactics in the first place.
It is also interesting that next Friday and Saturday, September 13-14, will be a full moon. In other words, the full moon will activate the Jupiter/Neptune square. The next couple of weeks promise to be very dynamic, very entertaining perhaps, but they could also be very confusing, and perhaps coincide with record rainfall and floods. It is also a time when some people seem to be losing their mind. This is not a particularly favorable time to make decisions or start rumors, for there may be no evidence to back one’s claims. However, it can be favorable for those who want to relax and just enjoy life without stress. It’s a favorable time to take a vacation and enjoy easy going social activities and music. And in terms of equity markets, we could either see a powerful surge to new highs, or a severe decline to new monthly (or longer) lows. With Jupiter, everything is exaggerated. With Neptune, nothing makes sense. Thus, it may be best to just sit back and enjoy a lot of nonsense and exaggeration. Fact checkers may have a field day.”
I don’t have much to add this weekend. I’ve updated the SPX chart to show the possible route for the ‘five up’ following the triangle break.
Monday and Tuesday are days 3 and 4 so I suppose the five pattern might complete during that time or spill over into Wednesday. But if it wants to it can take all week.
For a number of reasons I am getting concerned here that the market might make a sudden very large downwards movement before the ‘shorts can get on board’.
2011: In the Welles Wilder book he talks about markets repeating or inverting every four lunar years (allowing a month or two either side).
Eight years ago was the 2011 correction period. Here’s the chart. Notice how the market rallied all the way up to test the ATH before then reversing downwards to new lows. Also notice the number of times it tested the 200MA from above and below.
2015: the 2015 correction period was even more volatile, but again the market rallied all the way up to test the ATH area before then collapsing sharply.
The 200MA is less significant in this chart, except to observe that the first correction tested the MA.
You can see where I’m coming from here – in both prior correction periods the market tested the 200MA. This time it hasn’t (yet).
In both periods the market rose to near the ATH presumably taking out all the shorts then leaving everyone high and dry as it reversed downwards sharply.
Now here we are in the next four lunar year correction period. Of course just because these things happened before doesn’t mean they will happen again. But I’ll be really disappointed if the market suddenly heads south with gusto and I’m not on board with my short positions.
Thanks for some cracking posts hatman.
I follow the Dow 2007 model ( 12yrs ago so a lunar 4yr count back ).
In that year there we rallied into October and then went down
through the 2008 credit crunch and into 2009.I have posted here that 2020 will be Credit Crunch II because
it’s 12yrs since Credit Crunch I.I am short the Dow and apart from minor tweaks will remain so
while we test the 27000’s … I can’t see 28000 happening.It’s the business end of 2019 and good luck to kpaders.
Never give up, never surrender.
SPX: I’ve updated the short term chart. I still think we are in a ‘five up’ from the B wave triangle break. Currently we appear to be in wave iv of 3 – sideways movement prior to a pop upwards.
Wave 3 has a couple of targets: the lowest target appears to be 2991, and the highest 2997, so presumably wave 3 will top somewhere in that area.
For the final wave 5 target I have 3,001 as the lowest and 3,015 as the highest. There must be an incredible number of stops and ‘waiting shorts’ at 3,000 so it wouldn’t surprise me to see the higher number hit. On the other hand the sheer weight of resistance at 3,000 might be enough.
Korea KOSPI: I am concerned about Kospi which has risen higher than I imagined it would. I have been tracking it downwards for many weeks and it has displayed a ‘perfect’ five wave decline sequence for wave C with an eventual target of 1620.
However the current rally (which should be part of wave iv) has now risen above 2,000. the ‘perfect wave iv’ would be in the 1947 area which of course can be achieved via a triangle.
For the overall count to be valid Kospi really has to stop here and reverse quite dramatically back to the lower edge of the possible triangle. It can do so, but if it rises any further then I think this would bring too much doubt into my long term analysis and will suggest that something else is going on.
Practice the act of waiting for the ‘h’ to form.
Dow early drop allowed me to close 26800 and now …
…
short at Dow 26880
…
I would rather have 27000 as a minimum and will
try for this during central bank fortnight.Never give up, never surrender.
Dow drop at the open looked like spill down for sunday S2H.
Then there was a rally to try for pt5 ‘h’ of S3H.
What kind of S3H we will find out later.
Never give up, never surrender.
Practice the act of waiting for the ‘h’ to form.
Dow early drop allowed me to close 26800 and now …
…
short at Dow 26880
…
I would rather have 27000 as a minimum and will
try for this during central bank fortnight.Closed at 26820
I will wait for Dow 27000
Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 26800
Just to cover a surprise drop.
Closed at 26775
Now I am taking some time out and will be back for FMOC
when I expect to short Dow 27000 … minimum.Never give up, never surrender.
DOW: over the weekend I spent time looking at my Dow analysis and in particular my theory that we are in wave ‘C’ upwards to the 34,000 area. I went back to double check all my calculations.
From the bears viewpoint I am concerned that from the December low the Dow has printed what I can only describe as the ‘perfect’ waves 1 and 2 of a C wave to 34,369.
34,000 is calculated as C=0.618 of the entire move from the 6,500 low up to 27,000 (wave A). Then we got wave B down to 21,700 last December. When I calculate the potential Fibs from 21,700 to 34,369 I get a sequence where the Dow has stopped exactly at the 38.2 and 23.6 points that would be perfect for waves 1 and 2. The wave 2 print is particularly important because the numbers are exact (see chart).
All of this gives me great concern (as a bear) that we have completed waves 1 and 2 and are now heading north in wave 3. The problem with this is that at the moment the market hasn’t reached 27,685 which would be the perfect point for wave 1 of 3. The ‘five up’ to 27,400 might be wave 1 but looks strange. Taking all options into account, the pattern that comes to mind is a ‘leading diagonal’ for wave 1 of 3 (see chart). We have all seen these rising triangle shapes that look bearish but resolve upwards in a massive burst, and this might be trying to form one of those.
Clearly I cannot be sure about these projections. However note too that the chart overall displays a potential ‘head and shoulders’ with a gently rising neckline at 27,500. An upwards break through that neckline gives a target of 33,300 not too far from the C wave target at 34,369.
All in all I am concerned that ‘everyone is wrong’ that there are ‘too many bears’ and that we have already started a very bullish move upwards to 34,369.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.