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Of course there’s also the bearish view – that we have completed the upside rally and have now entered the next leg down. In which case SPX should decline in ‘threes’. There’s a rally gap target in the 2915/20 area, and it might find a reason to fill that gap before then heading lower towards 2850.
I don’t know anything about STD, but the fact that the market didn’t rally at all on ‘day 1’ yesterday I suppose means that the ‘trend is down’ for the current four day sequence.
Dow futures have continued the S1H theme all the way up to 26300 but
we need cash to confirm with spill up.
Then for today ‘how deep is pt2’ is the question for potential S2L.Another day of drama !
Never give up, never surrender.
Yes hatman it looks like US markets are going up to
close the gap.We must be on our toes in case it’s a door close !
Never give up, never surrender.
Today the Ftse and Dax look like S2H with pt3 very
much in the normal window.Euroland and US have the same S2 today but one can
be L and the other H although it does not appear
to happen very often, imho.This action does raise the caution level when
trading Dow futures or plans for Dow cash.Never give up, never surrender.
An S2H Ftse vs an S2L Dow providers good trading.
As the Ftse prints an AM ‘h’ the Dow futures rise in sympathy
and then drop in cash to the Dow AM ‘l’.S1 to S2 transitions are also good in a big move market
because yesterday’s ‘h’ then moves to today’s ‘l’ as
the next STD pt.S1H to S2L or S1L to S2H … I can remember that could
be worth 100pts on the Ftse with the right market.There are a few little tricks in STD that were never
covered in tepid’s postings on kpad. He was such a
clever guy that I am sure he knew about them but
did right to keep somethings back.Never give up, never surrender.
This Dow cash market looks like a gap fill
with all this twitchy action.I would take care going in too hard.
Never give up, never surrender.
Strong drop followed now by an equally strong gap fill rally. And of course another gap formed which seems par for the course these days.
The drop and rally leaves all the patterns on the table.
Very distracted today setting up my new home computer. Previous one just stopped working due to a failed Windows Update. I could’ve reformatted etc but that PC was quite a few years old and I decided it was time to buy a new one.
Trouble is, it takes an age installing programs, backups etc etc. We’ve come to rely so much on computers and phones these days that our entire lives seem empty without them.
SPX has recovered nearly all of the prior drop, which one should interpret as a bullish sign I suppose. Whether it can now attempt the target of 2951 remains to be seen. But if it does so, to make the patterns ‘right’ it needs to do so from lower levels either via a triangle or wedge.
I am building shorts up here. Yes it can go higher, but at some point it will want to test the 200MA in the 2800 area. And of course the eventual target is down at 2671 SPX.
These markets gap up and down and move very swiftly. I don’t want to find myself in the unhappy situation of having called the markets right but not being on the bus.
3.00am here. Can’t sleep. Fiddling around with my new computer. So much to download and install.
DOW: if I really REALLY want to, I can interpret the plunge as a ‘five’. The action and proportions look right. If so, we’ve got wave 1 down followed by wave 2 gap fill today.
I cannot be certain (obviously) but it does look correct and the timing (just after Labor Day) is seasonally correct.
If so (and its a big IF) the Dow will now enter waves 3,4,5 down.
I have two shorts at Dow 26350 + 26100
I have also given up counting waves and STD because
we are all at sea in a 4th wave ( A & B done in C ).Once the boys get their positions we will have the
larger drop down to those levels discussed here.When the large drop starts it will not take many
days to reach those levels.I will not be greedy and will exit leaving the
last 400pts or so to be traded by the brave.Never give up, never surrender.
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