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I often go to bed at 10pm in the week and then
wake at 12 2am 4am 6am and check the markets.It’s hard to break out to a normal 8hrs solid
sleep which feels more natural.Never give up, never surrender.
Dow looking for S2L with the PM ‘h’ which may
print today or early thursday.Feels like we are nearing the xroads when the
market will make an important move.Never give up, never surrender.
Well there is an important if irritating move.
Dow futures at 26650
My Dow short stops are at 27800 so for now I continue
to wait. This is why I play the big game else I would
be stopped out on a regular basis. In this market.Never give up, never surrender.
Of the various options I outlined at the beginning of the week it looks like the ‘rising wedge C wave’ is the route the market wants to take.
For SPX this gives a target of around 2970 perhaps 2976 although it should try to revisit the 2930 area for overlap first.
Yes, very irritating. Although this was an ‘option’ at the start of the week I must admit I’m surprised given the extent and speed of the first drop.
Still the market is the market and we must accept what it tells us.
Cheers hatman
The spx futures are in your 2960 – 2970 zone and if
that is the end of ‘C’ then I will be happy.Never give up, never surrender.
The target for the Dow remains that elusive 26625/50 area. The futures have already visited that area today and RTH needs to peak a little lower than this.
If RTH trades above this area I will be concerned that something else is happening. But for the moment I’m content with the ‘rising wedge’ theory.
Remember that for the Dow 26640 or so is also the 0.618 retrace of the entire drop from the ATH so that and the 26625/50 points calculation all being clustered together makes it an area of significant importance.
Also if the Dow cash spills up to seal S2L from wednesday
then we can drop into S3L today. Add an abnormal S4H for
friday and we are on the down train.Never give up, never surrender.
Article in the South China Morning Post.
Trade talks are doomed because this is about more than trade.
Never give up, never surrender.
I will set stops at Dow 27100 at which point I will have
given back all my profits from August.If we do not fall very soon the 1987 Dow model is not
working and I will focus on the 2007 model which has
always been my best odds outcome.At Dow 27100 I would have to start again … but we
all know we have to be prepared to start again, as
in life so in trading.It’s sunny here and I may go for a nice walk with
stops and limits set ready for the market to
decide where we go from here.Never give up, never surrender.
Hot and humid. Air conditioning on half blast. August is usually incredibly hot and very humid (rather like Singapore). All apartments have air conditioning built-in these days. Older apartments have free standing units. Unfortunately aircon is very electricity intensive and in these apartment buildings the electricity bill for August is generally about $1,000! Thank goodness it’s only for one month….
SPX: I’ve updated my medium term roadmap chart (attached). I still believe we are in an expanded flat 2nd wave and the current ‘C’ wave down will be a long drawn-out descending diagonal. Yes, we’d all like to be big-time short and see 1987 all over again, but I don’t think that’s gonna happen. Of course the market can give way suddenly and drop to the target area, but again I don’t think that’s on the cards.
There are several positives on this chart: first (if my assumptions are correct) the current rally to around 2970 gives an opportunity to go short at high prices, and we might not see these prices again for several months.
Second, there will be another opportunity to go short around December 2nd if we get the counter trend rally (and the rally itself might provide 100 points of upside).
But the real opportunity comes in April when the wedge ends. After months of gentle falling activity the market will be like a coiled spring waiting to jump. We could get a sharp sudden rally of circa 300 points upwards in the space of two to three months. If it happens, that will be a very good opportunity to make substantial profits on the long side in a quite short period of time.
SPX: I think my chart for the possible rising wedge is wrong in terms of time. My assumption was that the wedge would finish by close Friday. However we’ve got a 3 and 4 Monday Tuesday and I wonder if the wedge will end then.
Interestingly Ray Merriman has Sept 10 as a possible key reversal date, which would also be Tuesday.
I’ll guess from this sharp opening that the rising wedge idea is no longer valid and something more bullish is going on. Quite what that is remains to be seen.
I closed my Dow shorts and then using the rest of my August profits …
Small short Dow at 26786 … stop 27400 … limit 24800 ( x 2 )
So at 27400 my stop kicks in and my August profits kick out.
At that point I would have to start again at a new Dow ath.
One good thing, it’s still sunny outside.
Never give up, never surrender.
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