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My Dow model is 2007 with it’s new aths in October.
If we drop in September then I am ready with my
two short positions at Dow 26786 in play.After a day like today it’s best to take some
time to weigh it all up and I will.Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 26786 … stop 27400 … limit 24800 ( x 2 )
Closed at 26776 … time to think of my next plan.
This way I retain 1/3rd of my August profits which
will fund my next trade’s stop.Never give up, never surrender.
We have much anticipated central bank activity in September.
ECB 12th
FMOC 18th
BOE BOJ 19thNever give up, never surrender.
SPX: it’s all a bit difficult, but for SPX I’ve moved the ‘end of triangle’ point forward (see chart). I’m not convinced, but looking at everything this does overall look like a big ABC from the low, now in a C wave ‘five’ upwards.
If correct, then the ‘C’ wave (if that is what it is) has targets of 3001 and 3015 (from different measurements). Currently we are in wave 3 of 5 with probably a pop upwards to the 2997/3000 area to complete wave 3.
Basically this looks like a ‘retest’ of 3,000.
There is a serious risk here that the market is taking out the shorts before declining in a more significant way – it has gone upwards fast and can reverse downwards just as fast if not faster.
Thanks hatman
My Dow short is a guard against a surprise drop rather than
any great expectations of profits. I think the march to new
aths has begun a la Dow 2007. If instead we do drop then
it’s ‘yo ho me lads yo ho’ !Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 26750 … stop 28000 … limit 18000
Closed at 26739
I am going to wait for FMOC and short Dow 27000
Never give up, never surrender.
I closed my SPX shorts at 2971 for a modest loss. Disappointing, but I am still in profit over the past couple of months (mainly from the currencies). It looks likely that SPX wants the 3,000 area and there is no point sitting through more pain – better to take the loss and enter again higher up.
Short term this appears to be an ABC now in wave C up. There was considerable resistance in the 2940 area which created the top flat line of the likely triangle (it touched that line four or more times). After this ‘five’ to the 3,000 area there is a high probability that the market will at least return to overlap that wave ‘A’ at 2940. So my strategy here is to re-enter short in the 3,000 area with a slightly larger position in order to recoup losses and generate an additional profit.
There is a very interesting situation here. I’ve double checked my numbers and I still believe we are in an expanded flat second wave that measures down to 2671 SPX.
If the market achieves a new ATH above 3028 I am wrong and something else entirely is happening.
However, if I am right, then this rally is just a wave ‘B’ and there are lower lows to come.
The thing is, at SPX 3,000 the upside stop where I am wrong is at 3028, just 28 points. But the downside target is 2671, 329 points. That’s a risk/reward ratio of greater than 10:1.
To put it monetary terms, $1,000 of risk at 3,000 has the potential for $10,000 of profit. And $5,000 of risk has the potential for $50,000 of profit. Etc.
It isn’t often we get these chances in life…
Cimac, I am not encouraging you to participate. I’m just thinking aloud. No advice intended etc etc.
Cimac, I am not encouraging you to participate. I’m just thinking aloud. No advice intended etc etc.
Too late mate … I’ve already gone in ard !
Never give up, never surrender.
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