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GBPUSD: here’s an update of my GBPUSD chart. Nothing much has happened in the past month – GBP has fiddled around in the 1.21/3 area forming what is likely a 4th wave of the current decline. This 4th wave can continue sideways for a while if it wants to, or it can just head sharply downwards to the 5th wave target in the 119.3/119.6 area.
I still believe GBPUSD is in a falling wedge for ‘C’ which will complete an ABC decline down to about 1.14.
If so, the Pound should find a reason to rally quite sharply up to the 1.25 area before then declining again. What on earth could happen to cause such a rally I don’t know – perhaps a general election with a decisive win for Boris. Or perhaps something will happen to take the Dollar downwards. No doubt we’ll find out in due course.
All the big gun central banks will announce their
latest rates this mouth.Never give up, never surrender.
Cable has decided to take the direct route falling sharply to a new low just below 1.20.
My target is the 119.3/119.6 area. Perhaps in the next couple of days we’ll find out if my chart is right or wrong!
Hint: it will certainly be wrong if Cable prints below 1.19!
DXY: I’m watching the Dollar Trade Weighted Index for clues to the Dollar’s future direction against the Pound and Euro.
The really bullish view is that Dollar is in wave ‘C’ upwards which will comprise five bullish waves. On this chart I’m showing wave 1 (of 5 of C) as complete at 99.2.
The eventual target is 117 (might take quite a few years).
Interestingly although 99.2 is calculated as a rising diagonal 5th wave, it is also exactly at the 38.2 Fib when measured to 117. That’s partly why I have this as wave 1.
Today DXY has traded higher and briefly touched 92.3. So the target has been met. Now something needs to happen to start bringing the dollar downwards in wave 2.
Clearly if DXY continues to rise and trades above the best 92.2 target then something else entirely is going on.
Today the Dow is S1 … have to wait for the H or L
Dow futures are circa 26200 and that may be a good
line in the sand for the bull or bear lean.Good luck trading today.
Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 26200
Closed at 26000
It’s a good profit … not sure if it’s right to close here
but that was my intra day limit so was all done by the
time I got back from an extended lunch.Never give up, never surrender.
Another good profit for you cimac. Well done.
This drop of course doesn’t fit into my ‘five up’ scenario (or indeed with any other options). It’s just possible this is one of those occasions when ‘market forces’ simply override normal patterns and do their own thing. Elliot Wave people describe this as ‘failed 5th etc’ trying to justify the system. Fact is, the ‘system’ only works about 80% of the time and at other times it’s a lottery. This looks like one of those times.
Trump put out a trade tweet about 15 mins before the market opened. One of these days he’s going to be taken to task by the SEC for market manipulation.
In other news, the Pound dropped into my target area of 119.3/6 and then put on a spectacular rally, now trading in the 1.21 area. I’m pleased my chart appears to have been correct.
Also the Dollar, having reached the 99.2 target area, was suddenly crushed by the ‘recessionary’ USM manufacturing index. So we got the top and the sudden reversal I was looking for.
Sometimes it’s just good to get the charts right. Money comes later…
Some lunches work in ones favour and some do not.
My feeling is the UK is not leaving the EU in 2019
or if it does then there will be a deal of sorts.I doubt we have a general election in October.
The pound may benefit and the seasonal eur:gbp ‘h’
which comes in september may have come early.Never give up, never surrender.
Regarding EW is it not true that 4th waves can be
the most unpredictable and hardest to trade.If we are in a 4th wave down ( a&b done now in c )
before the 5th to new aths. That may explain the
difficult counts and patterns.Never give up, never surrender.
Regarding EW is it not true that 4th waves can be the most unpredictable and hardest to trade. If we are in a 4th wave down ( a&b done now in c ) before the 5th to new aths. That may explain the difficult counts and patterns.
Yep, quite right.
Small short Dow at 26100 … stop 27500 … limit 24800 ( x 2 )
The stop and limit are just for completeness.
Never give up, never surrender.
Looks like the Dow is trying S1H
But even Delta can be bent to the will of humans,
for a time, then snaps back in control.Need more time to be sure.
Never give up, never surrender.
It would have been perfection complete if the Dow had been able to rise to that 26625/50 area particularly as it would have been the 0.618 retrace of the entire decline.
And SPX to 2951 would have been equally logical.
Both can still achieve those targets although the probability has diminished considerably following yesterdays sharp decline. It’s very likely something else is developing, but for the record here are a couple of SPX charts showing upside to 2951 alternatives.
The first chart (attached) suggests that the plunge was just the start of a 4th wave triangle followed by a 5th upwards….
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