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Trump is speaking at the Economic Club of New York at (1700 GMT)
with topics like China and EU trade expected.This could be like an FMOC 3 way whipsaw and in preparation
for this I have been scaling back Dow short entries in
the overnight futures market.Never give up, never surrender.
Nearly day traded out my profits for Dow shorts and
expect this to be complete before US pre market.
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I will play the Trump talk circa 17:00 gmt using
these short entry orders.
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Small short Dow at 27760
Small short Dax at 13290
…Never give up, never surrender.
A slight change to entry orders
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Small short Dow at 27760
Small short Dax at 13290
Small short Spx at 3100
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I doubt any moves will stick unless the big money
boyz want it that way for Options Expiry.Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Spx at 3100 … stop tba … limit tba ( x 2 )
The spx got there first in my initial time window,
so I opened two spx and skipped Dax & Dow.Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Spx at 3100 … stop 3250 … limit 2000 ( x 2 )
Trade in full.
Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Spx at 3100 … stop 3250 … limit 2000 ( x 2 )
Trade in full.
Closed at 3099 … have to go out on an errand.
Never give up, never surrender.
SPX: my original chart suggesting a target area of 3090/3105 was produced a couple of weeks ago (chart not updated). In this scenario spx would complete an abc pattern where c=a. It does look valid, and of course spx is now trading exactly in that area.
Unfortunately the pattern isn’t replicated in the Dow and that of course is a cause for concern. For the Dow to complete the same idea it would need to be in the 28,100 area.
DOW: using the same pattern for the Dow gives a couple of options neither of which look finished.
Whereas it can be argued that SPX has completed the ‘five up’ breakout from the triangle, the Dow cannot be interpreted as a ‘three’ or a ‘five’ (at least not by me).
In both instances a more comfortable target area is around 28,100/28,150.
It’s possible that the Dow has reached a point where it needs to pause and form some sort of 4th wave.
Of course it’s also possible that SPX has ‘finished’ in that 2990/3105 target area and perhaps it will underperform from this point.
Cheers hatman
I was bored earlier and so set about a hedged trade. Now completed.
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Small long Dow at 27620 … stop tba … limit 28000 ( x 2 )
Small short Dow at 27640 … stop tba … limit 17500 ( x 2 )
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I have a few tasks to do into the weekend and so my plan
is to hold these into options expiry, at least, to see
where the big money wants expiry to print.
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It’s just become a game (trading) to me.Never give up, never surrender.
DOW: as you know I believe we are in a bull market until 2024 with a target in the 35,000 area, probably via a leading diagonal or C wave (for the first abc).
However I’ve seen a couple times recently a more bearish view that this rally from the 21,700 low is actually a very bearish rising wedge (see chart). I’m not convinced, but it does ‘work’ and if so we are at or very nearly at the end of it.
I think the Dow may tag 27500 before a rally to ath.
This two way action could form part of options expiry ( or not ).
Never give up, never surrender.
Wow, have I been a busy boy!
Closed the hedge at net b/e.
Now I have a new improved hedge.
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Small long Dow at 27600 … stop tba … limit 28000 ( x 2 )
Small short Dow at 27650 … stop tba … limit 17500 ( x 2 )
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Same plan, wait for options expiry to print.Never give up, never surrender.
Small long Dow at 27600 … stop tba … limit 28000 ( x 2 )
Small short Dow at 27650 … stop tba … limit 17500 ( x 2 )Closed both and took the 50pts
Never give up, never surrender.
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