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Dow STD has been taken for a ride by dip buyers
who may have an interest in friday’s OE.Tell tale signs reveal
Monday S2L
Tuesday S3L
Wednesday S4H
as the lean.Never give up, never surrender.
Hatman there are signs the Dow wants to out perform spx
as you stated it could if it wanted to complete a 5th.Never give up, never surrender.
Yes I’ve just been looking at that myself. My ‘perfect’ target area for spx is 3090/3105.
For the Dow I’ve looked again and there’s a range of 27995/28100/28150.
RUT and particularly DJT are weak.
RSI reading is very high – in overbought/sell territory.
Greed Index is very high.
According to Nomura CTAs are 98.5% long, the highest since 2006 (bearish sign as there are no buyers left).
So there are solid signs that a swing top is nearby.
Dow *can* have a target at 27995 for ‘wave 3’ then a 4th and a final 5th to 28100/28150 later.
As we know, markets can remain in overbought territory longer than most people can remain solvent. This situation might still need another couple weeks.
Small short Dow at 27750 … stop 33000 … limit 17500
Closed at b/e
No position now.
I will look for a short Dow 27800 – 28000
Still interested at what price option expiry prints.
Never give up, never surrender.
WALT DISNEY: Jesse Livermore said “nothing is too low to sell, and nothing is too high to buy”. Charts like this explain why the overall market is somewhat bafflingly strong.
I read a report that said in the States only 26% of mutual funds have managed to outperform the S&P in recent times. That means 71% of managers have been stumped by the unpredictable nature, times of extreme surprising moves, and uncertain patterns.
Dow STD has been taken for a ride by dip buyers
who may have an interest in friday’s OE.Tell tale signs reveal
Monday S2L
Tuesday S3L
Wednesday S4H
as the lean.Looks like we were correct.
Assuming no extra pt / flip
S1L today
S2H friday
Some pts could be distorted (hard to read)
due to dip buyers and options expiry.Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 27790
Futures pop over German data.
Expect to close at pt1 (Dow cash) later.
Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 27790
Futures pop over German data.
Expect to close at pt1 (Dow cash) later.
Small long Dow at 27750
Still holding the short
I may just take the filling(profit) from this sandwich, later.
Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 27790
Futures pop over German data.
Expect to close at pt1 (Dow cash) later.
Small long Dow at 27750
Still holding the short
I may just take the filling(profit) from this sandwich, later.
All closed and flat now.
Never give up, never surrender.
I think it’s very risky to trade atm as we wait
for options expiry.Dow sub 27700 but will the big money want it there.
I have no idea and will stand back and count profits.
Never give up, never surrender.
SPX: often in confusing markets it makes sense to just stand aside and wait for something to develop OR just keep looking and reviewing until *something* makes sense.
In the case of spx this ‘eureka’ moment (of sorts) caught my eye this morning. It’s a different pattern than any I’ve contemplated so far. And it makes sense (at least until proved wrong).
On the chart (attached) I noticed that the second corrective drop was equal to the first drop. This usually suggests an expanded flat correction. So I’m now showing wave ‘A’ followed by an expanded flat down to wave ‘B’ (see chart). And if this is correct we are now rising in the first part of a rising wedge for ‘C’.
A rising wedge has to be made up of overlapping ‘threes’. Interestingly we seem to be approaching the top of the first ‘three’ which had wave (a) upwards followed by a triangle (b) (there’s that triangle again) and now trying to complete (c) as a five wave advance.
(c) will be equal to (a) in the 3118 area, which matches the shape of the five wave pattern.
However in the meantime we need a 4th wave. If we take a 38.2 fib down from the 3118 target we get 3030 which is exactly the line of support and bigger ‘triangle’ breakout. In other words wave 4 retests the upwards break through resistance/support which is what one would expect in basic technical analysis.
If all this is correct we appear to be very close to the top of wave 3 which is likely in the 3098 area.
Caution: these numbers have been calculated from the daily chart and need to be flexible by a few points either side.
Unfortunately although I think this is an excellent solution for SPX, the numbers are not replicated by the Dow. As I’ve mentioned before, the Dow target area appears to be nearer to 27,900 (and perhaps slightly higher).
So either the Dow has got to outperform spx, or my numbers are incorrect (or something else is happening).
For the Dow the target area for W3 appears to be 27930/70. That would make it the same pattern as spx.
For SPX a closer look suggests the target is slightly higher than I previously calculated at around 3010/3.
If these numbers are correct (give or take) then we are close to a final pop upwards to complete W3 (of C).
DOW: applying the same sequence to the Dow gives a C=A target of 28,150.
But before getting there we need a peak for W3 then a W4.
W3 target seems to be in a range of 27,929 to 28,091. I wish I could be more specific but there are several variables. I suspect the lower end of this range.
Interesting that after W3 the target for W4 becomes about 27,424 which (just like the S&P) appears to a retest of support resistance.
I’m quite pleased with these charts because for the past few months it has been difficult to see patterns and targets where Dow and Spx both match (as far is reasonably possible). This time they both match and the target areas for waves 3, 4 and 5 have about the same proportions.
I’m also encouraged by the fact that the ‘patterns’ in both cases suggest a peak then an almost exact retest of the support/resistance line.
It’s also been a while since I’ve seen something where a medium to long term plan can be put into action with a reasonably high probability of success.
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