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STD is S3 …. but trying to map the pts
for the Dow Ftse Dax is really hard.This could indicate these markets were
all trying to print a ‘h’ of sorts.We need more time to resolve this.
I will mark the Dow as S3H
Never give up, never surrender.
DOW: ignoring the wave counts, timings etc, on a very simple technical analysis basis there is a large triangle with an upper trendline that has been touched seven times. The market broke upwards through that trendline to close at a new ATH.
Simple technical analysis suggests that this sort of upwards break usually leads to much higher prices (often equal to the base of the triangle). That can certainly happen.
However, for short positions, usually (but not always) a market will return to test the important trendline from above. It hasn’t done that yet. The trendline is currently in the 27,200 area.
DOW: adding in some calculations, I’ve got my ‘leading diagonal’ upper trendline in the 27525/50 area. But looking at the actual pattern developing, there’s a possible c=a “three’ at 27,584 and a third wave (of five) potential at 27,606.
So the range of possibilities is 27,525 – 27,606, at least for the moment. These numbers are quite close together and might represent at least a reversal point for a retest of the trendline at 27,200 or so.
DOW: in the shorter term the Dow is exhibiting an upwards five that looks like it *might* be complete. However it doesn’t fit with any of the targets calculated from the daily chart (27,525 – 27,606). It’s possible that the pattern is just deceiving and has only completed wave iii, with iv under development and v yet to come.
This would fit nicely (I think) with STD allowing for a final pop upwards today (day 4) or Wednesday (day 1). I’ve noticed that ‘day 1’ sometimes has a jump ‘in the wrong direction’ before then settling into an opposite trend, so the final pop could come Wednesday (if it comes at all).
Looking again at monday’s Dow action a good case
can be made for spill up then S3L.
That would lead nicely into today S4H to end
this 4 day cycle with some sort of ‘h’.STD is hardest to count at highs and lows when
the market strains to reach a certain price.Also very hard to count when the market is
as flat as a witch’s tit !Never give up, never surrender.
Hmmm… I’ve met quite a few witches and the bra size has never been a problem…
Ha Ha
Thanks for sharing your personal observations.
Never give up, never surrender.
I had a Dow ath target of 27650 for mid October and
as that failed I would except mid November.Really need the majority to get more bullish so
the market can spring a surprise drop.Better if that was a pean trap off a high tick.
Never give up, never surrender.
JP Morgan’s Fear/Greed index is showing extreme greed. Clearly this is not a market to go long at the moment. Unfortunately, as we know, the market can remain in extreme greed territory longer than most people can remain solvent…
Still, at least it sounds a warning of sorts.
Looking again at monday’s Dow action a good case
can be made for spill up then S3L.
That would lead nicely into today S4H to end
this 4 day cycle with some sort of ‘h’.Possible.
Never give up, never surrender.
DJT: The transports index broke above the point where c=a and is showing strength.
On this chart I’m showing two different options – one a sideways triangle B wave, and the other an expanded flat where the middle wave pops higher.
For the triangle followed by a c=0.618 the target area is around 11,286. And for the expanded flat thing the 1.382 target is 11,275.
So there’s a confluence of targets very close together – 11,275/11,286.
The daily candle shows ‘doubt and indecision’ yesterday. I suspect that might just be a pause point followed by some sort of small 4th wave then a 5th pop into the target area.
The other option is that this is an extreme start to a five wave move much higher, but that would need to be proved by a decisive advance above the 11,275/11,286 target area.
MSFT: the advance higher in Microsoft hasn’t yet reached the target of 148 or so. Still about 2% to go. It might just be pausing in a small 4th wave. Alternatively I can see how this might develop into a final rising wedge (in which case it could edge lower before rising again).
As we know, MSFT is a large component of the Dow.
Dow in november pre election years tends to pause
before a year end rally to new highs.Never give up, never surrender.
Dow: one of my targets was/is 27550, which the Dow hit exactly. Higher targets are up to 27,606. However a problem here is that spx hasn’t hit my target area of 3090/3105. This might indicate that the Dow has further upside.
Looking at the short term chart, it’s possible to count in ‘fives’ but I can also see how this latest move upwards can be a ‘three’ with c=0.618 (see chart). If it is a three then the Dow might now try higher as a rising wedge, but first *might* want to edge lower to overlap the action at 27,300.
Due to the uncertainty I don’t have any positions, and I’m still happy to wait for a high probability opportunity.
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