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DJI: I wonder if it is coincidence or destiny that the important ABC 27350 target is almost exactly at the three tops trendline where we are trading now. The market closed at 27332 and there would be space for a 4th wave followed by a 5th to 27350 in the next two or three days.
All very interesting (and dangerous). Possibility of a ‘diamond top’.
The targets for SPX are higher, but that doesn’t mean that the Dow can’t top out first and start to underperform in the topping process. Boeing is a large component of the DJI, and some bad news there would certainly bring the DJI down. Frankly if the authorities ever let that rubbish 737MAX fly again I think they’ll be in for some severe criticism (and possibly criminal action). Some really negative news on the MAX could decimate Boeing’s share price but leave the SPX and COMP relatively unscathed.
Small short Dow at 27000 … stop 30000 … limit 18000 ( x 2 )
This is still in play and I will not trade again until it’s
proved to be good or bad.I would like to adjust stops and will if / when possible
to lock in profits.I assume that I will be watching for some time.
Never give up, never surrender.
SPX: I think the DOW chart with the long term 27350 target ABC area is interesting and compelling. However the pattern isn’t confirmed by the S&P.
You can see on the attached chart that SPX doesn’t reach its ABC target until 3240 – and that’s quite a bit higher than today. This might mean that the Dow chart target is wrong (and we’ll soon find out). OR, it might mean there is a different pattern taking place in SPX and that SPX might look for a higher target (perhaps next year) even though the Dow has already topped.
SPX: in the shorter term there’s the possibility that SPX is trying to complete an irregular flat in the 3010/3020 area. In other words this latest sharp rise is part of a sideways flat B wave and needs wave C to complete the pattern.
If this is so (and frankly it’s a long shot) then c=1.618 in the 3010/3020 area (exactly where we are now). Interesting because this coincides with the Dow reaching the 27350 area, and also touches the same rising upper trendline.
To be honest I’m not convinced, but on the other hand these sideways irregular and expanded flat formations are confusing and misleading at best.
We’ll soon find out: if the S&P breaks upwards through 3010/3020 decisively then clearly this pattern is completely invalidated (and might also drive the Dow upwards to invalidate its own pattern).
So for this idea to be valid SPX needs to show a clear topping sequence right where we are now.
GBPEUR: the Pound has sunk to a new short term low against the Euro. Although the extreme long term chart suggests targets in the 0.92/0.96 area, I suspect that the recent sideways action will continue perhaps for another year.
All the news (good and bad) about Brexit, Boris, trade wars etc etc is already known and is likely ‘in the price’. I think we may have to wait for the next financial crisis for the Pound to drop to the lower targets.
The chart shows a clean ABC decline followed by a long sideways consolidation which will likely become a B wave triangle of sorts.
In ‘normal’ years the GBPEUR tends to have a low
in the autumn and a high in the spring.I would want to see where we are in the autumn
which this year has the current Brexit date.Never give up, never surrender.
SPX: for the S&P500 I mentioned the possibility of the index topping out in the 3010/3020 area. It entered that area and has now fallen back to test 3000 from above.
There’s a possible rising wedge on the chart. It might be complete (in which case the market has already peaked) or it might need one last final ‘three wave’ advance into the 3030 area. Difficult to tell.
The lower trendline of the ‘wedge’ is in the 2990/2995 area, so quite close. If SPX reaches that line and starts to bounce upwards perhaps that will suggest a final push higher is developing. However if the trendline gets broken decisively then that suggests the ‘top is in’.
SPX: if the S&P rising wedge hasn’t yet completed and there’s another three wave leg upwards to go, then the target is 3024 based on a five wave pattern with wedge shown on the attached chart.
Actually that’s still within the bounds of the 3010/3020 target area, allowing a few points for experimental error.
I am still looking for a Dow drop before the end of July
but it’s rather frustrating as each day goes by.However we must believe in ourselves and Never Give Up,
Never Surrender.Never give up, never surrender.
Dow futures had been trading near to 27400 but cash
is opening near to 27300Never mix the two, trade one or the other.
Cash very often goes where futures have been but
we have seen some ‘interesting’ times when what
was expected did not materialise.Never give up, never surrender.
We are still in the full moon window which some use
to watch out for potential highs and lows.Never give up, never surrender.
SPX: the sharp market drop to around 2984 suggests that the rising diagonal has been completed and broken, in which case there’s a high probability that the ‘top is in’.
The lower trendline of the diagonal was in the 2990/5 area. Actually, down at 2984 the market is still within a rising channel, and still has a chance to rise to a new high. But that chance has been significantly diminished.
A further drop below the close would add credence to a likely important top. The futures are trading at 2975 at the time of writing.
There’s a C=A pattern (not very clear) that has a target of 2970. Clearly if the market goes that low then all the rising topping patterns are ‘complete’ and the risk of a ‘top being in’ rises considerably. There’s also a C=0.618 target at 2980. Although of lesser strength, a drop even to 2980 would also suggest a market peak has been completed.
So a lot depends on the price action of the next day or two. At some point the market might rally upwards to test 3000 from below, and such a rally will be worth watching.
On the downside there are gaps at 2980 (a target) and lower at 2945.
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