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The Dow has 27000 nearby and it’s not clear if it
will fail or climb above.We have hatman’s target boxes for either outcome.
Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 27000 … stop 30000 … limit 18000 ( x 2 )
Again I like the -3k vs +9k as an initial trade plan.
I will not run this all the way up or down but just look for
smaller profits as the 27k red zone is tested this time.Never give up, never surrender.
July has seen US stocks head off on their own
with Dax Ftse etc falling away.I doubt the US rate cuts will do much for the
real US economy but it may suck in more money
to propel US stocks into an sustainable rise.Never give up, never surrender.
DOW: whilst the target box in the 27500/27650 area remains valid, I am a little concerned about the ‘shape’ of the route upwards. It is meant to be a five or a three but at the moment it is neither of those. This might mean that something else is happening, but as I’ve mentioned several times recently, the preferred choice is the formation of a rising wedge as shown on the attached chart. Clearly this is just a guess and anything can happen in these overblown markets. If the wedge is to be valid the Dow needs to drop down to the lower line from around these levels, otherwise something else is going on.
DOW: in this minute-by-minute chart for the past ten days you can see that the price action isn’t ‘impulsive’ but appears to be overlapping possibly as the culmination of a rising wedge as shown on the daily chart. It can go higher to around 27150, or it can stop suddenly where it is now.
I don’t have a view or a position but would rather wait to see what develops.
DXY: the dollar is consolidating above the (invalidated) trendline, and is also perched back above the 200 MA which is still rising. Nothing here to give any clue as to future direction, and nothing to suggest what might happen to interest rates.
It can go higher to around 27150, or it can stop suddenly where it is now.
Well, here we are at 27150…
DOW: here’s a six month chart where I’m trying to isolate the pattern of the latest rise. Based on my concept of this being a large rising wedge, this rise should be a ‘three’. It might be, but the pattern doesn’t look right (yet). It’s passed the point where c=0.618. Of course it might just reverse from here, but if not there are targets higher at 27320 and 27560. And, just to confuse matters, there’s a shorter term wedge target at 27150.
So it’s all a bit scrappy. Clearly it’s trying to head to my target peak box area 27500/27650, but the route is becoming occluded.
I don’t have a position and I’m content to sit back and see what develops.
Dow vs Dax diverge even more now !
Not sustainable for much longer ?
Never give up, never surrender.
SPX: I originally had targets of 3003 and 3040 for an SPX top. However the pattern has changed and it looks like going higher. I’m still thinking we will get some form of rising diagonal in these markets, and it might take longer (and higher) than many think.
Looking at the attached chart I’m suggesting an ABC advance in the current rally, with the most recent action being overlapping waves in ‘C’. If so the target is around 3060. The pattern is rather scrappy, but the green option seems the most likely.
Time will tell.
*If* 3060 is reached (and the pattern is correct) then SPX *MUST* fall back to overlap 2955 if the rising diagonal pattern is to be valid. So I’m looking for that 3060 target towards the end of July for a rather quick 105 points correction downwards.
DOW: I’ve updated my DOW chart, trying to look at the different options. The recent price action now looks like an impulsive ‘five’. It can be a ‘c’ wave of the current advance, or the entire recent advance can be a ‘five’. Difficult to tell – but it looks like a five to my eyes.
There are two nearby targets – 27500 or so as part of an expanded flat, or 27650/27730 which completes either a three or a five for the current move.
The RSI is high, which might negate the idea of a ‘three’.
I suspect the 27500 will be exceeded and thus invalidated. In which case the next target of 27650/27730 comes into play.
There are also higher targets around 28,200 and 29,000 but I find it difficult to see how the market can reach those areas with the current pattern, but those might be valid targets for next year after a correction sets up a different pattern.
On balance it looks like the 27650/27730 area is the most likely target towards the end of July.
I guess the simple route is a rise into FMOC but
that would be a smooth ride for traders and who
would bet on that !Never give up, never surrender.
URGENT
DJI: the 27500/27650/27730 target areas for the Dow have me a little confused because they don’t have much of a Fib relationship to the preceding action. So I’ve looked again at the long term picture, and I’m rather shocked to discover that the long term potential ABC has a C=A target at exactly 27350. For some reason I had 30,000 in mind – where I got that from I’m not sure.
This 27350 target is clearly extremely important. It might also explain why the most recent rise looks more and more like a ‘five’.
This long term ABC is likely part of an even longer term rising wedge to finish off the bull market that started way back in 1906 or 1932.
Whatever, the C=A relationship at 27350 is clearly very important.
I’ll be looking again at the shorter term charts to see if the current pattern can work out nearer to that number.
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