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That’s me done for today … I will hold my trades into EOM
but would move stops or take profits if possible.Record high temps for England in July today.
Cooler here in the South West at 26’c
Never give up, never surrender.
Closed all Dow shorts at 27300 ( 27300 x 2 ) ( 27350 x 4 )
That will do for me … b/e x 2 and +50pts x 4
Unless we revisit Dow 27350 today, I am finished.
Never give up, never surrender.
DOW: whereas the S&P zoomed up to a new marginal all time high, the Dow was held back by appalling results from Boeing. So the ‘shape’ of the two charts are different.
For the Dow there’s a possible first ABC decline followed by what might be a B wave rally. Then the market fell sharply in what could be a falling wedge C wave that interestingly is just about equal to wave A. Difficult to tell, and it can continue to resolve downwards if it wants to. But for the moment as far as I can see there’s a completed ABC and there should/might be another rally upwards.
Bradley: the date for the rally high is/was July 24, after which there’s lots of tooing and froing during August before the dealers return from hols in early September and let the market fall.
Of course the Bradley stuff is sometimes very accurate but often a load of nonsense. However it’s been reasonably accurate this year. If we suppose the Bradley date is correct, then the Dow and S&P have topped. There will be opportunities to go short, but it’s likely the markets will somehow be levitated at high levels while the dealers clean out their long positions to ‘weaker hands’.
SPX: let’s suppose the Bradley date is correct. I can see how the SPX chart can be counted as a five wave move to the marginal new high. It didn’t reach the ‘perfect’ targets of 3024 or 3030 (and might still try to do so), but for the moment the chart suggests the ‘top is in’. The divergence in the daily chart is also compelling evidence.
Cheers hatman it’s a pleasure to read your posts.
I continue to find a way to position my trades for
the eventual large falls,Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 27200 … stop n/a … limit n/a ( x 4 )
Just to cover any surprise drop over the weekend and into EOM.
I doubt we are going anywhere before FMOC but I want to have
a trade in play and I am happy to pay the freight.Have a great weekend kpaders.
Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 27200 … stop n/a … limit n/a ( x 4 )
Closed at 27150 … +50pts x 4
Take the money.
Never give up, never surrender.
SPX: all rather confusing as the market gets pumped daily to new highs. Looking at the daily chart I see the possibility that this is trying to complete a five wave move via an ascending wedge. Working backwards, if the 4th wave is placed at 0.618 then the target becomes 3032.
However in strong markets (and when moving in threes) the final wave upwards is often 0.618 of waves 1 thru 3, in which case the target is 3060.
I can see how both of these can be reached by the ascending triangle route.
I don’t have any other logical targets until way higher at 3095.
So I think the strategy is clear (as far as anything can be clear in financial markets) – a possible peak target at 3032 and if it clears that decisively it would appear to want the next target at 3060.
There’s divergence in the oscillators suggesting a top is close by, but these things are sometimes misleading.
SPX: looking at the minute-by-minute chart I see two possibilities, both of which suggest the market should try to pull back to at least overlap 3015/20 and might try to fall further to fill the gap at 3005. If so, then this is all part of the possible rising wedge formation as shown on the daily chart with targets at 3032 and 3060. So any decline *should* be followed by another attempt at those targets.
SPX: on the daily longer term chart if we place the two current targets of 3032 and 3060 and work backwards we find that this entire recent rally just about commenced from points at 61.8 (see chart). It’s not perfect but perhaps close enough to be valid. As the current rise appears to be a five, that would make it wave 5 upwards from the 2347 low.
I’m not completely convinced and this is just an idea to try to make some sense of the market pattern. A big problem with it is that at 3032 and/or 3060 the peak won’t have any Fib relationship to any of the other big waves, which makes me suspicious.
Anyway, at least this is an idea that can be monitored.
DJI: the Dow *might* have a valid target in the 27740 area. Again, like SPX, if this is a five wave thing and we place a 0.618 at the correct point it’s possible to see a pattern involving a last strong thrust higher. Whether it will happen is anyone’s guess. However the risk is there. Interestingly Dow 27740 roughly equates to the higher SPX target of 3060. The Dow has been held down by Boeing and might just be forming a sideways 4th wave thing prior to a sharp pop higher.
I don’t think I want to be short these markets at the moment given the risk of an upside jump. If something else happens to change the patterns then hopefully there will be a clearly defined signal.
Thanks hatman
I use spx 3100 and Dow 28000 as a rough guide to
the near term potential risk for my short trades.Have a great weekend.
Never give up, never surrender.
Small short sp500 at 3021 … stop n/a … limit n/a ( x 4 )
Closed all 4 at 3018
I will trade the FMOC / EOM action on wednesday.
I would like to short sp500 at 3030 and Dow at 27500
which may be possible in the post FMOC 3 way moves.Never give up, never surrender.
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