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Welcome to the best month of the year !
Never give up, never surrender.
The 1st trading day of July is seen as the most bullish
opening trading day of any month for US stocks going
back some 20 years.Let’s see what happens this year.
Never give up, never surrender.
Trading should be fun and so I opened four trades on friday.
Long Dow at 26550 x2
Short Dow 26600 x2I will swing trade these out using hatman’s excellent levels
except I will work well within those levels as limits.Never give up, never surrender.
Careful. Progress on trade agreements might also mean that the Fed will have less reason to cut interest rates. The futures price action today looks bullish (and might be) but can also just be part of the sideways action expected for wave iv (which can be an expanded flat, triangle or just a simple ABC).
Quite so on all counts.
Let the bulls have their 1st trading day of July fun.
It’s just rock & roll to seasoned kpaders !
Never give up, never surrender.
DOW: looking at the Dow I see the possibility of this being a flat 4th wave. The minute-by-minute chart shows possibly an A,B with wave C to come. C can be equal to A or 1.618*A. Most likely to be equal to A. The two different routes shown on this chart.
Dollar: everyone expected the dollar to be weak and ‘risk off’ assets to perform well after the weekend shenanigans at G20 and Korea. Surprisingly the opposite happened with the DXY showing a strong surge in the dollar and the Korean market weak. The Euro was also weak.
Looking at the DXY chart, the dollar has bounced strongly to retest the broken trendline. Of course it might falter here, but every man and his dog was waiting for that retest so it might be ‘too obvious’. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the dollar a little stronger to burn the shorts, or perhaps trade sideways to create uncertainty and confusion.
Good Morning Cimac , Hatman et al
NEW MOON in CANCER / Summer Solstice
Good Luck to us all
Small droplets of rain turn into Rivers, Streams and Mighty Oceans
KOSPI: to my eye Korea’s KOSPI looks like an extremely dangerous market. It has completed an ABC decline from 2600 to 2000, and is now possibly tracing out a B wave sideways consolidation.
… and in the long term it looks like the lower trendline is a magnet… where C=A…
Dow hit 26800 again last night and looks a bit
vulnerable for a quick drop to circa 26500The 4th July holiday may delay the drop but
there is a good chance on friday / monday
as we would expect a bookends s1l – s4lNever give up, never surrender.
1987: the Bradley chart for this year reminds me of 1987. Back in those days I was a junior fund manager in London running global equities. In early August we had a meeting with Crispin Odey (now a famous hedge fund manager, but in those days he ran the Barings European Growth Fund). Crispin warned us that he thought the markets were ‘topping and rolling over’ and he recommended that we take defensive action and raise cash wherever possible. During August and early September we did indeed raise cash, expecting lower prices and a buying opportunity. Naturally none of us expected the October 19 crash, but when it happened our funds shot to the top of their respective league tables simply because we had more cash than the competition. Of course we lost money, but we lost less than other funds.
Now I look at the markets and the Bradley chart and I’m thinking 1987. Not that I expect a crash, but the pattern of topping and rolling over during August is very similar, and after everyone returns to their dealing desks in September the selling starts and accelerates downwards.
I’ll be looking to take short positions if/when the Dow gets to my target box area of 27500/27650. August might be frustrating as the market just levitates in that area. But if 1987 comes to pass, September and October should see the Dow fall into my target area around 24,000.
Of course this might all be baloney. Time will tell.
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