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Well the 1st trading day of July and 4th of July holiday
have tended to back the seasonal bullish action.A word of warning in that I have one seasonal indicator
which does not like the 2nd trading week of July.All very interesting action in Dow sp500 Nas
Best let hatman read the waves.
Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 26950 … stop 30000 … limit 18000 ( x 2 )
This is to guard against a truncation or some other crooks
type play which prevents a run up to hatmans 27500 etc.I wanted 27000 30000 18000 as a nice -3k +9k risk reward
but that will have to be shelved.Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 26950 … stop 30000 … limit 18000 ( x 2 )
If you took the trade then do not be greedy and move
your stops to lock in a profit … repeat .. repeatAnalysis is one thing but trading is another realm.
Never give up, never surrender.
DOW: the DJI is approaching my target box at 27500/27650. How it will get there is another matter. I thought it would rise in a ‘five wave move’ and it might be doing that, but the shape doesn’t look right. The alternative is that this is some sort of rising wedge thing (see chart) that plunges then rises again into the box.
Timing is also awkward – I’ve been expecting the target box to be reached nearer to the end of July, but that might not be right.
All one can do is watch and wait – wait for the right opportunity when the boxes are reached and everything feels right for a short position.
Dollar: the dollar shot upwards through the broken trendline. I suspected it would, as I mentioned the other day – there were simply too many shorts waiting at that trendline. Now the trendline has been broken and is invalidated. Quite what will happen to the dollar after this break is uncertain. I suspect some sort of triangular sideways movement, but of course with the trendline broken anything can happen.
GBP: the Pound continues to decline against the dollar, now resting on critical support at 1.25. I’m not sure of the shape of this decline – the long term chart suggests this should be a three, but at the moment it looks like a five with expanded 2nd wave. I’m not convinced either way, and I suspect the pound might bounce unexpectedly. Long term the pound looks awful.
GBP: pound long term looks like a large falling wedge with a target in the 1.00/1.10 area. Might take a year or two to get there, then the pound becomes a strong buy against the dollar. Patience needed.
GBPEUR: the pound against the Euro looks the same as the dollar – an extreme long term falling wedge pattern. For the Euro the target is in the 0.92/0.96 area, or about 20% less than today. With the possible negative effects of Brexit that 20% or so decline feels about right (and is similar to the dollar). After a couple of years the pound should bottom and then become a strong buy.
Last week I thought the Dow was on a quick drop to circa 26500
but that never took hold. I still think that is possible and
then a break above 27000 into your top box.May be Fed rate cut hopes fade and we drop only to rally
into the July FMOC.Never give up, never surrender.
DOW: I’m looking closer at the possibility of a large rising wedge developing in the DJI. This is of course just a guess, but what’s interesting is that at the peak last week the most recent rally can be interpreted as a ‘three wave’ with wave ‘c’ of that being almost exactly 0.618 of wave ‘a’. If so, the market will now try to decline probably into the 25,000/26,000 area. If that happens it will of course then need a final rise into the target area of 27500/27650.
No guarantee any of this will happen, but worth watching for.
Small short Dow at 26950 … stop 30000 … limit 18000 ( x 2 )
Closed at 26700
A nice 250pts at a time when we await the bigger picture move
is good enough for me.Never give up, never surrender.
Small short eur:gbp at 0.90000 … stop n/a … limit 0.87500
Small short eur:gbp at 0.90000 … stop n/a … limit 0.85000
Small short eur:gbp at 0.90000 … stop n/a … limit 0.82500
Small short eur:gbp at 0.90000 … stop n/a … limit 0.80000All against the flow !
I don’t expect to hold for the targets, just looking for
small profits but stranger things have happened !Never give up, never surrender.
Small short eur:gbp at 0.90000 … stop n/a … limit 0.87500
Small short eur:gbp at 0.90000 … stop n/a … limit 0.85000
Small short eur:gbp at 0.90000 … stop n/a … limit 0.82500
Small short eur:gbp at 0.90000 … stop n/a … limit 0.80000Stops moved to 0.89900
Never give up, never surrender.
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