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The daily chart still looks like nothing other than a blip down so far since the low back in October.
really impressed you got some long side earlier Dan, I did a trade this morning s&p +8 down to about +2 closed it, fell asleep on the sofa and woke at 3pm and wondered WTF had happened to warrant a vertical white candle !! I thought it might potentially grind up but went with the short option instead, phew…. Right now though I have no ideas and as the 19th (expiry) draws closer I think I might limit stakes to 25% normal because this isn’t moving around in baby steps !!
I put a little into natural gas today also (boost 3x fund in pension). I’m really tempted with oil 3x long fund in the pension but am scared to dip that toe, would like to see a massive red candle capitulation to end the run (obviously not while your long Dan).
so trailing stop obviously taken out, just after open, tempted to re-enter based on downtrend from peak but will wait for now I think….. expiry on the horizon = craziness
about time. The daily DEC SPOOS has a lovely RSI divergence on that last peak, but I’ll be honest I have just put trailing stop in place based on the recent support here. I wouldn’t be surprised if they zoomed it back up for December expiry, its that CAUTION flag of a contract expiring soon time…
And China Central bank cutting interest rates, the timing of everything is like a synchronised choir !! You couldn’t make it up !
Hey cimac,
sat quietly watching this action, what are we now about a month from quad expiries, always flags a caution sign up for me when we get this close to expiry as they drive things one way or they other. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them drive this up for the next 3 weeks and then whallop…who knows though, crystal ball would be nice, but longer term patters mean this could be the US flagging…. as in a consolidation pattern…
I’m on the go at the mo so don’t have my books, but I was thinking some form of negative e close would be a hell of a potential candle (shooting star ?) not sure from memory if that’s the right name what it would be called. More realistic I think maybe a cross of some form, interestingly vix not much lower than 2 days ago, I have entered pension into a dax short now….
Some good 60 min trend lines crossed from lows if it closes around these levels or below, closed vix short this morning (in pension) and have reversed vix long, I.e. I’d like the fed to have just put the nail in the bounce ! 😉
What I found quite interesting in the news related pieces was this bit….
As part of the exercise, the ECB also reviewed the quality of bank assets to determine whether they were accurately valued. That process resulted in banks being forced to reduce the value of their assets by a total of €48 billion, the ECB said. The central bank also identified a total of €136 billion of troubled assets, known as non-performing exposures, sitting on the balance sheets of the eurozone banks.
who knows how the markets will react, maybe it’s already priced in !.? So can the dead cat turn down again now ? 😉
I read an interesting article yesterday which inferred the opposite along the lines that they had to be quiete serious with this report because they take the reigns on the 4th Nov, kind of like a get out of jail card, “look we did say they were ****ed when we took the rigns so you can’t blame us”….. Otherwise they would be laughed out for having brushed aside any problems.
Interesting read….. Italy really is flying below the radar….or was !
http://www.eba.europa.eu/documents/10180/669262/2014+EU-wide+ST-aggregate+results.pdf
I’m itching with salvo 2 but too close to salvo one ! also I’m Gla you went short with plan that it would pay off in the future, would be might concerned if you took it for the opposite reason 😉
