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DOW: the sideways flat ABC can be seen most clearly in the DOW and NYA.
(see chart)
C=A at 28,180/200.
This latest rise looks like a ‘five’ not yet complete. We’ve had 1, 2, 3=1.618. We now need a 4th and 5th.
Clearly if it fails to reach the target area, or falters and drops, then something else is happening. But for the moment this flat with C=A looks the most likely pattern.
SPX: for SPX I’m going to assume the pattern is following the DOW and NYA, but because of TECH the shape is more volatile. For SPX this could be an ‘irregular flat’ with a slightly larger middle ‘b’ wave.
C=A at 3,405, so like the DOW it needs a final 4th and 5th to that area.
NYSE: interesting situation on the NYA daily.
On the way up the market was supported very accurately by the 21 day MA.
Since the peak, the subsequent sideways flat action has tested that 21 day MA from below three times. And three times it got rejected.
Now the MA has rolled over and is falling.
The same ABC flat (evident on the DOW and SPX) is also present in NYA albeit with a slightly upwards tilt. This resembles a ‘bear flag’ on the daily chart. Flags fly at half mast.
To complete the flat with C=A NYA needs another slight wiggle higher, and it looks like it might test that 21 day MA for a 4th time.
Bears failed on monday.
Bulls are waiting to take charge through FMOC & BoE later in the week.
My plan is to watch and see if stocks rally and then short next
week for a run down into EOM.Never give up, never surrender.
S3H seems the right lean.
Expect US stocks to shuffle about then rally.
Never give up, never surrender.
Dow and Spx futures have hit the ‘c’ / ‘B’ window of hatman’s charts.
Could be fireworks at US cash open.
I will play this via a slower market.
Small short Ftse at 6100
Never give up, never surrender.
For the DOW C=A at 28,180/200
For SPX it’s 3,405
If cash opens above these numbers then the C=A flat idea is made invalid and something else is happening.
IF the US cash markets have to spill down to complete monday S2H
then the first 30mins should be fun.I would not rule out this scenario as it would screw the bears
and then screw the bulls … a market favorite 😉Never give up, never surrender.
New moon on thursday and the odds are a ‘h’ in a +/- 2 day window.
FMOC wednesday is the major (known) event and BoE thursday is a minor event.
Never give up, never surrender.
Dow and Spx futures have hit the ‘c’ / ‘B’ window of hatman’s charts.
Could be fireworks at US cash open.
I will play this via a slower market.
Small short Ftse at 6100
Stop at b/e … odds are it will be taken soon.
Never give up, never surrender.
Although the Dow popped and failed, it did exceed the target.
SPX remains above my target area and I think that pattern has failed.
I had a small short at SPX 3,408, closed at 3,412 for a small loss.
I can see potentially how/why the C=A plan has failed and will update charts tomorrow with today’s action included.
IF the US cash markets have to spill down to complete monday S2H
then the first 30mins should be fun.We did spill down … next ? is will US rally into the close.
I think yes … these markets always rally 😉
Never give up, never surrender.
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