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SPX: if the falling wedge idea is the correct route, it should finish in the next day or two, just ahead of FOMC.
Usually (but not always) after a wedge completes there is a fast snap back rally to point ‘b’. That’s around 3,425.
Interestingly the 21 day MA also currently resides in that area.
The Fib 38.2 possible retrace is at 3,412 or so.
And if we take 3,200/20 as the next target (it might not be) and add wave ‘A’ of 235 points we get a target of 2,435/55.
So the target range for any snap back is 3,312/55 with point ‘b’ in the middle at 3,425.
GBPUSD: my ‘five up’ idea has failed. The very sharp drop last week cannot be part of a 4th wave. I’ve changed the count to a ‘three’. Because the RSI and MACD readings were highest at the peak, this ‘three’ might just be the first part of a larger ABC.
SPX/ and NYA: on this chart I’ve combined the SPX and NYA charts. They are slightly different, with SPX appearing to be in a falling wedge ‘C’ (to complete ‘A’) and NYA (and the DOW) appearing to be in a sideways triangle ‘B’.
If the SPX wedge is correct and resolves in a sharp upwards thrust back to ‘b’, then that looks rather strange to NYA. This suggests that instead of a triangle, NYA might be a flat ABC which will allow for a bigger move at the end.
Of course the difference in shape might simply be that SPX has a far larger TECH component and thus has exaggerated moves compared to the more traditional NYA.
September often exhibits an ‘abc’ down type look
and I think that could happen this year.Never give up, never surrender.
Not a good start for the bears but it is how you finish.
Pop and drop is good for the bears but the timing is odd
and we may see another rallyette when US cash opens.Never give up, never surrender.
SPX: ‘perfect’ target is for an overlap of 3,375, which futures have done. Good target range is 75/90. However I’ll be a little concerned if it goes straight there because that doesn’t fit well with a triangle move – sloppy overlapping and a clear abc would give confidence.
Futures have shown the target range. Best if cash starts lower and fiddles around for a bit.
David,
How are your sailing lessons going ?
How is your lovely Korean girl ?
How are your parents in Barnet ?
Never give up, never surrender.
The amplitude of US stocks pop is interesting ???
Euroland indicates that even this US pop will drop a lot.
Let’s see.
Never give up, never surrender.
Well it’s been a non event for me today but I have
traded enough to close my Ftse short for no loss.Start again tomorrow.
Never give up, never surrender.
SPX: ‘perfect’ target is for an overlap of 3,375, which futures have done. Good target range is 75/90. However I’ll be a little concerned if it goes straight there because that doesn’t fit well with a triangle move – sloppy overlapping and a clear abc would give confidence. Futures have shown the target range. Best if cash starts lower and fiddles around for a bit.
It went straight up and the shape no longer fits with a triangle. It looks like a ‘five’ not yet complete. Very likely the final move in an abc flat sideways correction where C=A.
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