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SPX: there’s a second count on my chart shown in brown that represents an upwards ‘three’ move. It’s not convincing due to the lack of overlap, but it’s there because that pattern looks more likely for DJI and NYA. it’s quite possible that SPX is fives due to the tech weighting and the DJI and NYA are threes.
DXY: the dollar trade weighted index still hasn’t hit the 91/90.5 target. It appears to be in a 5th wave (of C) probably declining as a falling wedge. As you can see from the chart, the wedge thing can continue for another week or two yet…
NYA: the NYSE Index is showing a clean ‘five up’ from what I’ve marked as wave B.
I’m showing the B as the secondary low (guess) as the MACD went lower.
Since that B low we appear to have i, ii, iii = 1.618, iv, and now trying to complete wave v.
The target is in the area 13,280 to 13,350 (probably the higher number).
It touched 13,300 yesterday, so it’s close.
Because NYA and DJI have much smaller tech components (particularly NYA which represents the broader market) the pattern is slightly different compared to SPX (as one might expect).
Something has to reach the top of this market first, and it might be NYA. SPX can continue higher driven by tech.
Clearly if NYA goes above 13,350 then this count is wrong.
If we get through September without a panic drop then it
would be a remarkable outcome.Which big name bank or company will be first to be swept
away by the tsunami of debt.Never give up, never surrender.
Merriman has this:
“All financial and commodity markets are vulnerable to major reversals shortly as Mars will turn
retrograde on September 9 and Jupiter will turn direct on September 12. Even before then, Venus
(values, money) will be in opposition to Jupiter, Pluto, and Saturn August 25-September 2, and forming
a T-square with Mars on September 4. These are geocosmic reversal signatures, and the entire time
between now and mid-September can witness cyclical highs or lows from which reversals unfold”.In the universe everything has to be in balance / paid for
and these 12 yrs of very low interest rates have slowly
created huge unseen problems.Some entities have not recovered from Credit Crunch I and
now Credit Crunch II will finish them off.I think trouble may start in euroland.
Never give up, never surrender.
Dax is the latest cash market which appears to
have broken up out of lines in the sand.Spx did this yesterday.
It depends how you draw the lines.
However we wait and see if this is confirmed.
Never give up, never surrender.
Dax is the latest cash market which appears to
have broken up out of lines in the sand.Spx did this yesterday.
It depends how you draw the lines.
However we wait and see if this is confirmed.
Dax line circa 13400 on my chart, fwiw.
Simple .. bulls want above and bears want below.
Never give up, never surrender.
When the Dax touched 13400 the Ftse touched 6000
but for me the later is just a round number.Ftse failed a while back at the 6500 test.
Never give up, never surrender.
New moon highs and full moon lows has some support because
of the moon shielding the earth from the suns neg waves.However this week we have the reverse unless this rally
falters by friday.STD has been a nightmare this week.
US now looks like S1H S2L S3L today S4H friday.
We are all learning to adapt.
Never give up, never surrender.
Brexit talks near to collapse.
Prior to covid19 this would have been a larger negative
for the UK than the EU.The pandemic has rolled the dice again and the outcomes may
hang on whose financial house keeping is in the best order.Neither side will come out unbruised but I have more
faith in the BoE than the EcB.Never give up, never surrender.
Nasdaq COMP: I have a possible count for the COMP.
On the attached chart I’ve shown waves 1 and 2 followed by a 2.618 3rd wave (a 2.618 third wave is not unusual for tech stocks on a roll). I can just about see how that middle wave can be a five.
If so, we are now in the final 5th which is likely to be 0.618 of the total of waves 1-3.
This gives a target of 12,735.
Interestingly quite a clear five wave pattern upwards is developing for this final 5th.
If so, we are very close to a 1.618 wave iii target of 12,125.
COMP: I should have added that if it goes above 12,125 by any meaningful amount then clearly my count is wrong.
COMP RSI: in this chart of the COMP I’m showing the RSI which has reached 80.
Notice that over the past couple of years that 80 level has been an early warning – on each occasion the market fell but then rose to a final new high with divergence.
That’s what my previous chart today is suggesting – a peak nearby around 12,125 followed by a 4th wave down to about 11,785 (or lower if it’s the start of a triangle) then a final 5th of 5th to around 12,735 with RSI divergence.
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