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The rally in Ftse Dax Dow Spx Nas has run out of steam
so I guess we just have to see where we are at US close.In some stocks it’s almost a rejection of the hod ?
Never give up, never surrender.
DOW: The DOW target was 28,180/200. It touched 28,220 then fell away. It can be argued that the ‘five up’ completed wave ‘c’, after all it only exceeded the target by 20 points or so.
I’m still marking the DOW chart as the sideways flat abc.
Unfortunately this is NOT confirmed by the other indices.
DOW DAILY: on the DOW daily chart the index has now tried to rally up to the 21 day MA and has been rejected four times. It popped above yesterday then fell 200 points again closing below that 21 day.
Interesting, but unfortunately there’s no real evidence that the 21 day has been important for the DOW in the past.
The 50 MA however is far more significant. Notice on the chart the number of times the market fell to test the 50 exactly. It hasn’t yet done that in this correction.
The 50 is still rising and in the next few days will meet the lower edge of the sideways flat and the quadruple bottom at 27,500 or so.
My feeling here is that the DOW will somehow decline to meet that 50 MA possibly finding support at that 27,500 line.
Again, this is unfortunately NOT confirmed by the other indices.
SPX: it would be perfect if SPX confirms the DOW pattern, but unfortunately that isn’t the case.
SPX can still be a sideways flat finishing in a five wave ‘c’, but it’s all a bit scrappy.
There doesn’t appear to be any relationship between waves ‘a’ and ‘b’ or ‘a’ and ‘c’.
Of course it might just be some sort of sloppy sideways thing, after all nothing in life is perfect.
What can be said is that SPX rallied upwards to resistance at 3,420. That line has now been touched and rejected multiple times and it coincides with the daily 21 MA.
NYSE: unfortunately the NYA is even more scrappy than SPX.
The target for C=A was around 12,990. It got to 13,050.
In doing so it got above the line of resistance at 12,960 which also acted as support late in the day.
It also broke upwards through the daily 21 day MA and closed above it.
Yes, this can still be interpreted as a sideways flat, but I wouldn’t bet money on it.
So it’s all a bit uncertain. I can see a trade opportunity in the DOW, going short as close as possible to the 2 28,000/200 area with a stop just above. And a similar trade in SPX with a stop above that 3,420/5 resistance line. I don’t however see these as high risk/reward and I’ll more likely just stand aside and monitor things while I wait for something more certain to develop.
Good work hatman
In general I think we rally a bit and then move down into EOM
Time and price unclear but as a drop guard …
Small short Ftse at 6100
Never give up, never surrender.
Yes David, today the FMOC has rolled the dice but the result
will be the same.IF all major stock markets are not lower by EOM then I will
take a multi month holiday and turn my attentions to my
other activity of being a toy boy 😉Never give up, never surrender.
I have today as spill up to seal S3H tuesday and then down into S4L
S4L has many variants and in this market they will be used.
Bottom line we either close near lows or spill down thursday
and then S1H and S2L friday ( based on no flip ).Unless we ‘Rocket Ron Haslam’ we are going down into EOM.
Never give up, never surrender.
Small long Nas at 11400
Then I would like to small short at 11500
Then I would hold both.
Risky trade set up.
Never give up, never surrender.
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