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I often look at the old dog Ftse for clues.
Atm it is playing around 5900 in what could be a triangle.
IF so we may have had ‘a’ down and are now in ‘b’ (an ‘abc’ triangle)
before we drop again in ‘c’ to target sub 5800.This would just be part of some larger complex pattern.
Time wise this would end in futures tonight or early cash wednesday.
It’s a sell 5900 stop 6000 limit 5800 type of trade so not the
best risk / reward ratio that I like.Never give up, never surrender.
Euroland into cash close …
Dax keeps 13000 in view … Ftse keeps 6000 in view
Both had a reasonable close … kind of ‘V’ shape day.What kind of S4L can US stocks conjure up.
Never give up, never surrender.
Dow will try and rally from 27490 to new aths !
Got moving then faded. We have tided up after the holiday.
Odds are S1H wednesday
EcB thursday
Never give up, never surrender.
COMP: yesterday I showed that the RSI 50 had always held as support since the start of the virus rally. Yesterday that support failed (see chart).
I have to assume that a major change in trend is taking place, switching from bull to bear.
Unfortunately I didn’t have a complete count to the top. I think it’s clear that this drop cannot be a 4th wave.
So it’s likely the ‘top is in’ and we should look for the first complete ABC down (or a five).
DXY: the dollar seems to have bottomed at 91.5. The target was 90.5/91 so it got close.
Now it has broken upwards through the declining top trendline.
Also the RSI is trying to break above 50.
If this is a B wave it might want to rise to overlap 95.7. Now at 93.5.
We discussed before the inverse relationship between the dollar and the equity markets. *If* the dollar has bottomed and rises further, that might be negative for equities.
SPX: at 3595 SPX appears to have completed wave ‘C’.
We got wave ‘A’ which included a ‘c’ that was 0.618*a (although the pattern looks uncomfortable I have to assume it was a completed ‘c’ due to the fib ratio.
Now, at 3595, wave ‘C’ is exactly 0.618*A. Again the pattern isn’t clean, but I’m going to have to assume that it was a ‘five’.
Based on this completed ABC the ‘top is in’ for SPX.
In the wave A,B the market tested the 200 day MA twice. I’ll assume it wants to do that again. However the first target is an overlap of ‘A’ at 3220.
Small short Ftse at 6000 … stop 7000 … limit 4000
This trade can run in the background and I think it must be
one of the best of my 2020 risk / reward ratio entries.Never give up, never surrender.
Looks like we will see a few decent moves in September
up and down as the market traders thrash about in
an attempt to make profits and avoid loss.I have made good profits from the Dax and still think
the tops in and we are in a kind of middle pattern
and will after EcB get another drop.Atm I would not really like to lable the waves.
Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dax at 13250 … stop 14050 … limit 8800
This is my other background trade for autumn 2020
Never give up, never surrender.
Dax … from the recent ‘h’ I am reading ‘5’ down and ‘3’ up
and so now expecting another drop.This could be ‘a’ down and ‘b’ up expecting ‘c’ down.
This could be ‘1’ down and ‘2’ up expecting ‘3’ down.
The wave count and pattern can come later.
Never give up, never surrender.
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