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Is this STD day 2?
STD S1 … odds were S1H and that looks confirmed by euroland.
Never give up, never surrender.
I am using my indicators ( which are bearish this week )
with a pinch of salt because there is panic out there.Since the March lows it has been buy the dips and now
we have a different ball game.Atm any day could be poison for bulls and or bears
and I love it, a day traders market.Never give up, never surrender.
SPX: it’s possible that SPX has completed the first ABC down with ‘C’ as a falling wedge.
C is equal to A.
If so, we should now get the B wave rally. Minimum target is an overlap of ‘A’ at 3,425 although wedges often retrace back to ‘point b’ which is at 3,450.
As this is STD 1 with a strong start, I’ll assume that this trend will continue into the end of the week – a sloppy rising B wave.
Yes that wedge retrace thing could be right.
On the Dax we could even see a d/t circa 13465 but that
would then reset the downside potential by a lot.For my Dax short the initial ‘pain’ would then be paid
back in spades so I will go with the flow.I am not changing my Dax or Ftse short trades.
Never give up, never surrender.
Wed S1H +
Thu S2L +
Fri S3L –
Mon S2H –So we may get a shortened positive support from this STD.
Time and price may indicate a black monday but then I
would say that because my short trades need it 🙂Never give up, never surrender.
DOW: the Dow appears to have completed an abc rally from the low, with c=0.618.
As we are STD 1, 2, I’m going to assume that the trend will continue and that this is just wave ‘A’ which will be followed by ‘B’ and ‘C’ higher. In fact the last minutes drop has already overlapped ‘a’ so ‘B’ appears to be in progress.
SPX: looking at the situation again (ref my Dow chart above) I now see two possibilities.
Bear with me a moment…
The first abc drop was 255 points. If we assume C=A we can add 255 to 3,200/20 and get a target for wave ‘B’ in the 3,455/75 area. That would fit very nicely with the ‘a’ overlap scenario (in fact almost exactly). See green line on chart.
However, wave ‘C’ is often 0.618 which is 157 points. if we add that to 3,200/20 we get 3,357/77. What’s fascinating about that is that it resides EXACTLY in the middle of yesterdays rally and *could* be a target for a triangle (see chart). Coincidence? Or perhaps just nonsense.
So although an abc rally up to the 3,455/75 area is the most obvious route, bear in mind that the alternative triangle is also valid and compelling. The triangle would also keep the daily RSI below 50. B waves are often triangles as we know.
Should have noted that 3,200/20 is a combination of Peter Eliades 3,200 projection (he is excellent) and the overlap/support at 3,220.
SPX: hmmm… did some more calculations and came up with something surprising.
In the last two corrections spx targeted the 200 day MA which acted as support. It might try to do that again. Currently the MA is at 3,100.
Thing is – if we add the 255 point wave ‘A’ drop to the 200 MA for a C=A we get 3,355 That is slap bang on the possible triangle apex and equal to the targets for a potential C=0.618.
Also, the RSI found resistance at 50. A triangle now will reinforce that resistance.
So the triangle route is looking more likely. If it transpires and then resolves downwards we’ve got a C=0.618 target at 3,200/20 support but a C=A target at the 200 MA at 3,100.
If it wants that 3,100, you might indeed get your Black Monday cimac.
Cheers David.
Got that autumn feeling … darker days feared by ancient peoples.
Never give up, never surrender.
Be aware that Peter Eliades has an eventual price target of around 4,000 for SPX. He has been very accurate over the past year using his Hurst Cycles stuff.
I also saw a report from Credit Suisse recently which said ‘don’t be surprised to see a liquidity driven surge in the first few months of next year to much higher levels’. They also mentioned 4,000 or so.
Also, Technical Traders (who have not called the market correctly this year) have their own software which is also calling for around 4,000.
This peak at 3,595 might just be a bigger ‘wave A’ of a bigger ABC especially if we get Trump with a landslide AND a vaccine.
If we assume another leg higher for ‘C’ then it’s reasonable to assume that will be another 0.618*A. Deducting that from 4,000 gives 3,137, almost exactly in line with the current 200MA.
So if the current market DOES drop to 3,100, everyone will be screaming ‘bear market’ but they might be surprised the wrong way.
Well I would like stocks to revisit march lows but
that does not seem likely in 2020I have 2021 penciled in for the next big lows.
So then there is a time problem and that could be
resolved with a drop and then new aths by Xmas.The Ftse – Dax disconnect muddies the water and
that ‘could’ be resolved by a larger Dax drop
now then a stronger Ftse rally.Never give up, never surrender.
Dax short (13250) closed at 13230
Ftse short (6000) closed at 5980I said I would not do this but this could be an S2L
in euroland to get me higher up the tree.Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dax at 13252 … stop 14050 … limit 8800
That will have to do. I will not reopen the Ftse short.
This my only position to trade what we have posted.
Never give up, never surrender.
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