[Salty]

I have no problem seeing the DOW in high 20,000s even 30,000 by 2032, but the bit about Between 2010 and 2012 food price inflation will emerge and central banks will have to raise interest rates significantly to curtail 20% pa price rises is almost funny with that wonderful commodity hindsight.

I have unambitious targets of 2337 and possibly 2324 for SP500 cash early next week stop just above recent highs at 2352ish. Close today looks like being little change on the day.

Looking to possible rate rise in USA next month so dollar possibly stronger, stocks lower.

Please feel free to trade the opposite to me - but whatever take responsibility for yourself and above all DYOR !

[Salty]

I have been away from the forum for a long time.
Does hatman still post here?
I believe the following is something that I saved from one of his posts in August 2007 (nearly 10 years ago – how time flies). It seemed reasonable at the time and probably shows just how distorted markets have become with QE and the rest.
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The Dow and S&P roadmaps remain exactly as I suggested a year ago, albeit with a few price peaks different from my suggested levels. That doesn’t matter because it’s the shape that counts.

Both indices are on course to achieve important peaks in March or July 2012. Nothing has changed. This correction is just wave (iv) of (3) of 3, in other words we haven’t hit the top of wave 3 of this present sequence yet. Wave 3 should get hit next Spring at around Dow 15,000. Then we’ll get a two year sideways triangle thing followed by an ascending ED to Dow 18,000 in 2012. S&P will hit 2200 in 2012. None of that has changed.

This present correction should last until Sept/Oct and be a sloppy triangle, probably with a truncated ‘e’ wave. The ‘e’ should culminate at SPX 1434 and Dow 12900 or thereabouts. Wave ‘a’ of the shape could go much lower than that of course.

All this sub prime mortage nonsense is just noise. Forget it.

Many people think we are in a final wave 5 thing. They are wrong. All of the present action leading up to 2012 is wave (iv) of wave (3) of a five wave move that will end in 2032. Between 2012 and 2018 we will get a wave 4 triangle thing which will be absolutely horrible and everyone will be calling the end of the world, but then we will head north in the final 5th wave to the year 2032. The Dow will hit 30,000. After 2032 the Dow will not see 30,000 again for more than 60 years.

Interest rates continue to rise everywhere. They have much further to go. Between 2010 and 2012 food price inflation will emerge and central banks will have to raise interest rates significantly to curtail 20% pa price rises. Expect mortage rate in the US to hit around 9% to 11%, possibly higher, rates in the UK to spike to 13%. House prices may already have peaked in the West, four or five years before the peak in other asset values.

I have all my money in bank deposits earning 6.25% in our strong Australian currency. Next year I’ll be getting 7.25% and I’ll try to lock in a spike later at around 11%.

In equity markets there is a nice easy jump coming between Sept/Oct this year and Spring next year. After that life will be more difficult. Please remember that in the final two years ED most assets will underperform and the indices will be driven higher by just a few leaders.
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Please feel free to trade the opposite to me - but whatever take responsibility for yourself and above all DYOR !

[Salty]

arkangel – you might have warned people that if they sit all through the presentation on that link it takes 48 minutes which include plugging moneyweek plus 12 minutes of pure plugging money week publications. The gist of it can be read at your own pace on this link http://moneyweek.com/endofbritain/
That takes about 55 screens to page down but at least you can skip read bits.

Now – what do people suggest as good alternative investments to prepare for financial collapse. I already have a cellar full of baked beans, sugar and porridge 🙂

PS persisting with short AUD/USD finally paid of after I gave up posting my trades.

Please feel free to trade the opposite to me - but whatever take responsibility for yourself and above all DYOR !

[Salty]

Sorry for delay in reporting but SL well and truly sliced through for my re-entered short AUD/USD 0.9530 for -45 …… hence my signature from now on.

Good to see more voices on here with respect for views on both sides because that is what makes the market and often there is room to profit both ways.
Even better to see many posting more successful trades than me :-{

Good weekend to all.

Please feel free to trade the opposite to me - but whatever take responsibility for yourself and above all DYOR !

[Salty]

Stopped out of AUD/USD short for -25 back in @ 0.9530 1st target 0.9480 .

Well done Arkangel on getting your target for last week. GL for this week.

Please feel free to trade the opposite to me - but whatever take responsibility for yourself and above all DYOR !

[Salty]

Selling AUD/USD around 0.9480 target 1 0.9450 (then close half and stops to slightly above break even).

Please feel free to trade the opposite to me - but whatever take responsibility for yourself and above all DYOR !

[Salty]

Sorry Khalsa. Cannot see any ads on the right (or anywhere). Have they been removed?

Quiet here I guess everyone (except arkangel) followed the MS short tip and having a day off – Thanks K.

Please feel free to trade the opposite to me - but whatever take responsibility for yourself and above all DYOR !

[Salty]

Thanks Khalsa. I have now seen the alternate log in link and the visitor count.

My trade as posted was a spectacular fail. Your full on bearish view was right. I lose 5 points.
Feel free to do the exact opposite of any trades I post but only after you DYOR 🙂

Please feel free to trade the opposite to me - but whatever take responsibility for yourself and above all DYOR !

[Salty]

Khalsa, the link to the old pad is obscuring the login button in my browser and I can only view the forum content when logged in. Do you think this might be why some people are not coming to the new site?

Also I cannot see if there is a way to see who else oir at least how many others are reading the forums which we could do on the old pad.

edit: just realised that the bar linking to old pad moves away after a short delay so that the login button is revealed.

Please feel free to trade the opposite to me - but whatever take responsibility for yourself and above all DYOR !

[Salty]

Thanks zarif.

Not much reaction to the U.S, Weekly Jobless Claims despite not much change from previous figures being expected and initial claims being up a bit.
Initial Claims (000’s) 308K vs. 325K exp. vs. 309K prev.
Continued Claims (mln) 2.925 vs. 2.860 exp. vs. 2.787 prev.

My thinking is this might lead to an initial dip when US opens then a rally so placing order to buy at 1684.5 SP cash with initial sl 5 points and tp 6 points.

Please feel free to trade the opposite to me - but whatever take responsibility for yourself and above all DYOR !

[Salty]

Well my sP500 stop survived the open of US market but not for long. The anticipation of FED money coming into the markets did not counter the down trend – I think that Khalsa will have been happy as I suspect he was short. At least loss was limited and made up for by gains yesterday. So that is me done for this week. Good luck and safe trading to anyone reading.

Not sure if this counts as a support break yet but beginning to look like two levels gone now.

Please feel free to trade the opposite to me - but whatever take responsibility for yourself and above all DYOR !

[Salty]

Glad to have taken profit on yesterdays short cable position. USD looking weak at the moment. 2 hourly closes above 1.6120 for cable could open up 1.63. Anybody else see that ?

Please feel free to trade the opposite to me - but whatever take responsibility for yourself and above all DYOR !

[Salty]

adding to AUD/JPY at 91.67 avge entry now 92. Hard stop placed trade idea is wrong if goes below 90.80 big risk don’t expect anyone to follow without own reasoning.

edited AUD/USD to AUD/JPY

Please feel free to trade the opposite to me - but whatever take responsibility for yourself and above all DYOR !

[Salty]

buying at 1691.6 cash (ooh capital spreads) for +/- 4 points

Please feel free to trade the opposite to me - but whatever take responsibility for yourself and above all DYOR !

[Salty]

Thanks gecko. A lot of money being put into the market today. I think I will be going long 1695 ish cash SP500 hoping to be out early.  3 points will do me, but stop would have to be below the support identified at 1690 cash so weighing up if it is worth it.
May just be a scalping morning and worry free weekend.

Not adding to AUD/JPY long yet. It is underwater now but was always a longer term position.

 

Please feel free to trade the opposite to me - but whatever take responsibility for yourself and above all DYOR !

[Author]

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