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I have been away from the forum for a long time.
Does hatman still post here?
I believe the following is something that I saved from one of his posts in August 2007 (nearly 10 years ago – how time flies). It seemed reasonable at the time and probably shows just how distorted markets have become with QE and the rest.
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The Dow and S&P roadmaps remain exactly as I suggested a year ago, albeit with a few price peaks different from my suggested levels. That doesn’t matter because it’s the shape that counts.Both indices are on course to achieve important peaks in March or July 2012. Nothing has changed. This correction is just wave (iv) of (3) of 3, in other words we haven’t hit the top of wave 3 of this present sequence yet. Wave 3 should get hit next Spring at around Dow 15,000. Then we’ll get a two year sideways triangle thing followed by an ascending ED to Dow 18,000 in 2012. S&P will hit 2200 in 2012. None of that has changed.
This present correction should last until Sept/Oct and be a sloppy triangle, probably with a truncated ‘e’ wave. The ‘e’ should culminate at SPX 1434 and Dow 12900 or thereabouts. Wave ‘a’ of the shape could go much lower than that of course.
All this sub prime mortage nonsense is just noise. Forget it.
Many people think we are in a final wave 5 thing. They are wrong. All of the present action leading up to 2012 is wave (iv) of wave (3) of a five wave move that will end in 2032. Between 2012 and 2018 we will get a wave 4 triangle thing which will be absolutely horrible and everyone will be calling the end of the world, but then we will head north in the final 5th wave to the year 2032. The Dow will hit 30,000. After 2032 the Dow will not see 30,000 again for more than 60 years.
Interest rates continue to rise everywhere. They have much further to go. Between 2010 and 2012 food price inflation will emerge and central banks will have to raise interest rates significantly to curtail 20% pa price rises. Expect mortage rate in the US to hit around 9% to 11%, possibly higher, rates in the UK to spike to 13%. House prices may already have peaked in the West, four or five years before the peak in other asset values.
I have all my money in bank deposits earning 6.25% in our strong Australian currency. Next year I’ll be getting 7.25% and I’ll try to lock in a spike later at around 11%.
In equity markets there is a nice easy jump coming between Sept/Oct this year and Spring next year. After that life will be more difficult. Please remember that in the final two years ED most assets will underperform and the indices will be driven higher by just a few leaders.
—————Please feel free to trade the opposite to me - but whatever take responsibility for yourself and above all DYOR !
welcome back salty,hatman hasnt posted here for a while now.you never know when next,people tend to pop in and out sporadically.was good to see stockman back briefly before xmas,tepid due to show up soon lol
Hi Salty … that is a good post and it may still be correct.
I have the Dow hitting 23000 in my big picture and with the
percentage of error we use it could be 30000 !Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Ftse 7310
Atleast that is about 19 above the close so worst case gap
up monday would put the magnets on to bring it down.If the US markets rally higher I will add to the short and
be happy at Ftse 7325 and 7350 for the 2nd and last entry.Never give up, never surrender.
I have no problem seeing the DOW in high 20,000s even 30,000 by 2032, but the bit about Between 2010 and 2012 food price inflation will emerge and central banks will have to raise interest rates significantly to curtail 20% pa price rises is almost funny with that wonderful commodity hindsight.
I have unambitious targets of 2337 and possibly 2324 for SP500 cash early next week stop just above recent highs at 2352ish. Close today looks like being little change on the day.
Looking to possible rate rise in USA next month so dollar possibly stronger, stocks lower.
Please feel free to trade the opposite to me - but whatever take responsibility for yourself and above all DYOR !
my roadmap for next week,is down to 2334 by wednesday,then up to a new and maybe final top..but said with a tongue firmly in cheek as every bloody cit is getting blown out the water.
Not my market but spx 2334 looks very likely
and then new aths into Venus retrograde and
then a decent drop before new aths again.I am more interested in Dow and Ftse equiv
prices but timing will be as spx.A chance for short long short profits if
we are very alert and not greedy.Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Ftse 7310
Close at b/e
Not required as I have the Dow short to cover
any downside, assuming we ever get any.Never give up, never surrender.
Short Dow 20680
Minor typo and the full trade is.
Small short Dow 20681 – stop 22125 – limit 18100
Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow 20681
Closed 20644 … take the money and run.
No trades open atm.
I will look again later.
Never give up, never surrender.
I will walk away for the rest of the day but
leave entry orders to short in three parts.Dow 20650 and 20675 and 20700
Never give up, never surrender.
This is my entry, the others have been deleted,
so I just go into tuesday with.Short Dow 20651 – stop 22225 – limit 18100
Never give up, never surrender.
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