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SPX: the sharp dramatic rise after FOMC looks like a five, but closer examination suggests it could also have been an abc with c=0.618. That would make it a B wave or the start of a triangle, or even the start of a rising wedge.
The extreme bullish view would be a five, but that would eventually project very high and doesn’t fit with anything I have on my roadmap.
The more bearish view is that it is the start of a B wave triangle that will eventually lead to a test of the target area at 2970. This triangle idea would ‘fit’ with the possibility of this being a ‘long and flat 4th wave’.
Of course it’s impossible to tell at the moment and some further price action is needed to eliminate options and give better clues.
Cheers.hatman
I think that lower retest will happen.
An alt could be a truncated 5th which would tend to
upset the most trade plans.Never give up, never surrender.
My main plan and market projection remains the ‘leading diagonal of wave 3’ as shown on my earlier chart (chart not updated).
For this to be the correct view, Dow and SPX have to print a slightly higher ATH before then dropping again inside the rising triangle.
Well hatman if that projection for the Dow is correct
then I will be the first to contribute to you
being awarded the golden kpad crown …
… but by then I may have to give an I.O.U.Never give up, never surrender.
After all this movement I am …
…
Small short Dow at 27150 … stop 36000 … limit 18000 ( x 2 )
…
That position plays two ways in that it gives me a drop guard
should there be …
(1) Weekend action in the oil states.
(2) The drop / retest in hatman’s excellent chart.
…
Beyond items (1) and (2)
…
I still look for Dow 27650 circa 6th October.Never give up, never surrender.
After all this movement I am …
…
Small short Dow at 27150 … stop 36000 … limit 18000 ( x 2 )Closed at 26950 … take the 200pts x 2 and be very happy.
Dow has re tested wednesday’s post FMOC low tick.
I have no idea what happens next and I am not
going to hand around to find out.Never give up, never surrender.
DOW: Well I suspected that the FOMC upwards spike wasn’t a five but a corrective three and that now looks confirmed. I haven’t placed any trades this week because I’ve been busy with other things, but I’m at least encouraged that my interpretation of the market was correct.
Tying in the with idea that this is a ‘long and flat 4th wave’ and assuming the market is now in some sort of triangle form, this can be a triangle that breaks upwards or breaks downwards. Either way several more days will likely be required.
Of course it might not be a triangle at all but some other sideways move. The triangle idea is a ‘best guess’.
I should have added that I favor the eventual downwards break, which I suspect will be a buying opportunity for the 5th wave up. Neither Dow nor SPX reached their most logical 4th wave target points of 26,800 and 2970.
I have updated the Dow leading diagonal chart to try to look for some price targets.
The eventual diagonal peak should be in the 27,685 area, but I cannot estimate the timing. I’ll guess january.
Just drawing a simple straight line and taking the mid point of the highs gives around 27,542 for the current five wave advance.
If this *is* five up then we can guess wave 4 in the 61.8 area or around 26,700. The 61.8 of the current wave is 26,800, so somewhere in the number range would be a logical guess.
There’s divergence in RSI and MACD daily which is what one would expect in a rising triangle. However the very short term picture doesn’t really show enough opportunity for divergence in a 5th up. More time is needed, which would fit with the ‘long and flat 4th’.
RUT: I crunched a few numbers to try to plot the current ‘five up’ sequence.
It’s difficult because of the very strong moves, but one calculation suggests RUT can fall farther in the present consolidation, perhaps into the 1530/40 area. Currently trading at 1560 that would represent a further drop roughly equivalent to the targets for Dow and SPX.
Cheers hatman … you’ve been a busy boy.
I look forward to sunday nights Dow futures opening.
Never give up, never surrender.
Cheers hatman … you’ve been a busy boy. I look forward to sunday nights Dow futures opening.
Well we’ve got a typhoon raging outside this weekend with gale force wind and torrential sideways rain. May as well do some work, go to the gym – no point even thinking about venturing outside.
We’ll have this typhoon two or three days. Don’t get many of them but when they happen they are really interesting.
Dow futures have to recover to around 26,940 before cash opens otherwise the triangle idea is likely invalidated and something else is going on.
Dow 27000 is the new line in the sand, bull above, bear below.
Tricky call … time for the lucky coin !
Never give up, never surrender.
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