- This topic has 210 replies, 4 voices, and was last updated 4 years, 10 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
SPX: after spending so much time looking at RUT, I’ve been trying to decipher Dow and SPX to see if any patterns match the potential upside projections in RUT.
For the S&P I’ve been looking at the sideways move lower as a triangle (which it might be). However, looking at the daily chart there’s the possibility that it wasn’t a triangle at all, the reason being that one of the middle moves looks like a ‘five’ (see chart).
Interestingly if we take that ‘five’ and multiply by 1.618 we get 3020 for ‘wave 3’ which is where the market peaked last night.
In other words, this could be a ‘five up’ as part of the potential ‘leading diagonal’ I showed for the Dow. It would also fit with the RUT pattern.
If this is true, then SPX has now printed 1,2,3 and should drop to the 2950 area for wave 4.
This would also make the Dow pattern a ‘five up’ instead of a three or rising wedge.
If the Dow chart and SPX daily charts are correct, then the market should look to correct downwards over the next couple of days, before then rising strongly again.
Today appears to be ‘day 3’ of STD so markets might try to retest the highs of yesterday.
Monday, Tuesday will be 2,3 of the new sequence and I suppose it’s likely that those days will be the downwards correction sequence.
Small short Dow at 27300 … stop 35500 … limit 18000
Closed at 27225
The drop has not been large enough for me so take the
profit and relax over the weekend.Never give up, never surrender.
It’s no surprise that the market didn’t drop significantly – it was ‘day 3’ of the STD sequence so one should have expected it to levitate near the highs.
If my calculations are correct, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday are days 2, 3, 4 in the next sequence and perhaps the Dow downside target of 26,800 will be met during that time.
However…
… let’s suppose that this SPX chart of ‘fives’ is correct (which it might not be). One can see that wave ‘2’ was short and sharp. According to the rather silly Elliot rule of alternation, that would mean that wave ‘4’ would have to be long and flat. Possibly a triangle. This might mean that wave ‘4’ lasts a couple of STD sequences, possibly ’til the end of next week.
That wave 4 could indeed eat up some of the clock.
FOMC wednesday
BOE thursday ( non event )
BOJ thursdayAfter that the US – China trade meeting will now take
place after 1st October (avoids political birthday).That’s the potential market good news map.
I will stick with 6th October ‘top’ window.
Never give up, never surrender.
Using the Dow 2007 model.
Dow 27650 on 6th October … call both numbers zones.
IF that is correct then we have seen the big rally and from
now until we ‘top’ there will be limited downside and upside.So we have the lines in the sand and therefore it will be
crystal clear if this prediction is wrong.I have no position but will leave an entry order to
short the Dow at 27500Never give up, never surrender.
SPX: 3020 was an exact 0.618 of the previous rise. From the daily chart this is likely wave 3. On Friday it levitated in that area (presumably due to it being day 3 STD) but displays a small abc downwards move.
Next week is likely to see a continuation of that move towards FOMC.
The overlap is quite near at 2990 but the ‘perfect 0.382 retrace’ is lower at 2970.
If this is indeed wave ‘4’ then at some point it will rise in wave 5.
Dow futures have seen 27000 for a tempting long !
Friday was S3L but did not have the late lower ‘l’.
Assume sunday S1L
We have good reason for this drop.
Monday S2H.
Should see fireworks for Dow cash !
Never give up, never surrender.
Dow futures have seen 27000 for a tempting long !
If you took the long then close at 27100 now.
Safer to take the money.
It’s possible we may see 27000 – 27050 later today.
Never give up, never surrender.
As shown on the SPX chart there’s strong support at 2990. The futures went lower but have now recovered to that area. SPX cash will probably test 2990 and perhaps bounce higher before the next decline in this sequence.
My map for the Dow today may well see 27000-27050 in cash but
there is something not quite right re STD pt timing.When we do not see what we expect to see, a red flag is raised.
Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 27100 … stop 36000 … limit 18000
Time for my drop guard.
Never give up, never surrender.
SPX: as expected SPX found support at 2990 and bounced. If this is the Elliot Wave 4th long/flat (which it might not be) then the market might fiddle around with this 2990 area for a few days, just going sideways.
There’s the lower target at 2970 which might print at some point, but when remains a mystery.
RUT closed at a new high which suggests underlying strength in this market, which is a danger signal for shorts.
RUT: the RUT spiked upwards at the cash opening and closed at a new high for this move. This is in contrast to Dow and SPX. This underlying strength in RUT suggests ‘hidden’ strength in the overall market.
For RUT I find it difficult to count and analyse – it’s one of those markets that jumps in Fib multiples. I’ll guess that it is trying to form some sort of 3rd and 4th wave here, but to what degree I don’t know.
In the bigger picture I have targets at 1611 and 1660 for wave i of 3. How it will get there remains to be seen.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.