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Today Ftse S4H … early and late ‘h’.
Possible some support has been found.
Friday S1L … Monday S4L if no flip.
Weekend news could drive markets either way.
Today Ftse S3H … early and late ‘h’
Friday S4L … Monday S3L if no flip.
Never give up, never surrender.
DOW: still assuming this wants to be a five wave decline. Based on the chart, wave 3 is usually 1.618*1 which gave a target of 19,414 or so. The Dow hit 19,000 then bounced sharply. It then tried for 19,000 again the next day and again bounced sharply. This leaves two ‘hammer bottom’ formations on the candlestick chart.
Given that the Dow has fallen an astonishing 10,000 points very quickly, the slight overshoot of 19,414 down to 19,000 is likely within the bounds of experimental error.
If so, I have to assume that we’ve reached wave 3 and a rally is due for wave 4. The minimum target is around 21,500, but it can go higher than that if it wants to.
Note the divergence in the RSI, but nothing in the MACD.
If a 4th and 5th want to form, we might see a gradual bounce for 4 and then perhaps a falling wedge down to the 17,000 area for 5, which will allow divergence to continue to build.
Naturally all of this is a guess.
GBPKRW: mostly in markets we can use logic and experience to try to predict an outcome. In normal markets, that is. Sometimes, however, markets do things that are completely unexpected (and cannot be explained).
For instance: during times of market stress the emerging market and peripheral currencies tend to take a hit and money flows into USD, GBP, EUR, JPY etc. The flight to quality. Logically thinking, one would expect this to be happening now (and it has, to a certain extent).
I’m an expat. I don’t own Pounds. I own USD, EUR, KRW, but not Pounds (well, apart from a small float in case one of my kids needs support). So I rarely look at GBP/KRW.
But this morning I looked, expecting KRW to have weakened against the Pound.
Here’s what I saw (see chart). Not what I was expecting.
The Pound has been weak recently. But a 10% drop against the Korean Won? Come on – that’s simply impossible. But not.
The weakness of the Pound is something else at the moment. I understand why it might weaken against the major currencies. But let’s face it – when it also starts going down like this against ‘risk off’ currencies, well that’s something else.
I expect they wanted it that way and will blame the virus.
I did hear a rumour that a big player had moved their
fortune from GBP into KRW. It was David ……..Never give up, never surrender.
I have a project which shows very bullish indications
for next week.Now how do I benefit from this.
I could buy at today’s low or wait and buy on monday.
I am not sure what I will do but I will do something.
Never give up, never surrender.
Today looks like S4L … QED Monday S3L with no flip.
I think it would be better to wait for Monday to see
exactly what we have got.IF we get a low late tonight, it’s only for the brave.
Never give up, never surrender.
“Additionally, the Nomura MD notes that Month- and Quarter- end will merit an enormous Pension Rebalance flow (buy Eq, sell Bonds), simply on account of the impossible performance spread btwn Bonds (AGG -3.0% QTD) and Stocks (S&P -25.4% QTD) on the period.
Estimates are for upwards of $120B to $200B of Stock index to “buy,” typically occurring over the final week of the period; as previously stated, “pension rebalances” only tend to matter (with regards to backtests which “confirm” the flows) when the performance spread is “extreme,” and the current Bond outperf vs Stocks QTD is 0.7%ile outcome since 1982!”
“Jupiter is now applying to its first of three conjunctions to Pluto on April 4. The second and third passage will take place on June 30 and November 12.
However, right before Jupiter conjoins Pluto on April 4, Mars will trigger all three planets involved in the 2020 “Capricorn Stellium.” That is, on March 20, Mars will conjunct Jupiter, followed by its conjunction to Pluto on March 23 and Saturn on March 31. Mars acts like a “trigger.” It can activate the new cycle when it conjoins the outer planets slightly before or after they meet. In this case, Mars activates Jupiter, Pluto, and Saturn March 20-31. Thus, there is a geocosmic reason to think that the recent trends in human activity may be readying to reverse, at least in the near-term.
There are other reasons to support this view, too. The second astrological condition signifying a change in collective consciousness and human activity relates to planets changing signs, known as an “ingress.” This is more pronounced when the ingress involves an outer planet. On March 21, Saturn (an outer planet) will temporarily leave Capricorn for Aquarius. Mars, the “trigger” planet, does the same on March 30. And on March 31, these two planets will conjoin one another in zero degrees of Aquarius, which is the same degree that the even greater 20-year conjunction between Jupiter and Saturn will occur on the winter solstice, December 21, 2020. We will get a preview of that dynamic means in the next two weeks.
As if this is not enough geocosmic activity symbolizing the possibility of a change in attitude, awareness, and trends, the Sun has just entered Aries, the spring equinox, on March 19. Next week, on March 24, the new moon (a conjunction between the Sun and Moon) in Aries will occur. Aries and the new moon are also symbolic of a “new season” and in this case, a new “celestial year.” The old celestial year, and the balsamic phase of Mars to Jupiter, Pluto, and Saturn, is ending.
The bottom line, as I view it from my understanding of the correlation of planetary cycles with cycles in human activity, is that the world may start to view this pandemic and the economic threat it represents, quite differently. It may indicate there is more clarity, more of a mass adjustment to this new reality and what it really means, less hysteria and panic, and perhaps a realization that it is not quite so terrifying as it has seemed since Mars entered Capricorn on February 16. It is interesting that China reported no new cases of COVID-19 at the end of last week. Incidentally, February 16 also coincided with the peak of the hysteria in China over this outbreak, as well as the midpoint of the all-time highs in several world equity markets, including the U.S. The all-time high in the DJIA was on February 12. In the S&P and NASDAQ futures, it was on February 20. In this geocosmic view, it is possible that the “peak of panic” in the U.S. and Europe could be happening right now, as these four major conjunctions take place during the same period that Mars and Saturn leave Capricorn (sign of worry, fear, and sense of loss) and enter Aquarius (sign of new discoveries and approaches towards solving existing problems).”
hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine
I’m interested in this drug which can be manufactured in large quantities by Roche of Switzerland. Apparently it has been used in China with some success. A Doctor in China said that this drug ‘cured’ 80-90% of early stage cases, but did not cure old people who had existing medical conditions. Interestingly, he also said that the drug ‘cured’ people in four days instead of the usual period of fourteen days.
Donald Trump mentioned this drug in his press conference yesterday and said he had ‘good feelings’ about it, but it wasn’t confirmed by his Chief Medical Advisor (who wants to see testing).
Still, no doubt they’ve shipped this drug to America (and other places) for emergency testing.
Need to keep an eye on this because the slightest sign of a drug being successful and equity markets are going to explode upwards.
If it can be shown that this drug is successful in 80-90% of the population, then all the lockdowns can cease, and only older people told to stay at home.
One tweet and everything can change…
My 2020 projects, one is timing and the other bull/bear
Monday through Friday indicated as bullish which is
rare and at odds with the virus situation.Interesting week for my analysis.
Never give up, never surrender.
Wow…the u.s. has just announced a lockdown for 70 million people around the most densely populated areas,such as california and new york.hard to see the market not opening limit down again really,how do you “price in” such things?
No position for me atm.
A limit down open monday could tempt me to dip the buy toe.
Never give up, never surrender.
Weekend Dow futures indicating down 500 to around 18,450.
My target was 19,414, with 19,000 an *acceptable* overshoot. I don’t have any numbers below 19,414.
Martin Armstrong has/had 19,000 as ‘line in the sand’. Nomura has 17,000 – 19,000 as market target.
SPX target is/was 2,250. Again, I don’t have any numbers below 2,250.
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