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Spring is here in England.
The sun has come out to play down here in the South West.
Never give up, never surrender.
I predicted that 2020 would be Credit Crunch II.
For a while now I thought I was wrong but signs are I may be right.
Never give up, never surrender.
Looks like a bounce of sorts could happen next week.
I would take great care as we may just set up a pattern
to come down even harder.Central Banks used up their silver bullets and have left
themselves with little in the rate cut locker.
This shows their actions after 2008 were flawed as they
continue to play the same old tune.Central Banks could goose the market up but they may
have to buy all the stocks and bonds to do so.We are in the do do !
Never give up, never surrender.
Signs of an early Spring also here in South Korea. Daily temperatures expected to be around 14 degrees C this coming week. It can get surprisingly cold here during the Winter, and I’ve experienced -17C in Seoul at which point a cup of coffee turns to ice very quickly.
Weekend news about the virus is very negative. IG weekend Dow shows down about 500 points, back to the 25,000 area. Will we see a drop to my target box around 24,550 Monday/Tuesday? As Cimac says – we might get a bounce – but this virus thing has the potential to destroy earnings (and markets), and anyone playing the long side bounce needs to be very clever indeed.
Let’s make a ‘guess’ that the Dow on monday is S2H
after spill down.So from the friday close we go down then up for pt3
and then down into the monday close.I am not going to bet that happens.
The only trade I would take is a long and short at 25000
with a plan to swing them out at 24500 and 25500Never give up, never surrender.
Markets seem to be anticipating some sort of Central Bank action to ease the economic impact of the virus. Problem with that is that most central banks have cut so much they have little ammunition left – particularly in Europe where rates are already negative. And I doubt that some minor cut in interest rates is going to repair the damage currently being suffered by the tourism industry – airlines, hotel and cruise ship operators are really being slammed.
The shocking news from Italy overnight – 500 new cases – and the proximity to Venezia and Milano must be rather worrying for the Italians as so much of Italy’s GDP is based on tourism (same with Spain and France).
Last couple of years Venezia has been ‘complaining’ about too many tourists and cruise ships even though the City takes the opportunity to fleece those tourists with the most expensive cups of coffee in the world. And just buying a beer in St Mark’s Square almost requires a mortgage application. In a rather bizarre ironic twist, if the virus spreads into Venezia the businesses in that City will discover what life will be like without any tourists at all…
Dow futures have been in a circa 25000 – 26000 range.
Never give up, never surrender.
Let’s make a ‘guess’ that the Dow on monday is S2H
after spill down.So from the friday close we go down then up for pt3
and then down into the monday close.Got the down1 then got the up2
and so we just need the down3Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 26000 … stop 26500 … limit 25000
I expect to walk down the stop later and get to b/e
when we get below 25900.Talk tuesday as this is still my 4 day weekend.
Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 26000 … stop 26500 … limit 25000
I expect to walk down the stop later and get to b/e
when we get below 25900.Talk tuesday as this is still my 4 day weekend.
This last part has been more work than I expected
and I must guard my earlier profits … hmmmNever give up, never surrender.
The way the Dow put in a late hod is more S2L
Need to see all of tuesday’s action for clarity.
Never give up, never surrender.
Dow didn’t quite get to my lower target but at least bottomed in the target box. I guessed that at some point Dow might try to bounce to overlap 27,000 where I have a possible A,B.
The decline was furious and I’ve seen a couple of commentators suggesting that it was a ‘five’. I can see how that might be the case. If it has been a five then a significant bear market is likely, as this was probably the first five making big wave 1. That remains to be seen.
For the rally I’m counting a likely three waves up not yet complete. The minimum target is around 26,850 (which will just about overlap the A,B) and C=A at 27,400.
cheers hatman
That is my target zone for my extended retrace trade.
Never give up, never surrender.
SPX: my long term chart published here several times suggested a fifth wave upwards to around 3,700 in the form of a rising wedge. I suggested that at some point the market would drop to overlap the area around 3,000 for wave ‘B’ of the wedge.
Here’s the original chart..
.. and here’s an updated chart. It all fits with the expected pattern but clearly this current decline has been very sharp. Perhaps too sharp and too fast. I’ll guess that if the wedge thing is valid we might need a bigger longer ABC as shown in green. Perhaps we’ll get the three wave decline shown with the C wave taking much longer than this initial decline. After a few months perhaps a vaccine will be available, interest rates have been lowered, and we’ll be off to the races again.
All pure conjecture of course…
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