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I would short Dow 28000 or long Dow 27000 but I am
not really happy to have any position in between.My timing project indicates bullish after 22:00
My price project had tue / wed as the most bearish
days this week. Thu / fri are not bullish but they
do show less negativity than mid week.On balance I have to trust these projects even
though I stress they are really 2020 items.Never give up, never surrender.
SPX mega dealer Gamma at 3,100. They will surely want to pull it up there at some point.
Well, they got their wish/plan.
DOW: I’ve updated my ‘rising wedge’ chart (attached). There are actually three different possibilities here, and I’m showing the one that to me makes the most sense. The alternatives have targets slightly higher in the 29,200/29,800 area.
In a wedge the next wave upwards cannot be shorter than the first wave (obviously). But that means the current wave downwards (if that is what it is) can go lower than 27,000 and actually go all the way to fill the gap at 26,700 (if it wants to). That still allows the next wave upwards to be shorter.
There has to be good divergence in this wedge thing, and the MACD needs to come lower. That needs price or time, or both.
The Bradley Nov 30 caught the high. The next Bradley is Dec 20. In the absence of any other guides, I suppose one should have that Dec 20 area as a possible low.
GBPUSD: the Pound continued to rise and is now above 1.31. Target for W3 is the 1.32 area, probably to coincide with the election. Likely better to travel than to arrive.
I was long and made good money, but failed to stay the course. I took my profits too early, even though all my work suggested 1.32. It reminds me of what Jesse Livermore said – ” one of the biggest mistakes is not staying the course and profiting from the big move”. True to his suggestion, I sold out too early and now feel like a mug.
Okay, I made money. But note to self – learn to stay the course, and don’t try to be too clever.
You made good money so should be very happy.
We try to find the trader within ourselves and you seem
to have done that. Part of your inner trader is caution
and so you would not be in at the start or the end of
a move. Nothing wrong with that, ‘happy nibble’.Never give up, never surrender.
No positions for me atm.
I will use this time to try and predict the ‘time window’
for the next decent move for the Dow etc.
Currently it looks like, down, next week, tue / wed, is
my best guess but I will fine tune that later this week.Never give up, never surrender.
The STD lean for the Dow is S2L.
Futures playing ping pong either side of 27700.
US data at 13:30 gmt and when cash opens expect
north of 27700 and then south for pt3 and then
a close above 27700 … seems likely.NFP friday could cause a more dramatic day.
Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 27766 … stop tba … limit tba
Although I think a ‘normal’ S2L will be positive there
is a good chance that pt3 will be 27700 or lower
for +50pts or more.Never give up, never surrender.
Hmmm … Dow S2L ‘normal’ closes near the hod
and often is the hod.My timing project does not support that result.
Once again I will gain very valuable insights
regardless of the last hour of Dow cash.Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 27766 … stop tba … limit tba
Although I think a ‘normal’ S2L will be positive there
is a good chance that pt3 will be 27700 or lower
for +50pts or more.No problem with 50 and 75 and 100
Never give up, never surrender.
Dow: need to be careful here – if it wants to, the Dow can/might suddenly shoot upwards to the 28,000 area over the next two to three trading days.
I believe today is ‘day 4’. We get 3 and 4 again on Monday, Tuesday.
Today is S3L
We may get spill up to complete thursday’s S2L.
Or some hocus pocus around NFP before cash opens.
Never give up, never surrender.
No position atm.
Most likely wait until monday and try
and catch the mid week drop.Never give up, never surrender.
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