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Small short Dow at 25830 … stop 27000 … limit 25200
Just cover in case things do not run as per my Dow model.
I will be active in the event profits are available today.
Closed at 25800 … +30pts to add to monday’s pathetic +50pts.
I am tempted to let this phase ride out and take a mini break.
Never give up, never surrender.
I will leave an entry order just in case we ride up the monday candle.
Small short Dow at 26500 … stop 30000 … limit 20000
That would keep me in the game.
Never give up, never surrender.
On the Dow there seems to be a support line around 25750 that could act as the neckline of an inverted head and shoulders base of sorts. Bit scrappy but at least it’s an idea.
It might want to have a look at that 25750 later. Or not…
I’m not in the market on the long side, unfortunately. Although I correctly called the ‘head fake’ drop in the Far East I preferred to wait for confirmation that the cash market would open up above 2830. Of course the market has gone shooting upwards without me.
But that’s okay. The chart work I did over the weekend identifying that 2830 low shows me that making the effort gets results (and is satisfying).
There will be other opportunities.
Mad volatility..shades of 10-12 years ago.relentless drops followed by 24 hour 100 handle rebounds.not for the faint hearted lol
On the Dow there seems to be a support line around 25750 that could act as the neckline of an inverted head and shoulders base of sorts. Bit scrappy but at least it’s an idea. It might want to have a look at that 25750 later. Or not…
There you go…
DOW: the Dow completed an exact ABC from the low to 25950. Now returning to overlap wave B of the ABC at 25750/65. In order to gather momentum for an attack at 26200/50 it might need to go sideways forming some sort of triangle thing. It can go lower first if it wants to, or the drop from 25950 might be the first part of the triangle. Time will tell.
Small short Dow at 26000 … stop 30000 … limit 20000 ( x 2 )
I really wanted 26500 but this will do for now and it does
give me a trade IF we take a dive to re visit the futures
low towards 25000Never give up, never surrender.
My tentative view is that the early Dow rally was a
spill up to complete S4H from monday.So the odds are today is S1L (if no flip) and we should
get a late ‘l’ or spill down on wednesday.To guard against some overnight futures dive I will set
my limit to a more modest 25200 & 25300Never give up, never surrender.
We must also be aware that those rebel futures may try
the reverse and go for Dow 26500, whilst we sleep !Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 26000 … stop 30000 … limit 20000 ( x 2 )
I really wanted 26500 but this will do for now and it does
give me a trade IF we take a dive to re visit the futures
low towards 25000Closed both at 25940 for +60pts x 2
Never give up, never surrender.
” Last week Nomura’s quant team cautioned that as a result of surging economic uncertainty, it anticipated the loss of the “buying support it has been getting from macro-oriented funds and longer-term investors” and the result would be systematic selling pressure which “could gain the upper hand for a while.”
“This, as Charlie McElligott detailed, is precisely what happened on Monday when the S&P dipped below key CTA selling thresholds, as we discussed yesterday in “Here Comes The “Extreme Negative Gamma” Selling Avalanche” which materialized almost instantly, sending the S&P on its biggest daily drop of 2019″
“But while Nomura should be commended for correctly predicting the dramatic market plunge that followed Thursday’s chaos, even if it did not necessarily anticipate the catalysts that caused it, what is more concerning is what Nomura sees happening next, namely that the “arrival of first volatility spike sets up the possibility of another one in late August or early September.”
“In laying out the sequence of events, the Nomura quants predict that once the first wave of volatility has passed, global equity markets are likely to experience a spontaneous rebound. Contributing factors to such a relief rally could include expectations for a substantial rate cut by the Fed at the September FOMC meeting and stock purchases made by short-term contrarian investors.”
“However, Nomura expects any near-term rally to be no more than a head fake, and thinks that any such rally would be best treated as an opportunity to sell in preparation for the second wave of volatility that the bank expects will arrive in late August or early September. Worse, Takada warns that “the second wave may well hit harder than the first, like an aftershock that eclipses the initial earthquake. At this point, we think it would be a mistake to dismiss the possibility of a Lehman-like shock as a mere tail risk.”
Cheers hatman
I would like a rally into late August / early September
a la 1987Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 26000 … stop 30000 … limit 18000
Small short Dow at 26000 … stop 30000 … limit 25600
Trying to cover two scenarios here and also keeping in
mind we are likely to see a short stops run before we
get the next big dipper.Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 26000 … stop 30000 … limit 18000
Small short Dow at 26000 … stop 30000 … limit 25600
Trying to cover two scenarios here and also keeping in
mind we are likely to see a short stops run before we
get the next big dipper.Closed both at 25840 … +160 x 2
Never give up, never surrender.
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