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SPX: I’ve double checked my numbers and the only logical route I can see is 2860 followed by a bounce to around 2880 then a last gasp drop to 2830.
If all this comes to pass then after 2830 there is a high probability of SPX rallying to try to test the underside of 2960 key resistance (no guarantee of course, and any rally can easily fall short of this target).
Small long Dow at 25900
I have a bounce from a Dow ‘l’ late today or early tuesday.
I have to back my own model with my own money.
No advice intended.
Never give up, never surrender.
SPX: we got to the 2860 then had a small bounce to near 2880 as expected. That very small bounce might be the complete 4th wave of this move.
Now the market seems to be trying for 2830 but at a slower pace. It *might* take the form of a descending wedge.
On the minute-by-minute chart there’s good divergence, with the momentum low being at 2860 as one would expect in a five wave move.
Small long Dow at 25690 ( x 2 )
Net short 25760 ( 25900 25690 25690 )
Don’t do this at home !
Never give up, never surrender.
Small long Dow at 25690 ( x 2 )
Net long 25760 ( 25900 25690 25690 )
Don’t do this at home !
Never give up, never surrender.
Small long Dow at 25690 ( x 2 )
Net long 25760 ( 25900 25690 25690 )
Don’t do this at home !
Stop at 25000
Never give up, never surrender.
Small long Dow at 25690 ( x 2 )
Net long 25760 ( 25900 25690 25690 )
Don’t do this at home !
Closed at 25760 for a net b/e
Rather not run this overnight.
Never give up, never surrender.
Closed at 25760 for a net b/e
Rather not run this overnight.
Wow … that was a good move !
Never give up, never surrender.
SPX: I have two valid counts, both of which have a final target of 2830.
On the chart the brown count has a drop to 2945 then a very small B wave wriggling around that important support/resistance line of 2960. From there a five wave 1.618 drop equals 2830.
The blue count has wave A at 2915 followed by a more distinct (and acceptable) B wave. The subsequent drop to 2830 is an exact C=A.
The market overshot the 2830 target by 8 points, but given the size of the overall move this is likely acceptable.
After 2830 (or 2822 if you prefer) the market pulled off a very nice strong rally, suggesting that 2830 (or 2822) is a valid low.
If so, wave ‘A’ downwards is complete and wave ‘B’ should rise to at least try to overlap the lower wave ‘a’ at 2910.
Here in the Far East this morning the futures have taken another smack with SPX getting as low as 2780. If it stays down here my counts are invalidated. However I have a sneaky suspicion that this drop is a ‘trap’ and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the market back above 2830 by the time SPX cash opens today.
I don’t have any logical counts below 2830 which is basically no-man’s land.
SPX: let’s suppose my chart is correct and 2822/30 area marks the low for this move in the cash market. That would be wave A down in the bigger picture.
Looking at the daily chart there’s no support or resistance in that area. The most obvious line of support is the December low at 2730. That’s the logical target to have in mind (but the market might have other plans of course).
Anyhow, the decline so far is 206 points. For a C=A move to 2730 we can work backwards and project a B wave rally to (2730 + 206) giving a target of 2936.
A 0.618 retrace of the drop gives 2949. 2936 and 2949 are very close together and might make a valid target area.
At the same time such a move would close the open gap at 2910.
Overnight the betting for another Fed interest rate cut has intensified, so a rally might be prompted (as usual) by the market looking forward to interest rate cuts.
All speculation of course. I want to see if the futures can regain 2930 for the cash market open – if so then perhaps all of this is a plan.
If / when the Dow regains 26000 I will be looking
for my previous short entry at 26500 where next
time I plan to grab more than the +50pts !So far my Dow model of a ‘l’ either monday or
tuesday is in play and even futures did not
break my 25000 sand line.Never give up, never surrender.
Trading here in the Far East, SPX futures have regained the 2830 area. Let’s see if it can be sustained for the cash open.
DOW: using the same two route calculations as SPX I get targets of 25604 and 25470. It stopped right in the middle of those targets. Again, given the size of the drop, the few points inaccuracy is likely acceptable as ’rounding error’.
I fall this is correct, the Dow should now try to rally to overlap wave ‘A’ in the 26300 area. It’s a tall order of course, but given the speed of the fall perhaps it can whiplash back upwards.
That’s good hatman
With a small relative tolerance, bearing in mind the size of
the moves, our analysis is on the same page, for the Dow.Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 25830 … stop 27000 … limit 25200
Just cover in case things do not run as per my Dow model.
I will be active in the event profits are available today.
Never give up, never surrender.
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