Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
thanks for the concern chaps , actually i had a stroke in early March st ill trying to recover my doctor says i should drinmuch mor alcoholgood doc tor i reckon cheers chaps good t o be back
watch that blood pressure
I recently read a survey of feedback from the public regarding what they thought of the stock market currently. Despite the market being close to all-time highs, it seems that people are skeptical of this bull market, perhaps the bitter memories of 2008 are still to close for comfort.In short, I see evidence everywhere today of indecision in markets, a ‘wait and see’ attitude is prevalent.
So today let’s try to make sense of this, and look at the evidence for what lays ahead? Will this market boom or bust…?
The bond market (government bonds, where governments invite investors to lend money to the government) is a larger and supposedly more sophisticated market than the stock market, so I like to use this as a compass at times like this.
The chart of TLT below:
It seems TLT has stopped falling. It formed a triple bottom, leveled off, and this year has broken up above the moving average (curvy blue line). And this in the face of The Fed buying less of the government bonds! So investors seem to be buying government bonds for safety, or at least to keep some powder dry.
Next exhibit, the retail sector:
Main St. is looking healthier, although retail has leveled off for now. The big question is one you could answer yourself: is the consumer closing their wallets or was it just the bad weather? Answer this question correctly and bet up or down on a stock like Amazon (in fact, did the bad weather<b> especially</b> help Amazon as shoppers had to order online instead of driving to a mall?? You tell me…)
So what’s the bullish case? As Adam Woods said on this site this week, the US economy has never been so large, and valuations are not unreasonable. The Fed is still pumping money into the market, despite them slowing it down a little. That’s a good fundamental case to make.
And then there’s the technical case. Here’s the latest long term chart of the S+P:
That is a definite uptrend. A technical analyst, after seeing this chart, wouldn’t dream of betting against this market. But clearly, many people ignore the charts…
The psychological case is also compelling for the bullish camp. Bull markets don’t end with a whimper, they end with a bang. That’s to say, bull markets don’t end with the herd being skeptical and cautious, they end when the herd is euphoric. They end when the last bear has been hunted down and shot. This has been and is a VERY powerful bull market, so it’s reasonable to expect to see an equally powerful conclusion to it, and this isn’t it.
It’s the very fact that we’re seeing hesitation and skepticism out there that makes me more inclined to believe in this bull market. The bull continues to do a great job of taking as few people along for the ride as possible.
Best,
Jim.
</div>
<table id=”ecxcontent_LETTER.BLOCK3″ style=”width: 100%;” border=”0″ cellspacing=”0″ cellpadding=”15″>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td rowspan=”1″ colspan=”1″ align=”left”><b>Dear Desmond,</b></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table id=”ecxcontent_LETTER.BLOCK11″ style=”width: 100%;” border=”0″ cellspacing=”0″ cellpadding=”15″>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td rowspan=”1″ colspan=”1″ align=”left”>
<div>
<div>There is a raging battle between the bulls and the bears on the Internet. On Twitter and trading forums the bulls are winning. Not surprising, the stock market has been rising for five years. Each time there is a pullback the stock market rallies to new highs. This pattern has been repeating itself for so long that the bulls are becoming over-confident and arrogant, rather than argue any valid bullish logic their recourse is to ridicule and scorn the bears instead.
Personally I don’t think the bulls should resort to ridicule, they should be listening as the bears do have a point. In fact there is no wrong or right to be a bull or a bear, remember the old stock market saying “Bulls make money, Bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered!” The key is your time horizon. Are you bullish or bearish intraday, short term or long term? When you segment investors by time horizon everybody is right and no one is wrong, so it is illogical for the bulls to tease and laugh at the bears, this merely serves to detract from the possibility that the bears will eventually be proven right and this kind of closed mindedness is a fine example of a contrarian indicator.
My view is that the bears will have their day in the long-term while the bulls will continue do well in the short-term. Why? Because we are in a transition period that is characterised by:
* Completed Elliott wave pattern. The five-wave pattern on the long term chart is ominous. Why? Because it could be the final impulse wave within an upward double zigzag pattern from the 2009 low. The top of wave (5) would coincide with the 2000 high [6950] and inside wave (5) is a five-wave expanding diagonal triangle which is a bearish pattern.
* Extended Bull market in its fifth year. Bull markets normally last two years on average.
* First degree extreme in bullish sentiment. This condition occurs at major market tops.
* Fed tapering asset purchases
* Stalling global economic recovery
</div>
</div>
This transition will lead to the next bear market and because the bull market is already five-years old the next bear market will last two years or more. Therefore the long-term bearish point is valid and not to be held in contempt. If you are a long-term investor it would be prudent to step aside or protect your portfolio for a major decline. What I cannot predict is when the next bear market will start – it could follow in a month or two or six or more. These things are never easy to predict but the evidence towards a market top is growing ever stronger.
In the meantime the bullish short-term trade continues to thrive and is well supported each time the market drops by the extreme in bullish sentiment. If you look at the recent rallies, after every recent correction follows a powerful move propelled from the lows due to the high proportion of bulls prepared to buy. Do not be afraid of each dip, your task is to buy the dips but take the short-term profits after each rally to new high. You want to be out at new highs in case the market turns down and the inevitable bear market commences.TL</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>Susan Miller has important news for us. “April’s so scary that I’m giving classes on it,” she says, tracing a series of points on her impossibly complicated astrology chart. “Look, we have a perfect square on 15 April – 15 April! You’ve got Jupiter at 12, and Uranus at 13, and Pluto at 13, and Mars at 16 – but wait! It’s going to get a little bit worse.” She furrows her brow while she studies the chart. “Look at 29 April!” I look. “Some people feel the stock market is…” She pauses for such a long beat that I offer to complete her sentence: “…going to crash?” She shakes her head. “This is even worse – we’ve not had this since the American Revolution.”
Maybe this is it?
Dear Wall Street Daily Nation,
When I find worthwhile opportunities from other publishers with obvious merit, I pass them along. Below you’ll find one such offer from our colleagues at The Sovereign Society. Please give it careful consideration. – Robert Williams
* * *
What you are about to see is based on information obtained from a little-known government document called FT900.
It’s published by a non-descript Federal office located at 1401 Constitution Avenue in Washington, D.C., less than one mile from the White House.
The following presentation not only reveals the contents of this document, but it walks you through the exact timeline of how and when this 9/11 event is scheduled to occur…
Just like 9/11 had a lasting impact on our society, this event will also reshape America… in a different, but equally dramatic way.
It will swipe trillions off markets and retirement accounts everywhere, and destroy the way of life of millions of unprepared Americans.
But it will also trigger what promises to be the biggest wealth transfer in the history of our nation…
But you only have until April 24th to take all the necessary steps to protect yourself and your family.
In the following newly released video you will learn how… Just click here to view it, before it’s too late.
