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DOW: it broke decisively through the 21 day average and immediately headed for support at the 50 day. The target for c=a was 23,000 exactly. It got to 23,100. That might be enough, or it might try for one last wiggle lower.
This seems to complete (or almost) wave ‘a’ from the top. If so, we now need to see a ‘b’ wave develop which might need several days. It can be a straight bounce or (more likely) a sideways trading range.
Note the potential upwards sloping head and shoulders which targets the overlap.
Probably most of the fun for ‘wave a’ has completed, and the sideways ‘wave b’ coming up is likely to be much more boring and difficult, during which it might try to overlap 23,400.
NYA: I’ve looked at DJI, SPX and NYA. In each case these indices have (so far) failed to reach c=a. On the other hand they are all showing what *might* be a sharp three wave decline from yesterday, with c=0.618 in each case.
This leads me to the suggestion that for this sideways ‘B’ wave the markets *might* be trying for a descending triangle in each case (see chart).
NYA hit the 50 day average (which is still falling). This is important support.
It fell decisively through the 21 day (which is now curling over). It *might* try the underside of that average, and it can do that as the next part of a triangle (again, see chart).
This triangle idea is a *guess* at the moment, simply based on the fact that none of the indices have completed a clean c=a (which suggests something else is happening).
NDX: the shape in NDX is different from the main indices due to it having reached a new high. Nonetheless I see a clean abc decline from the top which I’m marking as wave ‘A’ complete. It might not be – it can fiddle then decline again for a larger wave ‘A’, but for the moment I’m marking it as complete.
If so, a ‘B’ wave is due which *might* try to overlap the action at 9,060 (and might need several days to do so).
NDX: on the daily chart one can see clearly the downwards break from the wave 3 top. The target for wave 4 is 8,741.
It’s very likely that wave ‘a’ of an abc decline has completed.
If we add the size of wave ‘a’ to the target at 8,741 we get a potential ‘b’ wave rally target up at 9,200 or so. That’s quite a sizeable rally and might need several days to complete.
If NDX declines further in the short term then this suggested route is invalidated and something else is going on. But for the moment I’m assuming wave ‘a’ is complete and for the next several days (perhaps a week) some sort of ‘b’ wave thing will develop.
Thanks hatman … the NDX does look the cleaner pattern.
Let’s see if Merlin get’s some sort of rally.
My stuff just indicates thursday and friday as more
neutral than tuesday / wednesday.Never give up, never surrender.
Cheers Hatman.
Today I am back to having no real bias. I will trade TOD’s and price
I have just longed 2812.4 looking for a move up for her (very short term intraday stuff only at this stage)
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
My 2020 Bull/Bear Project got the right idea for Tuesday and Wednesday
having a Bear indication. Atm I cannot look too far forward but
there is not another Bear indicator day this week or even
early next week. Make of it what you will.Never give up, never surrender.
My 2020 Bull/Bear Project got the right idea for Tuesday and Wednesday
having a Bear indication. Atm I cannot look too far forward but
there is not another Bear indicator day this week or even
early next week. Make of it what you will.There is no Bull indication either in that time frame.
Best day for the bulls is monday.
Never give up, never surrender.
Ftse S3L indicated by pt5 ‘l’
Lower low than wednesday.
Dax may follow after it chokes on German data at 9am
Never give up, never surrender.
Today S3L … if ‘normal’ stocks find a low.
Friday S4H … if ‘normal’ stocks rise.
Monday S3H (no flip) … if ‘normal’ rise continues.
Lot of ifs … has a fair chance.
No open trades and would be happy to keep this week’s profits
which have had a gradual rise day on day this week.Never give up, never surrender.
It is definitely tougher today Chris.
Does it go further than we think it will (often does).
As I say, I am a little decided here for today. It is 50/590 for me, but I do feel there may good good swings both ways and that is what I want to try and be on. If I make some points, that is all that matters.
SOme days are better with no bias and just go with the flow, and today is one of those days.
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
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