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Today S3L … if ‘normal’ stocks find a low.
Friday S4H … if ‘normal’ stocks rise.
Monday S3H (no flip) … if ‘normal’ rise continues.
Dow Cycle Day 1 … the book trader finds a low to buy.
This could just work.
Never give up, never surrender.
IF that were to work we could see some sort of rally
as shown on Merlin’s latest.Also hatman mentioned NAS 9200 … seems like a stretch but possible.
Never give up, never surrender.
Its tough here. Does it rally into close or does it fall in to close?
I am guessing rally, but as it is a guess, I will close the 2812.4 and 2796.4 long here for 20 and 38 points respectively.
Incredibly profitable day and flat after a very long time.
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Plan your trade, trade your plan!
Its tough here. Does it rally into close or does it fall in to close? I am guessing rally, but as it is a guess, I will close the 2812.4 and 2796.4 long here for 20 and 38 points respectively. Incredibly profitable day and flat after a very long time. .
Wow it put on another 25 points after this into close. IncrediBULL. 90 point rally off the lows.
Problem is it was just a guess 😆
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
SPX: it continued down slightly and reached the point at 2,767 where it completed an exact abc with c=a. Also, the size of the decline has now been greater than the first ‘wave a’. That makes the bigger count rather confused.
Still, in the short term we’ve got a completed abc down. Once it touched that c=a at 2,767 it shot upwards and completed an overlap of ‘wave’a’.
I have to assume that another ‘b’ wave is trying to form, and has already completed the overlap.
It remains the case that in the bigger picture an overlap of 2,640 would provide the perfect pattern for this ‘B’ wave sideways correction.
DOW: the Dow clearly doesn’t like life below the 50 day moving average, as is evident on this chart.
Like SPX the pattern is rather confusing because this latest decline has exceeded the first ‘wave a’ (or what I imagine was wave ‘a’).
The target remains an overlap of 22,500 but I think it seems clear that the Dow isn’t going to like trading below the 50 day.
The 50 day is still falling gently, and at the current rate of decline will meet the 22,500 target area in the next four or five trading days.
The head and shoulders neckline AND the 21 day average are both in the 23,800 area. Dow *might* try to test the underside of those in the next few days before declining again towards the target.
NDX: I’m counting the decline from the top as a completed abc. It isn’t perfect because wave ‘c’ is slightly longer than wave ‘a’. But nothing else makes any sense.
Note that as soon as it completed the abc, NDX shot upwards to overlap wave ‘a’.
From this point there are two options. The target for the bigger wave 4 is 8,741. We can add wave ‘a’ to that and get a maximum ‘b’ wave rally target of around 9,200. OR, NDX can trade sideways in a triangle with an apex around 9,040 and then decline in a c=0.618.
BRADLEY: the three wave decline shown on the Bradley chart seems to be accurate at the moment. We got wave ‘a’ down starting roughly around May 10 (allowing for couple days either side).
The pattern shows a slight wiggle upwards between May 18 and 20 – that’s Monday thru Wednesday next week. Then there’s another decline.
The Bradley chart makes sense to me – we’ve had wave ‘a’, now developing wave ‘b’ which might need a few days, then we get wave ‘c’.
Of course the Bradley is often complete nonsense so take with a large pinch of salt.
That NDX 9200 zone now looks more likely but I will
take today off for exercise and shopping.Monday could be an important mini x roads if this
rally continues at this pace.Fridays are the worst day to take a loss as traders
have to carry that over the weekend. Take extra care.Never give up, never surrender.
Well something has just spooked the markets.
It was quite strong this morning (considering yesterday’s rise). However now it is selling off.
Support is around here at 2820/3 ish on ES. Below is 2800 ish again.
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
Perhaps this morning was a b wave retrace with c up to start..maybe already started.am long from 2830.shall see how it turns out.just doesnt feel like its ready to crash
Good luck Houd.
I shorted a little SPX this morning and closed too early, made some points.
Not really sure how they will play this today, hence staying out.
If I get a TOD pop up or see it may target today’s gap on ES at 2846.75, then I will be tempted into a trade.
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
Hi,
Just joined and interested in learning to plan trades, but more importantly learning risk management. Full time carer for my father so prefer swing trades as not always at my computer. Risk management as always been my weak point so interested in looking to sharpen that side up.
Good day all
Moh
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