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Happy Easter to all kpaders and their families 🙂
Never give up, never surrender.
I started this a day early to allow kpaders to drop in
and share their views on where markets are atm.If markets continue this rally we are in danger of getting
to an old chestnut ” Sell in May and go away”.Let’s hope we can go away by then else it will have to be,
“Sell in May and stay indoors”Never give up, never surrender.
On thursday I was looking for the Dow cash to reach 24000
which it did do but I would have been happier if it had
closed at or very near the hod.That is what I will be looking for on monday.
I have no trades open atm.
Never give up, never surrender.
This seems to make sense:
This rally is not about fundamentals. Nouriel Roubini says second quarter GDP could be -40%. Can’t digest that number ! This rally is about bailing out the trapped funds a.k.a the HODLers. When we hit some serious resistances, expect massive overhead selling from these funds.Jeff For Monday
remove tyeh thre “OOO”
https:OOO//www.youtube.com/watch?v=4f_THftemjg
Small droplets of rain turn into Rivers, Streams and Mighty Oceans
SPX:Â The rising wedge possibility *might* no longer be valid because SPX needs to decline to overlap 2,640 and unless that happens very quickly it won’t be possible to create the ‘rising wedge’ shape.
The alternative is that this ‘C wave’ (if that is what it is) is itself a rising wedge. C=A at 2,900, so we got ‘A’, ‘B’ now perhaps being followed by rising wedge ‘C’. This is shown as the blue line on the chart.
The RSI is in the danger zone for a bear market. It needs to decline below 50 soon.
The daily MACD is still rising towards the zero line.
Note that 2,900 is *critical*. If the market punches above that level with strength, then something more bullish is in play.
SPX: in the shorter term I am counting a ‘five up’ not yet complete from the recent 2,660 low. If so, the pattern targets the 2,840/5 area and might be reached Monday but more likely Tuesday.
SPX SHORT CAUTION: over the weekend I saw an analysis by someone who is counting a ‘five up’ sequence from the 2,200 low, and suggesting that this could produce a new ATH. Intrigued by this, I went back to the low and had a look at the patterns from a bullish perspective. I’ve been counting it all as threes, but I can see why/how someone can see fives.
If it IS a five wave thing, we’ve had waves 1 and 2 and have now entered wave three. The 2,840/5 shown on my short term as a target then becomes wave (i) 0f iii of 3. the overall pattern targets 3,480 (just about a double top with the ATH).
With everything going on in the world it seems impossible that this can happen. Then again, perhaps the trillions being thrown around just create another bubble situation.
This post and chart is just a note of caution for those planning to be short in any size. It seems to me that SPX 2,900 is the critical point. If the market blasts upwards through 2,900 then all my ‘threes’ counts are invalid and this five wave structure becomes the most likely option.
Yes, a strange world.
… and just to add to the madness, here’s a reminder of the Bradley chart for 2020…
… notice the ‘five up’.
Of course the Bradley is mostly complete nonsense. But just sometimes it can be supremely accurate.
I’m posting the ‘five up’ chart and the Bradley just as an observation. Logically, with economic growth plunging, unemployment surging, talk of recession, depression etc, this market should be looking lower, probably to at least a retest and likely to 1,800 or lower. That would be the logical plan. However, strange things happen..
Not a prediction, just an observation.
Yes, we could have had ‘a’ as a three to march lows and then
another ( tepid speak big arse ) ‘b’ as a five to aths / dt.Worth noting that as a possible … thanks hatman
Never give up, never surrender.
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Never give up, never surrender.
Rough guide …. looking at a weekly futures chart we are
above the 0.5 retrace for Dow & sp500A run higher to 0.618 would give roughly
Dow above 25200
sp500 above 2930IF this is a retrace before a fall to below march lows.
But as hatman has posted a run that high would blow away the
option of this move being a 4th wave with a 5th to come.
It would have to be a 5 wave move to new ath or d/t.Never give up, never surrender.
Returning to hatman’s chart there may be a trade
which I will try …Short the top of (i) of 3 and hold
then
Long the bottom of (ii) of 3 and holdThen either take the difference or close one
or the other when we know what is going on.Never give up, never surrender.
SPX: if this is the ‘five up’ I’ve prepared *this* chart that maps the possible route using the usual fib ratios. The top target is 3,351, which is just about a ‘double top’.
In the shorter term, note how the low at 2,460 was just about at the 0.236, which is what one would expect and *suggests* the ‘five up’ is in play.
Also the ‘i’ at 2,760 is just about at the 0.382 of ‘wave iii of 3’.
All of this must just be coincidence of course, but the shorts should be aware of it.
The Fed and Trump seem to believe that their success is based on stock and asset prices. Nothing to do with the underlying economy. They will ‘do anything’ to get stock prices higher. Eventually they will fail (like Japan), but we might need the ‘double top’ before the long term decline.
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