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Let’s not forget hatman’s astro post
Monday 28th Sept to Monday 19th October
Repeat of some astro positions as they were for the March low
Never give up, never surrender.
“The steepest and most prolonged decline since the pandemic lows of March 16-23, 2020, continued last week. It is not surprising since the transit of Mars retrograde, in late Aries, is making a waxing square aspect (first quarter cycle) to the Capricorn Stellium now through October 19. The panic low of March 2020 happened when Mars was conjoining these three planets. The conjunction represents the beginning
of a cycle. The first quarter cycle (waxing square) usually represents a testing or a re-visit to the themes that were present at the start of the cycle.”“The belly of the cosmic hurricane now begins. And at this very moment we are entering the center of the cosmic storm. Batten down the hatches and focus on protection of your finances, health, and general wellbeing for the next 3 weeks as Mars will form its waxing square to Saturn (September 29), Pluto (October
9), and Jupiter (October 19). This challenging period begins with Saturn turning direct this Monday, September 28, which is a powerful Level 1 geocosmic correlation to primary or greater cycles within an orb of 9 trading days (70% rate of frequency). Saturn’s nature can be repressive, giving rise to anxiety and fears. Mars squares this stationary Saturn the next day, September 29, and has an even stronger
geocosmic correlation of 80% to primary cycles within an orb of 11 trading days. Mars/Saturn also represent periods of exhaustion.”SPX: with the sharp rally Friday that penetrated upwards through the upper declining trendline, I have to assume that (somehow) wave ‘A’ down completed and we are now in ‘B’ up. If so, the wave low was at 3,210 and coincides with the target low areas for DOW and COMP.
What happens next?
Here is an interesting chart that might be coincidence or not.
We know that SPX has a tendency to touch the 200 MA in corrective periods, and it would be logical to assume it wants to do that again. It also is attracted to the 50 MA and didn’t go back to test the underside of that.
Here’s the thing: if we take 0.618 of ‘wave A’ and deduct it from the 50 MA, we get EXACTLY the 200 MA. Strange.
This *might* be suggesting that SPX rallies in wave B to the 50 MA at 3,350 and then enters wave C for a 0.618 decline to hit the 200 MA.
Not a prediction, just an observation with numbers that are uncannily accurate.
SPX: in the shorter term I haven’t a clue what’s going on!
It might have been a completed falling wedge but with a truncated final wave down. I think that’s a stretch of the imagination.
Alternatively it might have been a five wave decline down to 3,31o. It’s a bit scrappy.
Whatever, it’s jumped up through the falling trendline and that says something.
As a result of all this mess I cannot see a clear route upwards at the moment.
My plan here is to do nothing (!) and wait to see what develops.
This has been one of my best trading weeks because my
plan was to sell Dow 27500 and I did and followed
that down to Dow 26600 and then switched long.Flat now because at circa Dow 27000 I can’t convince
myself to risk a trade.A relaxing weekend is now most welcome 🙂
Never give up, never surrender.
NASDAQ COMP: like the other indices I can see how/why the COMP rallied strongly from 10,550. And, like the others, I’m penciling in wave ‘A’ down complete.
Another strange set of numbers here.
We can see that the 50 MA has given strong resistance recently, and the 200 MA lies below at 9,500.
Thing is – the distance between the 50 and 200 is EXACTLY the same size as ‘wave A down’. Again, like SPX, this suggests another test of the 50 from below and then a possible collapse to the 200.
Might all just be nonsense and coincidence, but worth keeping at the back of one’s mind.
Nice one David.
This is the scenario I have been following for the 3100 target area.
Let’s see. I feel Friday was a reset. However in this liquidity driven market as you say, we need to watch out for a rally out if a low.
For now I stick to my plan.
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
BRADLEY: as we know the Bradley is more often than not a complete load of nonsense.
However, for this year it did at least suggest a strong market in the first half, a peak in the summer, then weakness afterwards. The dates in April and August were well off the mark, but one can argue that the overall shape was correct.
We’ve just passed a Bradley date on Sept 23, expected to be a short term low. That was last Wednesday. The actual lows were Tursday/Friday, so allowing for the ‘couple days either side’ rule it’s possible to argue that the Bradley nailed the low.
The next date is Sept 28 – that’s Monday, perhaps Tuesday morning.
This is suggesting that if we get the rallies back to the 50 MA it might be over quite quickly.
Again, take with a pinch of salt because this Bradley stuff is incredibly unreliable.
Taking the UK as an example we have students returning
and spreading covid19, same in schools.App which was not tested … from clown central.
Debt spiral.
If the markets adjusted down in March then they
should do the same again now.Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 27550 … stop 29000 … limit 26600 ( x 2 )
I will risk the profits from the last time we were here.
Time … here to 19th October.
I will not be trading any more in this 3 week window
unless my stop or limit is hit.Never give up, never surrender.
S4L … but you will not see this until the
US close or spill down into tuesday 😉Never give up, never surrender.
The situation in the UK is tragic with so many missed
chances and clowning around.I will say here and now that our leaders are close
to losing the support of the silent majority,
which is required to govern a nation.I bet that in England there will be a relaxing of
the rules to allow families to mix at Christmas.I have a decent bet on this 😉
Never give up, never surrender.
This rise is very sharp – something that is not usually associated with a ‘B’ wave which one can normally expect to be a rather sloppy overlapping lukewarm affair.
However, B waves can be triangles, and triangles often start with a sharp, large counter-trend move. If this IS a triangle then the first wave can be expected to overshoot the apex targets, which I suspect is what we are seeing here.
I am concerned about the DXY which has peaked and reversed at the 94.7 target and is now falling. As we’ve seen, weak DXY has been associated with strong equities and vice versa.
Of course anything can happen, but the DXY chart causes me to start away from equity shorts at the moment even though in most cases the 50 MA targets have been met.
DXY chart follows…
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