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Monday could pop and drop via spill up to seal S4H sunday
and then down into S1L monday.Also I am watching the Ftse which is vulnerable to lockdown2
as it will not get the online tech boost like Nas and Spx.
The later may resolve issues twixt the Dow re counts.Never give up, never surrender.
DOW: the DOW decline from last week’s top is interesting.
We got waves 1 and 2. Then the sharp drop was wave 3 exactly 1.618 of 1.
Wave 4 (or B) was a clean triangle.
Then wave 5 (or C) was exactly 0.618 of waves 1 thru 3.
Textbook stuff.
Unfortunately because C waves in an abc are often 0.618 it’s difficult to say whether this was a five or an abc three. However the middle wave isn’t usually 1.618 in a three wave thing, so I’ll stick my neck out and say it was a five.
If that’s true, we’ve had wave 1.
In an ideal world wave 2 should bounce to around 27,824 preferably in a nice clean abc.
DOW daily: if it’s going to be a five, it measures down to about 26,124. That’s just about where the 200 day MA is at the moment.
We can plot an expected route using the usual Fib ratios.
The RSI seems to have failed at the 50 middle line. If we get the five down the RSI should get to the 20/30 area.
“However, we do have another
powerful cosmic indicator of a possible economic crisis and stock market hysteria arising in two weeks.
Retrograde Mars in Aries will form its second (of three) waxing squares to the Capricorn Stellium of
Saturn, Pluto, and Jupiter, September 28-October 19. The conjunction of Mars to these three planets was
present at the time of the stock market crisis earlier this year (March 20-31). In fact, it timed the bottom
of the stock market collapse on March 23.”It’s as we thought and I have had my best day this month.
Not going to be greedy and flat now.
I will go short again if we see S2H tuesday
Never give up, never surrender.
Still looking for S1L but when the market panics
it is hard to seal the intra day pts.Never give up, never surrender.
2008 Credit Crunch I
2020 Credit Crunch II
Banks have learn nothing … I hope they don’t get another bailout
and the BoE can pay £1 to buy each bank.Never give up, never surrender.
Yes we got the sharp decline. However for a number of reasons I have a doubt that this was ‘wave 1 of C’ in a five wave sequence. In the DOW and COMP it looks much more like a ‘three’ decline complete.
In the COMP the market didn’t decline nearly as much as the DOW and SPX and at the low completed a clean abc with a falling wedge for ‘c’ which was exactly equal to ‘a’.
COMP chart…
DOW: the DOW decline was WAY too much to be ‘wave 1 of C’ (unless this really is going to be a massive crash) and looks more like a ‘wave c’ to complete a three wave decline.
Chart to follow…
These things suggest that *either* we are in a falling wedge C wave (and we’ll get rallies with overlaps) or something else is happening.
The strong COMP rally into the close certainly suggests it wants an overlap to confirm a ‘three’.
Unfortunately, falling threes are difficult to navigate with accuracy.
Cheers hatman
Not a clear picture but I think the low will either be at EOM
or in a window provided by the astrosNever give up, never surrender.
SPX: similar situation for SPX.
The drop yesterday was just about 0.618*a. It exceeded it a little, but I think that’s reasonable given the speed of the decline.
I’m counting it as a ‘three’.
SPX: I’m going to guess that we’re looking for a clean ABC from the top where C=A.
I think it can only do that via a falling wedge with overlapping threes.
This of course is a guess.
One point of note is that for the wedge to form, TIME needs to be allowed for the ‘b’ wave up, and it might want a few days. It can actually ‘afford’ to try for the underside of the 50 MA if it really wants to.
DOW: similar situation. If it wants a falling wedge we’ve had wave ‘a’.
For wave ‘b’ it can actually ‘afford’ to rally all the back to the line of resistance at 27,500 which is also where the daily 50 MA lies.
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