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DXY: we know that in the shorter term the Dollar has shown an inverse relationship to the US equity markets. That’s due to Fed liquidity, stimulus etc etc.
However if we look at the longer term we can see that for much of the time from the GFC low the Dollar has shown strength as global money has flowed into the US equity bull market.
So there’s no guarantee the inverse relationship will continue and might reverse back to strength if the bull market continues.
DXY: but for the moment the inverse relationship continues with the Dollar edging downwards in opposite direction to equities.
I’m still assuming we’ve had small abc up, now in a ‘b’ of some sort. The target for ‘C’ is the overlap at 95.7.
Might see some Dollar strength once the election uncertainties are out of the way.
EURKRW: if my extremely negative long term EUR charts are correct then one would expect to see some exaggerated action in periphery currencies.
In the case of the Won, I wonder if we are seeing a ‘five down’. If so, this will be just ‘wave 1’ of a bigger five and suggest Euro weakness/Dollar strength to come.
In the meantime let’s see if the potential five completes and tries to form ‘wave 2’ shortly.
EURKRW appears to have broken out of the C wave rising wedge. If this is a ‘five down’ then it can extend quite a ways lower. This would ‘fit’ with my EURUSD chart and suggest Dollar strength.
It also suggests equity market strength (KRW being a risk-on asset).
It could be an ivs hs on US major stocks and that would
be in line with my view that we are going for a dt.However we look to be at a critical juncture where a
failure would catch bulls badly offside.OE this week with spx max pain 3325
I will not risk money on the outcome but think we
will know much more by monday’s US close.Never give up, never surrender.
In the latest list of worldwide GDP per capita, Korea has now improved to 9th.
UK has slipped to 7th.
40 years ago Korea was almost a third world developing economy. Now it is the 9th most successful. Quite a transformation.
And yet many world indices still classify it as an emerging market.
DOW and NYA: I have revised my medium term view to large ABC up. It’s the only thing that ‘works’. For DOW and NYA the ‘A’ had a rising wedge that made c=a.
The correction we’ve just had was likely ‘B’.
Now we’re getting fives for wave C.
If so, the targets are way higher for C=0.618 and C=A (see chart).
In the latest list of worldwide GDP per capita, Korea has now improved to 9th.
UK has slipped to 7th
Well the rich englishman who swapped the UK for Korea, taking
his billions with him, has tipped the balance.I think his initials are D F … 😉
Never give up, never surrender.
Another week starts. I hope I’m correct in saying Monday is STD 2 so we’ll get a 2, 3, 4 followed by a 1, 2.
If we are wave iii of 3 the uptrend should continue.
My iii of 3 targets based on simple 1.618 projections are SPX 3529/34 and DOW 29,257 or so.
If those targets get hit that will give extra confidence that the ‘bigger five up’ is the correct view.
I was honestly so convinced we would see 3100 SPX. Shame it did not hit it as I had plans to close shorts there.
I remember from the days I used to trade this full time and once it got into this phase of MAD MODE there was never any stopping it. Every dip is bought and every retrace one day wonders. Any very short term downmove would be a outdone by a prolonged grind rally back up.
I suppose put simply it is liquidity and with the talk of yet more stimulus there is only one place that money will go.
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
Yes monday is S2 … I am leaning L
Ftse & Dax look more like S2H
Atm analysis is all over the place !
Never give up, never surrender.
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