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Small short Dow at 28500 … stop 29800 … limit 26100
Small long Dow at 28300
All stops and limits removed.
I will keep the +200pts difference and trade them out next week.
Never give up, never surrender.
NYA: I mentioned yesterday that the ‘bearish potential sideways triangle would fail if fir some reason NYA trades above 13,200’.
We got that failure right at the open today with a gap up to 13,220.
Unlike the descending wedge/leading diagonal (or whatever) situations in the DOW and SPX, NYA sports a plain sideways triangle from the top which I can only for the moment interpret as bullish.
See how the upwards break today came back to retest the important falling trendline…
Agree.
We are not getting the downwards action in any stocks
and that looks like a breather before more upside.I will wait until monday before trading again.
Never give up, never surrender.
NYA: in this earlier chart I speculated that NYA might be in a large rising wedge for wave C. I also suggested that it might need a wiggle downwards followed by a final wave up to give a cleaner ‘three’ shape for the final rise to the high…
Just to double check I went back to identify the exact values for waves A, B etc, and that has given a slightly higher target for C=A of 13,615.
It appears that the sideways triangle we’ve just seen was indeed the ‘B’ wave needed before a final push to the high target…
NYA: so in the shorter term we can see the potential B wave triangle on the daily chart.
We got an abc up, then the triangle which overlapped.
Now very likely in ‘C’ up to the target at 13,615…
NYA: and here we can see the sideways triangle B wave with the obvious upwards break on Thursday/Friday…
This all looks pretty bullish to my eye…
It does look like US stocks are bullish next week against
my indicator which is bearish.In the past the result has been an unsustainable rally.
I will wait and watch.
Never give up, never surrender.
DOW: when I produced that original NYA chart I also transposed the pattern to the DOW and suggested they might be similar.
Here is that original DOW chart, again with the suggestion that another wiggle down then up might be needed to make the ‘three’ more obvious.
I’ve again double checked the numbers and now suggest 29,385 for the C=A.
We can see the ‘three up’ more closely and how the recent falling wedge would fit as a ‘B wave’ in the middle of an ABC up to that 29,385 target…
… and the falling wedge (which can also be a leading diagonal) shows clear completion followed by an upwards break…
The short term pattern on the DOW Thursday/Friday shows a ‘three up’ followed by overlap. So I don’t think we’ll see a strong ‘five up’ to the target, but instead a rather difficult overlapping rising wedge in threes (if it happens at all of course).
No US stimulus before the US election because
who would get the credit / extra votes.No Brexit deal until after the US election.
So it is US election as the main focus, imho.
I should have gone into politics 😉
Never give up, never surrender.
“It is the middle of the Trickster’s retrograde cycle. And this time, Mercury has a companion, for during this same period, Mars is also retrograde (September 9-November 14). What do we know about Mercury and Mars in retrograde? Not much. There is not a high correlation to a trend when either of these lords is retrograde, except when Mars ends its retrograde motion (November 13-14). Market reversals happen then. But in between the start and end of the retrograde motion of either of these two planets, financial markets are more apt to just tread water, going back and forth every 1-4 days. Yes, there have been exceptions to this rule, but in well over half of the historical cases studied in U.S. stock indices, the rule has been …. the rule.”
It does look like US stocks are bullish next week against
my indicator which is bearish.In the past the result has been an unsustainable rally.
I will wait and watch.
Round 1 to my indicator … Dow futures below 28000
Never give up, never surrender.
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