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Dow cash has spilled up and in an ideal world ( for me )
it can spend the rest of the day into friday falling
to complete hatman’s pattern below 28000Never give up, never surrender.
Dow cash spilled up to circa 28300 and has fallen to
touch 28050 … so far. I am out of Dow shorts now.My next trade is to try and catch the ‘l’ below
the 28000 a la hatman chart. Very tricky !Never give up, never surrender.
DOW: if my *guess* that we are in a descending wedge for wave ‘C’ is correct, and my guess that 27,775 target is also correct (both big guesses) then the DOW might have completed wave ‘a’ down of that wedge, now in ‘b’ up.
If so, ‘b’ should be a clean three wave thing and can afford to revisit 28,300 or so.
Dow STD again differs to Ftse & Dax
Both are S4 with Ftse & Dax H and I think Dow is L
IFIFIF Dow is S4L then a decent drop will come late tonight
or early friday in the cash market. Futures are going to
give the tell overnight.Hold on to your hats.
Never give up, never surrender.
DOW: the rally was stronger than I expected. Perhaps too strong.
My descending wedge idea to 27,775 is still valid but only just.
I am concerned that the chart now shows a possible completed larger wedge, with a breakout and backtest of the upper trendline.
I was short from 28,380 but I have closed that at just about b/e because I have a doubt and my plan no longer gives high reward/risk.
SPX shows the same possible large descending wedge. Upwards break through a trendline that had six points of contact is clearly of concern for the bearish viewpoint.
Hmmm… as an afterthought (and thinking out loud) bear in mind that whilst falling wedges are usually a bullish continuation pattern, they can also be interpreted as a ‘leading diagonal’ which usually occurs as ‘wave 1 of something bigger’.
More about this later…
SPX leading diagonal?
On SPX the previous large wave down was 385 points. Let’s say that was ‘wave A’.
The possible leading diagonal down from the recent high stopped at almost exactly 0.382 of 385 points. That’s where wave 1 often stops. Could be just coincidence, or it could be indicating a leading diagonal for ‘wave 1 of C’ where C will be equal to A.
Does seem remarkably suspicious. Still these things have happened before and been just a distraction.
Unfortunately nobody knows whether this is a leading diagonal or not, and confirmation will only be given if/when SPX drops through the low point and indicates that it is in ‘wave 3’ with some five down moves.
So at the moment this is just something to watch out for. Could be nothing…
Same applies to the DOW…
Again, unfortunately we won’t know unless/until it breaks below 28,000 with some clear third wave strength.
Well that lower Spx target would meet ‘K’ s number and would
help the Dow meet my tlf retest.Never give up, never surrender.
No guarantee on those charts. Might just be noise.
NYA: in the meantime, just to add confusion, NYA is still showing my A, triangle B pattern. I had/have a target for the triangle to complete at 13,142 or so followed by a decline to 12,752.
The triangle will be invalidated if for some reason NYA trades above 13,200.
Confusing signals = some traders are about to get a roasting.
My indicator says next week is bearish.
Trade with care.
Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 28500 … stop 29800 … limit 26100
A very risky trade I will run into next week.
If stop hit then I am down the snake and zero profit for 2020
I will adjust stop if allowed as per good kpad trade methods.
That is me done for this week.
Never give up, never surrender.
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