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May aswell create one last thread for 2013.
The last full week of trading will decide if there is a Santa rally
or not. Niether bulls or bears have done enough to fix it either
way so the ball is in the air.Please don’t over extend your margin in the 18th 19th 20th
window as I think we could see plenty of thrashing.Never give up, never surrender.
The 18th – 19th – 20th window contains FMOC, a pomo day
and then quad options expiry.Will the Fed taper in december. Where is the big money
placed for quad OE. These questions are unknowns but
are vital as to outcome of most markets, pre Xmas.Never give up, never surrender.
Live wire start to the week and this rally in eur:usd gives
me another chance for a small short.Never give up, never surrender.
Amazing to see ES futures touch -13 overnight and then to a +12.50
WNER spectacular via a spike basis China and Japan “bad” news.
Bad news is bad news for Bears. Bears need Good news, but into this seasonally bullish period, ie dec quad oe, xmas and new year, usually little keeps it down
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
No surprise re this push higher, we did highlight odds for it last week.
Bears need a big turnaround tuesday to stop this bull running up and
into Xmas etc etc.Nothing is written in stone yet re charts but I would not want to be
too short until we see where this rally ends.Atm I am not thinking new highs, lets look at possible d/t first.
Never give up, never surrender.
Small profit taken on my recent eur:usd short and no more trades
for me pre FMOC, fwiw.Being free to react is more important atm and this is not a time
when big trends start. They already have or are yet to start is
the best odds play, imho.Never give up, never surrender.
The FTSE 100 started what looks like a short term advance but beware, tonight we have an important announcement at 7pm. The FOMC meeting announcement will reveal the Fed’s intentions with regard to QE and scaling back asset purchases.
This could be a major market moving event, therefore my short term forecast can not be relied upon. There are two scenarios; the Fed announces the start of tapering and the market sells off or the Fed delays tapering and the market rallies.
If I had to guess I would go with the “tapering delay” scenario because we all know that tapering is coming anyway. Furthermore Ben Bernanke will leave the Fed in January and I don’t think at this stage he wants to tarnish his reputation a month before retiring. I believe that Fed officials are worried about the effect tapering could have on financial markets. How will the stock market react? Will tapering trigger a market crash? There is always this possibility in their mind. Remember the 10% sell off in May? That was caused by talks of tapering.
Bernanke knows this, and for this reason I don’t think he wants to take any risk before his departure. It is a bit like a football team playing in the World cup final. If your team was leading 1-0 with five minutes remaining, why would you take any risk? You would put all your players in defense and wait for the final whistle. So, it looks like Bernanke will leave the task of announcing tapering to Yellen. Bernanke will leave as a hero, will Yellen be the villain?
Yesterday’s decline pushed the FTSE below its 200-day moving average for the second time in two weeks. Normally the first decline below the moving average is followed by a strong rally, this is obviously not happening. Concerns about tonight FOMC meeting is the reason, investors are not in the mood to go long ahead of this really important announcement. I don’t blame them, I would do the same. What I can say is that there is support below the 200-day moving average, a sell off tonight would provide an opportunity to go long. TL
I have a Cable short at 1.64 just for a pre FMOC gamble really
and it’s not going to bankrupt me even in worst case scenario.I hope we see some fireworks into the weekend, yee ha 😉
Never give up, never surrender.
Cable, took a small profit on the dip now back in short at 1.6450
which is me done for today and maybe even for this week, fwiw.Never give up, never surrender.
Took the 60pips profit so I can stand aside.
Will short Ftse after this blow off … that may not be
until after Xmas so it could be an early holiday for me.Never give up, never surrender.
Merry Christmas to all kpaders, talk again in the New Year.
Never give up, never surrender.
You too Cimac. I wish you all the very best always.
To be successful at whatever one does, one needs dedication, devotion and passion.
I see you here and you have all those qualities.
God bless you always and I hope all your dreams and aspirations come true.
All the very best.
Pal
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
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