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SPX detailed analysis:
Black route – A, expanded flat B, C declines to 2590/2610 area
Blue route – simple ABC, where C target is 0.618*A also at the 2590/2610 area.
Top might already be in, now progressing to target 2590/2610 area, OR upper black target at 3010 might be needed first. To my eye the only way it can touch 3010 is via some sort of rising wedge thing.
EURUSD
This is a rather interesting chart, and what it portrays is confusing and worrying.
Most economists and strategists I follow have been expecting King Dollar to remain strong, partly based on interest rate differentials, and partly on the strength of the US economy. However this chart suggests something else might be happening.
And at the same time economists etc are now changing their tune, arguing for interest rate cuts, recession on the horizon, bond yields going to zero etc etc. Suddenly everything is ‘pointing’ to much lower rates, perhaps even negative yields.
Notice that the chart pattern can be strongly argued as a completed ABC downwards with a triangle in the middle for wave B. If so, then the drop from B to C is exactly the same 35 points as the drop from the peak down to A. So we have a perfect C=A.
And after wave C is that a bullish five wave upwards move? It certainly looks like it. And if so, that must be wave 1 of a bigger five wave pattern that targets a new all time high slightly above 1.60.
If this is all true, the Dollar currently in the 1.13 area will drop 0.47 points or a move of 40%. Is that possible? Does the US economy go into recession, interest rate differentials collapse, and the dollar declines significantly?
Good Morning Cimac Hatman et al
Happy Friday CROOKSDAY also I guess yesterday was “ROLLOVER Thursday” Futs contracts as soon we have SEPT Start
Good Luck to us all
Small droplets of rain turn into Rivers, Streams and Mighty Oceans
Good morning kpad.
I get the same very mixed picture in my charts
as has been expertly outlined by hatman.I am afraid we are soon to learn what happens
when central banks hold rates too low and
buy up bonds and stocks, for too long.The snap back to reality will cause pain.
Credit Crunch II is on it’s way.
Never give up, never surrender.
Good morning Zarif. I hope your Father is improving.
Long time no see.
Is that you in your photo with the pretty girls?
Good morning Zarif. I hope your Father is improving. Long time no see. Is that you in your photo with the pretty girls?
DAD still in Hospital no change but is comfortable that in itself is good news .
Yes Hatman that is two of my Daughters in pic
SO happy to see you mon ami – please if get chance can you shoot me a email hatman – do you have any conatct with GWDAnn ?? I met him acouple times as he came to chester and taht I think his email and phoen changed
Reason asking you shot me a email Hatman is a good mate mione maybe coming Seol soon – is a proper gent you may enjoy
rgds
Small droplets of rain turn into Rivers, Streams and Mighty Oceans
Those are very beautiful girls Zarif. You must be very proud.
I do so love Indian and Pakistani people. Such nice people. I really must go to India some day.
Sorry, no contact with GWDann. I remember his handle from years ago, but have never had any direct contact.
You live in Chester? Historic place. I live in the city of Busan, Korea’s second largest city on the south coast near Japan. We live in the tallest pure residential building in Asia, and we can see the islands of japan in the distance. 88 floors. We live on the 13th floor thank goodness.
Those are very beautiful girls Zarif. You must be very proud. I do so love Indian and Pakistani people. Such nice people. I really must go to India some day. Sorry, no contact with GWDann. I remember his handle from years ago, but have never had any direct contact. You live in Chester? Historic place. I live in the city of Busan, Korea’s second largest city on the south coast near Japan. We live in the tallest pure residential building in Asia, and we can see the islands of japan in the distance. 88 floors. We live on the 13th floor thank goodness.
Beautiful place Hatman where you living – I remember years back you posted pics as it has all mod cons and parking basements and cinema etc
When come UK please come over will show you chester and Home cooking and take you see PAL as well and hit the curry mile
looking fwd you email and contact Hatman
Small droplets of rain turn into Rivers, Streams and Mighty Oceans
Still waiting for the Dow to fall but it does not want to.
Time for another look at the chart.
Never give up, never surrender.
Dow chart shows a potential H / S
It is just possible that in time and price we are still
forming the right shoulder, matching that part of the
left shoulder, formed in late Feb / early March.Dow needs to stay below 26250 zone and has a few days
until time expires.FOMC on wednesday will most likely tip the balance
so we can break out … may be down may be up.Never give up, never surrender.
Cimac, my Dow chart to 27500 is correct (and it might be a load of rubbish because the market might have peaked already), then really the only route there is via a rising wedge as shown on the attached revised chart.
I certainly wouldn’t bet money on this outcome – I’m happy to sit back and see what develops. But *IF* this idea is correct, the current rise needs to be a ‘three’ so it needs to consolidate/drop a little to form wave (b).
I see little reason for the Fed to cut this week (and I think they’d be irresponsible if they did) so perhaps the market is disappointed by that and drops back a little. However, the market will then focus on the prospect of a cut in July and start to rise again in ‘hope’ phase.
These are just ideas. I’m happy to sit back and wait. Something else entirely might be developing of course.
Here’s the Bradley chart for 2019. I’ve learned over time that these are mostly a load of nonsense, but sometimes they can be quite accurate/lucky.
The chart does, broadly speaking, show the sharp rise in the market in the first part of the year. It just about caught the top in May and correctly predicted a sharp drop into June. Might be more luck than judgement of course.
Now the chart shows/suggests a rise into late July/early August. That just about fits with the expectation of a Fed cut in July. And of course it’s better to travel than to arrive, so once the market has eaten up the cut it stops to think ‘why’ and then we get our correction down to Dow 23,000/24,000 in the second half of the year.
Might be a good prediction. Might be nonsense.
Zarif, it will be a great pleasure for me to visit you and your lovely family in Chester. And the curry mile? That’s just my sort of place. I do so love Indian food.
Here in Busan we have a few Indian restaurants but unfortunately they are sort of *Indian Korean Style* so not very authentic. We did try a local Indian called ‘Namaste’ but it wasn’t very good – expensive and small portions. There’s a restaurant called ‘Bollywood’ on our main strip and we really must try it – they do an unlimited Buffet Lunch on Sundays for $15. At that price it must be pre-packed rubbish, but we might be pleasantly surprised.
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