- This topic has 120 replies, 3 voices, and was last updated 5 years, 1 month ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Cheers hatman
Those Dow targets would suit my trade plan very nicely.
Never give up, never surrender.
The euro is in a seasonal up leg vs the pound
so I will look to short eur:gbp late this year.Never give up, never surrender.
What’s interesting about the GBPEUR chart (and GBPUSD) is what could happen to prompt such a move downwards. The markets already know about the political changes, hard Brexit etc, so all of that is in the price. What *might* prompt a move is a General Election and fear of a Corbyn and/or Farage Government or a hung situation. I see mention of a General Election every day in the UK press, including the suggestion that as soon as Parliament returns with a new PM Labour will table a vote of ‘no confidence’ and request a general election. It’s that rather than Brexit that we should be looking for I think.
And if a General Election is called, Brexit will have to be kicked down the road for another few months.
Notice how in the big falling wedge scenario, wave ‘d’ overlaps wave ‘a’, which is what one would hope to see in a wedge situation.
I think Trump is an extraordinarily clever person. He knows that one of the keys to getting re-elected is the level of the stock market. He has been vocal in telling the Fed to cut rates to get the markets higher. I think he will prolong the China situation for many months, forcing the Fed to cut perhaps a couple of 0.25 times. Then, at the end of this year or early next he’ll engineer a surprise trade deal. He’ll be hailed as a hero. With sightly lower rates and trade worries gone, the Dow will rush up to 30,000.
However all of this will instill inflationary pressure so after he’s elected again the Fed will have to start raising rates and then the market will be free to drop to 1811SPX. He’ll have four years to engineer a recovery back to higher levels, and he won’t be bothered about what happens in 2021.
Yep, all your charts make good sense to me.
I will try my best trading the Dow but one plan would
be to wait for 30000 then short it to hell !Never give up, never surrender.
Bradley chart for 2020. Not always reliable. However, note the possibility of a sharp rise to Dow 30,000.
So we might see the Dow get to my 27500 perfect target (or not because the pattern might already be complete). Or we get several months of gentle decline to complete the irregular FLAT. Then, suddenly, all hell breaks loose and the markets head north with gusto to complete wave 5 of C at Dow 30,000 at which point it will be a massive short.
Welcoem back hatman
missed you mate
Good morning cimac et al
Have been AWOL last few days as dad is not so well at all
We pray
rgds
Zarif
Small droplets of rain turn into Rivers, Streams and Mighty Oceans
zarif …. your right, family must come first mate.
It’s great to have hatman back.
May be all our work in keeping kpad alive,
will give it’s own reward !Never give up, never surrender.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.