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Dow looks to be taking the s1h <-> s4h bookends bullish
route based on futs. Need rth to confirm though.What larks we will have Pip 😉
Never give up, never surrender.
For the Dow
If we get s4h ‘normal’ or atleast a decent
push up in the first hour. Combined with
that Bradley ‘geocentric’ for 11th July
then today could be an ‘h’, of sorts.There is still options expiry friday but
is that just a carrot for the donkey ?Never give up, never surrender.
SPX @ Fri 8 July 16
From April 2015: “The starting point for the wave-(C) ending diagonal has been repositioned … the topping target is now 2130”.
The MONTHLY chart shows wave-3 topping at 2134 in May last year and wave-4 bottoming in February, retracing a text book 30% of wave-3.
The target range for the top is 2130 (red horizontal) to 2310 (where wave-5 = wave-1).
FXCM had the sp500 nudge 2140 earlier.
I am going out and will be back for US rth, funtime.
Never give up, never surrender.
ASX 200 @ Fri 8 July 16
From the April 19th update: “If the count shown from the Feb low plays out look for an A-B-C rally to top around 5800”.
The DAILY chart counts (A) & (B) in place and wave-(C) now underway. Note the support provided by the gold 200 day moving average.
The 1-2 count shown for wave-(C) lowers the topping target to around 5630 (red horizontal).
There is still options expiry friday but is that just a carrot for the donkey ?
Didn’t know it’s opex this Friday. Makes sense. Lots of shorts needing to be burned methinks. I don’t have any positions open, and I’m content to wait and see what happens as we approach the Bradley 19th OR the SPX target area 2151/4.
I would not be surprised if we better spx 2140 in rth
today, even if we do a mini pop and drop and rally.Even 2150 is possible with a s4h ‘normal’ late hod.
Never give up, never surrender.
UK will have a new PM on wednesday.
That brings forward the date when article 50 could be triggered
which I don’t think market traders will like, when they wake up.Never give up, never surrender.
Well fridays short not looking to clever…this is overdone though.high today or tomorrow imo..negative divergences everywhere
SPX made an attempt at my 2151/4 target area. Looking at the short term chart, I’ll guess that it’s completed wave 3 of 5, and if so a small pullback perhaps to the 2130 area might happen followed by a final 5th wave spike into the target area.
FTSE was similar – didn’t quite make that 6710 C=A target. Might pause or pull back slightly before making another attempt.
Not sure what the markets will make of this Theresa May character. I’ll guess it will be a case of ‘better to travel’. The Pound looks like it’s got more downside.
For EURUSD I’m working on the assumption that the recent action is a five wave decline not yet complete, currently tracing out a 4th wave triangle.
Target area is the 98/102 range, calculated as c=a from various earlier drops.
I originally thought EURUSD would go back upwards to retest the broken support in the 120 area, and I still think that will happen but only after the current five wave decline completes.
If it IS a triangle, then there’s a bit more action needed, including a last raise into the 114/6 area which would be the perfect area for a short down to 98/102.
If that happens, then I think EURUSD will reverse upwards to retest 120 or slightly higher (perhaps 126).
You might wonder why on earth a rubbish currency like the EURO will rally from circa 98/102 upwards to 120/6. The logic is that the Fed has operated a ‘guaranteed deposit rate’ of 0.5% for banks to park money. With interest rates in the Eurozone zero or negative, many Banks have been shipping money over to their US branches then depositing at the Fed. This gets them 0.5% guaranteed plus exposure to the Dollar.
If the Fed brings the guaranteed deposit facility to an end (instead of raising interest rates, for instance), then the Dollar will start to fall and European banks will start shipping their money back home thus exacerbating the fall in the Dollar and rise in the Euro.
Whether this happens of course remains to be seen, but for the time being the chart suggests a dive to 98/102 at some point in the coming months.
BoE has limited options for thursday and my guess is
they just talk .. maybe take a leaf out of the EcB
book and say ‘we will do anything’.Never give up, never surrender.
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