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Black Swan … I think not but markets do panic.
I would not care to buy this market this week.
Never give up, never surrender.
I had 2020 as Credit Crunch II
So far the only indicator is very high overnight interest rates
which is a sure sign of something very bad in the system.None of this says a crash is due. I think we could stumble on
into a final ‘h’ in 2024Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow 29176 … stop 29500 … limit 28200 ( x 2 )
Testing my theory of an ‘abc’ retrace from ath.
Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow 29176 … stop 29500 … limit 28200 ( x 2 )
Testing my theory of an ‘abc’ retrace from ath.
The ‘b’ may require more time and a fib relationship to ‘a’ or
it could all be wrong !Never give up, never surrender.
SPX: in this chart produced the other day, I suggested that spx might rise to the 3352/8 area either as a three or five. I suspect that it’s a three.
I also suggested that this might be part of an expanded flat thing where the middle wave could touch 3400 and then fall sharply in wave ‘c’.
If this is so (and it might not be of course because it’s a GUESS), then spx should short term peak at 3358 and then decline to overlap the action at 3308, after which it might shoot upwards to the 3400 target.
Pure speculation. I don’t have a position.
I think that spx path is very likely.
That would explain why the Dow is going against my short.
I must adjust my position.
Never give up, never surrender.
As always exact time and price are difficult but
we are heading for a sharp drop, for which I am
now better prepared.Never give up, never surrender.
SPX futures are currently trading at 3362, that’s above my max target of 3358. Of course a lot can happen between now and cash.
If it trades cash above 3358 my theory is abandoned and something else is going on.
Time will tell…
My bull / bear indicator has only been wrong twice
but there you go.Dow futures 29500
It was in fact only one day early.
I have the same set of conditions coming soon.
Valentines Day this friday !
Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 29405 … stop 29850 … limit 28000
A single tentative position going against the bullish rally.
I feel I have to back my work with money.
It may not pay off until red roses time.
Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 29405 … stop 29850 … limit 28000
Closed at 29400
I can do better when Dow cash opens … perhaps 29500
Never give up, never surrender.
Small short sp500 at 3366.40 … stop 3410 … limit 3000
That will do.
In fact I prefer that to the Dow trade I had in mind.
Never give up, never surrender.
Small short sp500 at 3366.40 … stop 3410 … limit 3000
That will do.
In fact I prefer that to the Dow trade I had in mind.
I do hope that my stop will be enough but you can never tell
when the market is taking out shorts before the event !Never give up, never surrender.
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