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SPX made an attempt at my 2151/4 target area. Looking at the short term chart, I’ll guess that it’s completed wave 3 of 5, and if so a small pullback perhaps to the 2130 area might happen followed by a final 5th wave spike into the target area.
FTSE was similar – didn’t quite make that 6710 C=A target. Might pause or pull back slightly before making another attempt.
Not sure what the markets will make of this Theresa May character. I’ll guess it will be a case of ‘better to travel’. The Pound looks like it’s got more downside.
There is still options expiry friday but is that just a carrot for the donkey ?
Didn’t know it’s opex this Friday. Makes sense. Lots of shorts needing to be burned methinks. I don’t have any positions open, and I’m content to wait and see what happens as we approach the Bradley 19th OR the SPX target area 2151/4.
I’m afraid I don’t have a particularly good track record for FTSE. However looking at the current movements I can see the possibility of a clean ABC 5-3-5 being completed at 6710.
The very high MACD suggests further highs will follow later (perhaps months later).
I think FTSE has decoupled from the US markets – it has the advantage of a falling currency making FTSE companies more internationally competitive (apparently 82% of FTSE earnings come from overseas).
Here’s the Bradley chart taken from the Siderograph book. You can see that it caught this latest rally very accurately, and is suggesting a marginal new high around July 19th.
Of course the Bradley often doesn’t work very well, but on this occasion it looks spot on.
My target for SPX is 2151/4, and I have another at 2140.
Looking at the recent SPX action, I can see the possibility of either a) a rising wedge over the next week OR b) an irregular flat for the small 4th wave taking the market back down slightly then followed by a surprise 5th wave up through resistance at 2130.
I happened across a chart of the Wilshire 500, did some calculations, and am rather interested to find that the pattern is almost exactly the same as the S&P.
The final run upwards is rather more clear on the Wilshire, with a double top being the exact target for completion of a five wave C. Note the fib ratio which suggests slightly more upside, and probably matches the expectation for 2151/4 area on the S&P.
Here’s a very long term chart. Basically the 2000/8 correction was probably a wave 4, in which case the action from the 2008 low must be a 5th wave. That can be either a straight up five affair, OR, a rising wedge. We all know that rising wedges are a common phenomenon at the end of bull markets, so there’s a high probability that this is what we are in. My earlier chart counts nicely as a three wave rise, in which case it’s very likely wave ‘a’ of the wedge. If so the coming top in the 2116/2154 area might be significant.
If all this becomes true, the next move by SPX will be a retrace back down to overlap 1565. Unfortunately it might need three or four years to do so, and the price action might be slow.
Chart for SPX. Note that the first complex abc plus rising wedge makes wave A, followed by the current five wave advance for wave C. This is all part of a very large rising wedge that won’t end until 2030/2.
As a wedge is made up of threes, 2151/4 is where C=A for the first big three.
Chart will follow in the next day or two. There’s already a double top in the 2116/30 area, and I agree that it might truncate OR pop up above just enough to force short covering. The ‘perfect’ target number is 2151, but anything at 2116 or above is in the target zone.
For $/EUR I see two possibilities: either a 4th wave (of 3) triangle that will break downwards to 93
OR a B wave that will break upwards to the $1.26 area.
50/50 chance of either, but if my SPX top call is right, the unexpected $/EUR $1.26 will become a real possibility.
I’m watching for a potentially very important top in SPX in the 2116/2151 area. I think this is a 5th wave top. Might be a triple top pattern. If it hasn’t topped already, I think it will in the next ten days leading up to the Bradley July 19th or so. I’d like to see a marginal new high.
Good afternoon from South Korea, where we are in the middle of our short monsoon season. In the space of a couple of weeks we will get 70% of our annual rainfall. Spectacular rain, pouring down like six inch nails. Today we’re having a breather – sunny skies at least for the moment.
Important SPX and $/EUR charts will follow in a couple of days.
